NJ-Gov: Second Poll Has Corzine Nosing Ahead; SSP Moves to “Tossup”

Democracy Corps (D) (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/22-23 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 38 (40)

Chris Daggett (I): 14 (11)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s the second poll this week which has shown Jon Corzine with the slimmest of leads. And, as happened on Tuesday, there’s also another poll alongside this one showing Corzine just behind.

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 43

Chris Daggett (I): 14

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±4%)

Unfortunately, this is SUSA’s first poll of NJ-Gov, so we have no trendlines here. But they’re seeing the same thing as everyone else – a very close race:

Back when we last changed our rating on this race, we were at the point on the Pollster chart where the distance between the red and blue lines had been getting wider and wider, and was in fact at the widest it had ever been – “peak Christie,” you might call it. At the time, we felt that this race exhibited a number of signs that set it apart from the usual “unloved Jersey Dem comes back in the end” storyline. Yet we did conclude with this remark:

This doesn’t mean we think Corzine can’t stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.

Well, things have changed. True, Corzine’s popularity still sucks, and so does the economy. But it turns out Chris Christie wound up being a whole lot suckier. His non-stop parade of ethical lapses and his utter failure to articulate any kind of vision for the Garden State have proven that as a candidate – dare I say it? – he’s a lightweight. Even the conservative Wall Street Journal has hammered him for his “empty” campaign. In retrospect, though, I suppose we shouldn’t have expected much more than this from a handpicked Karl Rove-brand US Attorney.

The other factor, of course, is the emergence of independent Chris Daggett, who has almost certainly been siphoning off a good helping of anti-incumbent discontent. SUSA, interestingly, shows that similar proportions of folks who voted for Corzine in 2005 and his Republican opponent, Doug Forrester, are defecting to Daggett. But both my intuition and Daggett’s overall trendlines make me think that if he weren’t in the race, plenty of Democrats would still be defecting but fewer Republicans would be. In other words, Daggett offers an escape valve for some anti-Corzine votes that would otherwise go to Christie.

Add in Corzine’s considerable money advantage and it’s enough for us to conclude that this race is anybody’s game. So we’re moving NJ-Gov back to “Tossup.” Election night should be a wild ride.

43 thoughts on “NJ-Gov: Second Poll Has Corzine Nosing Ahead; SSP Moves to “Tossup””

  1. I feel like Corzine’s internals must be pretty nice if so many high-profile Dems are out there betting he’ll win (and passing on doing so for Deeds).

  2. I recrunched the numbers for men vs woman

    I was very conservative in my estimate giving woman a 51 to 49 edge over men considering that PPP did 53 to 47 and CNN exit polls had 54 to 46.

    The new results

    Christie 42%

    Corzine  41%

    Daggett  14%

    Other     1%

    Undecided 2%

    Corzine can absolutely win this if he keeps pushing the mamograms issue.

    Tossup Babbyyyyyyy!!!!!

  3. but this site has many posters that keep up with the best pollsters going; does anyone here know of a reputable pollster in florida that polls local races? once again sorry for being off topic but a friend of mine is running in a local election and this info could prove helpful; a firm in either orlando and jacksonville would probably most helpful BUT any good pollster in the state would be fine

  4. about this race on their programs and help excite the democratic base in New Jersey. I’m sure Maddow can find tons of skeletons on Chris Christie which will get more dems out to vote who usually sit these off year elections out. We have to win this one. Since Rothenberg refuses change this election from Lean takeover to Tossup, Rothenberg reliability in predicting elections has dropped a lot as far as Im concerned. Even Rasmussen’s analysis is calling this race a tossup and is saying Corzine could win.

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