UPDATE: Daman’s 2010 Senate Rankings: Over The Hump Edition

After taking a month off, I have decided to only rank the top 15 races, due to the fact that low tier races really don’t have many game changing events occurring, well, ever.

On my second attempt at ranking the United States Senate seats that are up for election in the 2010 election Cycle, I will attempt to limit my spelling mistakes, as well as double check my facts.  Apparently I missed a few things last time around…

I rank my races similarly to Nate Silver’s 2010 Senate rankings over on his site FiveThirtyEight, in which, the senate seats that are most likely to change parties are at the top, and seats less likely to change hands are at the bottom.  I am also adopting the arrows Nate uses to tell us whether a race has increased () or decreased () its likelihood of changing hands since it was last ranked.

So, on with the show!

*UPDATE*: Apparently Mike Castle decided to enter the race race for Delaware’s open seat.  This likely wont change the dynamics of this race very much unless Biden announces that he won’t be running for the seat.  If that occurs, that race will easily shoot up to the number one spot.

If the election were held today, the most vulnerable seats would be:

1. Missouri’s Open Seat (R)

Last month, the top spot was held by Good ole’ Jim Bunning (R) of Kentucky.  Fortunately for the Republican party, and unfortunately for us, Bunning was effectively pushed out of the race due to low fundraising.  So now the seat most likely to change hands is Missouri’s open seat.  With the advent of Roy Blunt’s racist epithets and his questioning of Obama’s citizenship, one would think the GOP should try to get someone serious about this seat into the race.  They haven’t.  So while it looks like an easy win to us, the Republican cheerleaders over at Rasmussen think they see a tie with both Robin Carnahan (D) and Roy Blunt (R) at 46%.  I call BS on this poll for many reasons, one of which is that every other polling that has been done on this race has Blunt stuck at 44%, with Carnahan only getting more popular.  This sudden turn around doesn’t make any sense, and while the other three polls are from April and earlier, there have been no recent developments that would have brought Carnahan’s chances of winning the seat down to Blunt’s level.  This looks like it could be an easy win for Democrats.

2. Ohio’s Open Seat (R)

Not much going on in this race, except for the fact that the Democrats are widening their lead over the presumed Republican nominee. Recent Quinnipiac polling shows that both top Democratic candidates in Ohio have sizable leads against their perspective Republican challengers, even ex-repub representative Ron Portman.  The action at this point is who will win the Democratic nomination, establishment Democrat Lee Fisher or SoS Jennifer Brunner.  I’d personally like to see the more liberal Brunner win the nomination, but unless she starts raking in the cash, she is going to be left in the dust.

3. New Hampshire’s Open Seat (R)

Are you starting to see a trend with open seats?  This race has mostly stayed stagnate due to the fact that Republican candidate and former AG of New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte (R) has yet to form any positions on anything.  While I do not know her views on anything for obvious reasons, I would suspect she is keeping her lips sealed  due to the fact that they may be a little too conservative for a light blue state like New Hampshire.  Once the people of New Hampshire hear this, I would expect them to go for Representative Paul Hodes (D).  Another reason I believe that Hodes has a leg up in this race is the fact that he essentially runs state campaigns with a Congressional District that easily encompasses more than 70% of the state (Geographically), while Kelly Ayotte’s position as AG was appointed by Republican Governor Craig Benson, and she has thus never ran any campaign, much less a statewide one.  As for polling, all I got is this Rasmussen one.  Take of it what you will, I stopped believing their polling techniques were sound when I read that Missouri poll.

4. Kentucky’s Open Seat (R)

With Bunning out of the picture, this race drops dramatically. A recent poll taken on this race indicates that Dan Mongiardo (D) and Trey Grayson (R) lead in their perspective party’ primary, with Grayson leading Mongiardo in the general by 4 points. Another poll (beware Rasmussen) shows that Conway is tied with or leading his Republican opponent.  In regards to fundrasing, while it never helped his father in the Republican Primary for President in 2008, Rand Paul has been money bombed, and is claiming that he has raised over $900K with $1 Million on hand.  If the Democratic nominee runs a competent campaign, they may very well win this seat, though it may depend entirely on what the political climate is at the time.

5. Nevada’s Seat Held By Senator Harry Reid (D)

There isn’t a lot to say in this race, other than the fact the the Republicans have a huge field of candidates, though none of them seems like a front runner and the fact that polling from mid-September has Reid losing to no name candidates.  This race could potentially make it to the #2 spot, but Reid’s fundraising is very strong, keeping this race out of the top 3.  I have but one question in this race, can we get a primary candidate against Reid up in this bitch?  It would be a shame to lose a democratic seat in a state in which Obama won by around 12.5%.

