Rasmussen Reports (10/14, likely voters, 8/11 in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41 (38)
Mark Kirk (R): 41 (41)
Other: 4 (4)
Undecided: 13 (17)Cheryle Jackson (D): 39 (30)
Mark Kirk (R): 43 (47)
Other: 4 (6)
Undecided: 13 (17)David Hoffman (D): 33 (NA)
Mark Kirk (R): 43 (NA)
Other: 8 (NA)
Undecided: 16 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen’s second look at the Illinois Senate race finds a deadlock, with 41 each for Rep. Mark Kirk and state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. That’s a slight improvement from August, where Kirk had a 3-point lead against the backdrop of the summer of screamers, but it still presages a hard-fought race. (One indication that Rasmussen may be looking at a rather pessimistic sample here, though: Barack Obama’s approval rating is 56-44, barely above his national average, in his home state.)
Kirk fares a little better against the lesser-known Democratic candidates who, absent a Giannoulias flameout, don’t seem likely to make it out of the primary: former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson and former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (who is polled for the first time). But Kirk never rises above 43%, suggesting that, alleged moderation notwithstanding, he may have something of a mid-to-upper 40s ceiling in this increasingly Democratic state. Along those lines, Kirk’s hope seems to lie with independent voters; right now, he’s leading 52-23 among the unaffiliated, and he’ll need to nearly run the table with them in order to get over the 50% mark.
RaceTracker Wiki: IL-Sen
…I suspect Kirk will probably find himself with a ceiling in the mid-’40s. I really, really don’t think Cheryle Jackson would be a strong candidate, and unfortunately, I suspect she can probably win the Primary.
In IL, ties oughtta be given to the Democrat, and this tie exists before any campaign against Kirk really gets underway (whereas Giannoulias has had a whole summer of bad press). And I think the fact that Kirk’s numbers are largely unchanged between the different match ups- and that even Cheryle Jackson is only four points behind- rather shows the underlying Democratic strength in this state.
And Crisitunity aludes to here, compare this with the SIU/Simon Institute poll where Obama is at 64-36 approve amongst registered voters and you see clearly how much Rasmussen favors the GOP. No wonder Kirk and Alexi are tied!
I’m going to enjoy Illinois becoming the next New Jersey for Republicans.
I’m sure most voters aren’t yet paying attention to, say, Kirk’s shenanigans on cap and trade.
Kirk’s way to victory is in peeling off enough Democratic/independent voters from the Chicago suburbs and exurbs. It looks like, given how he doesn’t improve much over lesser-known Democrats, that he is struggling to get those voters to go beyond party allegiances. I’d also venture that a good chunk of those undecideds are Democratic or leaning Democrat. Bottom line: Kirk can definitely be competitive in this race, but the further he veers right the more he risks alienating the one group of voters he needs to win statewide.