Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in Delaware, according to two GOP sources connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column.
Castle will be making a formal announcement at noon in his hometown of Wilmington. Castle had been debating whether to run for higher office, or retire after serving nine terms in the House.
I’m honestly surprised that Castle, who’s getting long in the tooth, agreed to fight for this four-year term. I’m also not used to Republicans actually having so much honest-to-God success in the recruiting department, but the NRSC has been on an absolute tear this year. Castle will be a formidable candidate for the GOP here; in all three polls that we’ve seen of this state in the past year, Castle has edged Democratic AG Beau Biden by anywhere from 5 to 21 points. That, combined with Castle’s long statewide electoral track record, is enough for us to change our rating of this race from Safe D (RTW) to Tossup.
RaceTracker Wiki: DE-Sen
when we were sure Democrats would pick up more Senate seats next year.
…yeah, so much for that.
The NRCC is less than pleased.
That was my reaction to this news. UGH!!!!!! First off this probably means a loss, and if it doesn’t it still menas republicans have expanded the playing field into at least 7 of our races
NV
CT
CO
DE
AR
IL
PA
and we are only playing in a couple of republican races
MO
OH
NH
KY
TX
NC
LA
But the ones we are playing with such as NH KY TX and LA seem to be long shots or not quite good enoughs. Whereas republicans look poised to take a couple of ours. SHIT!!! GRRR This really sucks. Then we have to defend our 2006 and 2008 gain after this cycle… we needed to pick up seats this cycle to insolate us for next couple of cycles.
Well on the bright side the Dems can pick up the DL at large House seat with former LG Carney at the helm.
I was getting the heeby-jeebies from all the pre-mature, Castle-ain’t-runnin’-for-jack-next-cycle sentiments that were going around here, and had internally come to the conclusion that the GOP’s recruiting successes have been self-perpetuating to the point that even reluctant pols like Castle are finding 2010 to be as prime an opportunity as ever to move up in their careers.
Ergo, rather than slamming my head into a wall, I look at the glass half-full: we’re almost certainly picking up DE-AL now.
…but I was still dead wrong. I just didn’t think that Castle had it in him. In fact, I still don’t. I wanna see how he campaigns before I get overly concerned. Delawareans won’t just hand Castle the Senate seat. On the other hand, they won’t just hand one to Beau, either. Now the seat must be fought over, which is probably how it should be.
and not good.
I’m not convinced Politico isn’t jumping the gun here, that the vague “highly placed GOP sources” aren’t either speculating or flat out lying, or both. Castle has shown NO signs to date of actually wanting this, and plenty of signs to the contrary, from lackluster fundraising to his age and health problems to the “Florida beaches” comment. Until an actual announcement is made by Castle himself, color me extremely skeptical.
…Unless, of course, he knows something that we don’t, which would pretty much have to be that Beau is passing on the race. Ugh. I hope that isn’t true.
Anyway, we’ll see where this goes. We haven’t heard the entire story yet.
Carney should’ve been appointed to the Senate, and then Beau could test his mettle in the House. Carney would then be an experienced incumbent, a race Castle would be less likely to get into.
This is in addition to CO-Sen and IL-Sen. NY-Sen worked out only due to blind luck (in terms of winning Gillibrand’s House seat).
But Jesus. How could every single one of these appointments be fucked up? This has got to be some kind of record.
I called this one wrong. I really, really, really didn’t think Castle wanted to risk a loss to to Beau Biden. But I guess he’s got nothing better to do.
btw, I still think the polls are showing a high-water mark for Castle. He hasn’t been seriously contested since…well I can’t remember. The DSCC isn’t going to let this seat be lost. The Vice President is not going to let a Republican get his seat. There’s going to be millions of dollars coming in for our side, Castle is going to get outspent badly.
And oh man, wouldn’t it be priceless if the Club for Growth gets involved here?
Here’s the story from the local paper.
I wouldn’t be surprised if within a month John Hoeven announces he’ll run against Byron Dorgan. The NRSC has just been that good.
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…
We are talking about the popular state Attorney General not some schmuck dragged off the street. Not to mention the son of the frickin’ VP. In a blue state. He has been sounding more reasonable lately too. Would go as far as to say disrespectful. And Castle hasn’t run a race in years.
He hasn’t announced yet, has he? If I’m right, why is everyone assuming he won’t pass on the race?
Castle will be 71 on election day and will have had two strokes. This is similar to why Roth lost to Carper in 2000.
Mike Castle’s probably gonna be a tough guy to beat, even in a dark-blue state as Delaware, and even against a guy named Biden. Christine O’Donnell will be irrelevent if she continues on in her bid for the nomination. But really, this is a testament to the GOP’s confidence heading into 2010.
Kirk has 2.3 million CoH
G (the dem) has 2.4 milion CoH
This according to cqpolitics. I think Kirk probably needs more money than G seeing as it is in IL, Obama can campaign for G and Kirk is probably pretty unknown.
A former lt. governor, governor, and multi-term governor was shown leading a less expierenced candidate barely outside the margin of error. And that’s with the political winds less conducive to Democrats now than there were.
Reid and Lincoln are probably (hopefully?) toast no matter what, and Delaware will be very difficult to hold. But Bennet and Dodd still have a chance, and Giannoulias and Specter/Sestak should have no problem by November. We should be able to limit our losses here to 2 or 3, 4 at the most. (-2 or
3, maybe4).We should easily pick up Missouri and Ohio. We have really strong candidates, and the GOP candidates stink of corruption and the Bush years. (+2)
New Hampshire, Louisiana, and Kentucky will all be tougher, but we should be able to take at least one or two of them, if not all 3. (+1 or +2, maybe +3)
There are still opportunities in North Carolina and maybe even Texas.