6. Connecticut’s Seat Held By Senator Chris Dodd (D)

Since my last report on the senate races, Dodd’s ethics committee investigation has been dropped, and he has been found of no wrong doing.  While this is obviously good news, he still has some work to do if these polls are indicative of anything, in which Dodd is trailing by 5 points.  My personal take on this race is that Connecticut already has a Republican senator, and they don’t seem to like him too much after his endorsement of John McCain in 2008.

7. Arkansas’ Seat Held By Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)

Well color me surprised.  It was but two months ago that I had this race ranked at number 20. Rasmussen (again) has some bad news for Blanche Lincoln, she is being beaten by no names in Arkansas.  While I will stand by what I said last time I did this (Arkansas has elected only one Republican Senator since Reconstruction, who was defeated in 2002.), Blanche should really listen to what her constituents want if she doesn’t want any problems in 2010.

8. North Carolina’s Seat Held By Senator Richard Burr (R)

Two separate polls show Burr under 50%.  I would like to be optimistic about this seat, which has changed hands every election since the 1970’s, but this one depends entirely on how the Dems are doing nationally in 2010, even if Burr’s approval rating is a marginal 38-32.

9. Illinois Open Seat (D)

Mark Kirk (R) has $2.3 million on hand, Giannoulias (D) reported last quarter to have 1.65 million.  The most recent Rasmussen poll has, suprise, Kirk leading Giannoulias 41-38.  I really have a hard time believing the state that brought us Barack Obama would give the Senate Mark Kirk. This is a tossup at best for Kirk.

10. Colorado’s Seat Held By Michael Bennet (D)

I am not nearly as gloomy as Nate Silver is on this race.  The fact that Bennet was appointed rather than elected to that seat is a negative, but I highly doubt the people of Colorado have got to know Bennet very well yet. He currently isn’t polling so well, but it is from Rasmussen, so take from it what you will.  Colorado is only getting bluer though, I think this won’t be such a big race coming into the 2010 election unless the dems really screw the pooch between now and then.  Even if Bennet isn’t the best for this seat, there will be a Democratic primary that will oust Bennet if he fails to find favor with the Coloradan public.

11. Iowa’s Seat Held By Chuck Grassley (R)

Maybe I am being a little to ambitious here, but with Grassley’s approval at 54% and the fact that Iowa Democratic Party chair Michael Kiernan has said that “Chuck Grassley is going to be in for the race of his life” with the candidate the Dems have lined up for Grassley, this may be a competitive race.  After helping kill the Public Option in the Senate Finance Committee, it would be nice to see Grassley booted out of the Senate.

12. Delaware’s Open Seat (D)

Potential senate candidate Mike Castle (R) is being very wishy-washy over whether he is going to jump into this race.  The longer he waits to say whether he is in or not the less likely it is that he will run at all, even though two sources tell politico that Castle is in, there has not been any formal announcement.  A Rasmussen poll indicates that he has a small but substantial lead over Beau Biden (D) in the general with 47-42.  If both or neither run, this race will stay competitive, but if one commits and the other doesn’t, this race drops dramatically.

13. Pennsylvania’s Seat Held By Arlen Specter (D)

Nothing really interesting on the news front here other than the fact that a new poll has come out with both the Democratic Primary and general being a very tight race.  Whoever wins the Democratic Primary will likely be able to defeat Toomey (R), who has, surprise, tried to make himself look more moderate now that there is no republican primary for him.  I still have my hopes for Sestak, though I wouldn’t be heartbroken is Specter won the primary.

14. Louisiana’s Seat Held By David Vitter (R)

So, while this seat likely wont change hands, the most recent poll from July has Charlie Melancon (D) down by 12 points.  While this isn’t spectacular, this poll also shows that Vitter is under 50% with only 44% saying they would vote for him in the general.  There is hope for this race, but I wouldn’t put money on this race until at least a few months out from the election.

15. Texas’ Open Seat? (R)

KBH (R) has announced that she will likely retire sometime late this year, making a special election to be set sometime around May 8th, 2010.  There really aren’t any relevant polls for this race, but the democratic front runners look like Houston Mayor Bill White and Former Comptroller John Sharp, with White being the more progressive of the two.  At this point though, this race could possibly not happen if KBH gets cold feet and bails on her gubernatorial run.



Crossposted at Dailykos.com