Rasmussen Reports (9/30, likely voters, no trend lines):
Jack Conway (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 40
Undecided: 17Jack Conway (D): 42
Rand Paul (R): 38
Undecided: 15Dan Mongiardo (D): 37
Trey Grayson (R): 44
Undecided: 14Dan Mongiardo (D): 38
Rand Paul (R): 42
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.5%)
In the last two polls we’ve seen of this race (from R2K a month ago and SurveyUSA in August), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo actually had a small electability edge over state AG Jack Conway. Not so in this poll, and maybe the leaked audiotape of Mongiardo’s foul-mouthed kvetching against Gov. Steve Beshear has something to do with it. (In this same poll, Beshear’s job approval is holding up pretty well — a rarity for Governors these days, it seems — at 59-41.)
Overall, these numbers aren’t bad, especially considering that Rasmussen has tended to put out some of the most R-friendly polling results of the major public firms this cycle. I wouldn’t mind seeing if Mongiardo’s stock has dropped in the Democratic primary, though.
RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen
this time with Steve Beshear as well as Obama. He must be using some crazy likely voter screen where everyone has their minds made up concerning most politicians.
Interestingly, he finds Obama’s approval in Kentucky at 47/53. I wouldn’t expect Kentucky numbers that good in a non-Ras poll, so that was quite a surprise. Aren’t Kentucky and Arkansas pretty similar demographically?
He needs to give some of our other less popular Dem governors some tips.
Rasmussen is about as reliable as a pile of dog shit.
Rule of thumb, what ever numbers Rasmussen puts out on any non-election poll is incorrect; and any numbers they put out on elections that aren’t 5 days a way are incorrect.
Most polls show Obama’s numbers right at his election numbers yet most states we have seen show him lower than what he actually won… so in some states his numbers have to be better than last fall in some places to keep him at about 52-47. So I don’t think they are too wrong. Also, it is possible that their likely voter model has hardcore repubs and hard core dems… that would explain Obama’s higher than expected approvals and Conway beating Mongiardo in the general.
remain popular, 2011 is looking to be a boring year, with maybe only MS becoming competitive.
I’m not surprised that Conway’s back in the lead–his little verbal meltdown at Fancy Farm was a single “sumbitch” but Mongiardo’s verbal fireworks were much harsher. I agree these numbers seem … odd.
But is anyone else surprised that Rand Paul is polling so well? Beating Mongiardo and within striking distance of Conway? To me, that’s the most surprising thing about these numbers.
Conway has outraised him in money and he is is the only one who seems in a position to have a chance at beating Mongiardo. Not to mention a tape recording of Mongiardo bashing governor Steve Beshear. If KY dems are smart they will vote for Conway in the primary and end Daniel Mongiardo’s career in politics.
Mongiardo is so much better than Conway despite his really nasty comments… he swears big deal… and he may even hate… gasp… other politician he has to work with. But he is a man whereas Conway is a machine.
Same thing with Paul vs. Grayson (an even easier choice given the info covered at http://www.treygraysonforsenat… ). Its obviously a spoof site but the information checks out. Politics is such a mystery to me I’m still trying to figure out how people can see things so differently.