I’m still seeing a 60-seat Democratic Senate here, but with a new and hopefully more effecitve Majority Leader and without the esteemed Senator from Walmart.
Once the Dems actually start accomplishing something, now that they’ve finally realized you can’t negotiate with terrorists (the GOP), they should start improving in the polls. It’s incredibly frustrating to see the country turn so quickly on the people it just elected in a landslide.
A Senate term is six years, not four. Which makes me question even more what Castle is thinking.
If Beau Biden runs and has the Democrats working then
It Is not a sure bet Castle will win.This Is a Democratic
State.Obama’s popular,and Castle did vote against the
stimulas.It should also be noted that the last poll from
RAS had It closer.
If Democrats pass Helath Care reform with a form of a Public Option,but with no trigger,they will be all right.
I see the 2010 senate races like this
Democratic seats In Danger
Nevada,Arkansas,Colorado,CT,and now Delaware.
Repub seats In Trouble
Missouri,Ohio,and NC(remember this seat flips every 6
years between parties)
Wild cards:Kentuckey,New York(If Patterson Is In the general election and eather Patki or Saint rudy runs
against Gilibrand) and NH(based on some polls)
Democrats will keep Illinois,and PA.Republicans will keep
Florida and LA.
It basically says Biden is going to win because Castle is leading now based on name recog, and most of the undecides are Democrats.
http://politicalwire.com/archi…
There we had an elderly Republicsn incumbent (J. Caleb Boggs) who had a long career as Delaware’s Governor and Congressman running somewhat reluctantly. His opponent is a much younger more energetic Democrat (Joe Biden). The year also isn’t a great one for Democrats (to put it mildly about 1972). Just worth pointing out in addition to the Carper-Roth comparisons. Will history repeat itself one more time?
Carney runs for the House and wins, Castle runs for the Senate and wins, and Biden runs for re-election to AG and wins. To put it another way, the Delaware Way wins.
I don’t think Castle will have much of a challenge from Christine O’Donnell, because most Republicans will realize that Castle is their only shot at the seat and backing a nut like O’Donnell is a one-way ticket to 40% of the vote.
Similarly, there will be no hard feelings from the Delaware Democratic Party apparatus if Biden waits until 2014. Heck, they probably won’t give any institutional support to a non-Biden candidate. The DSCC might be able to beg Lt. Gov. Matt Denn into the race, but he’d be a distinct underdog.
People are being too pesmetic.On hardball Tweety said
Republicans could take the House.Obama’s approval Is In
the 50’s not the level Clinton was at.The media IS already
In the memo that Corzine winning In New Jersey would not
matter.The democrats must pass health Care with some kind
of public opotion.If they want Obama’s base to come out
they have to do It.Even If they have to go reconncilation.
I remember for years democrats being ahead In Generic ballet yet Republicans keep the Congress,and some at one
time thought 2002 would be a good year for Democrats.
I call the senate this way
Nevada-Reid Is not liked but If a public opotion passes
this helps Reid getting Democrats to come out for him.
Republicans keep ailenating Hispanic voters.And Republicans
have their own problems In Nevada that people keep forgetting about.Reid can lose If this Is a antoreid campagin but If they try to make this a antiObama campagin
Reid could pull It out
CO-This can go eather way.Bennent Is the weakest of the
appointed senators running for a full term.But,he might
be able to pull It off.
MO-Robin Carnahan will beat Roy Blunt.I live In Missouri.
She can win.
Illinois-Kirk will not win Obama’s seat.Just wait till Obama cuts ads against him and It Is pointed out Kirk
voted against the stimulas and will be voting against
Health Reform.
Ohio-Portman will lose.Just wait for Ads of him as Bush’s
Budget Director.Remember people who worked for Clinton have
lost.
PA-Eather Spector or Sestick will beat Toomey.Once they
end the primary Toomey’s real record will be exposed.
CT-Dodd Is In trouble but he Is starting to do better In
the polls.He could be the Corzine of 2010.CT Is a blue
state and Simmons will vote against the Obama agenda.
New York-Gilibrand only loses If Paterson Is the Democratic
Nominee for Governor and eather patki or Saint Rudy runs
against her
Delaware-Castle Is a good candiate for Republicans.But
remember Delaware Is a Democratic state.Castle voted against the Stimulas.He will likely vote against health
Care reform.When he starts attacking Obama,Biden,and Democrats he could have problems.And If Biden could attack
mccain It Is crazy to think he would leave Castle alone.
And don’t underestimate Beau Biden.He did great at the
convention,and having the President and Vice President
for him will help.
NH-It depends how accute the polls are.There were off polls
last fall here.
NC-This seat flips every 6 years.
Arkansas-This Is turning Into a antiObama state.This Is
Lincoln’s biggest problem.
LA-Vitter will win.But this shows what a bunch of Hypcrates
Republicans are.
Texas-If Hutchenson resigns this is a wild card My first
Instincy would be to write this off however Texas could
In a few years become a swing state unfortinly It may be
till 2016 that this happens.
Kentucky-My first Instincy would be to write this off as a
Republican win however polls suggest that might not be true.So I am unsure.
Florida-No way Crist loes.
2011.
Senator Beau Biden
…to either Crist or Rubio. He probably has an equal shot against either. Crist will bring in the independents and cross-over Dems, but Rubio will excite the base.
But First Read reports that Beau Biden “might be having more cold feet than some realize, so we’re hearing.”
If true Tommy will be mad and I am not amused.