MA-Gov: Patrick Looks Better, Thanks to Cahill

Suffolk University (pdf) (11/4-8, likely voters, 9/12-15 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 38 (36)

Christy Mihos (R): 20 (17)

Tim Cahill (I): 26 (24)

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 36 (36)

Charlie Baker (R): 15 (14)

Tim Cahill (I): 26 (23)

(MoE: 4%)

This poor poll has been getting kicked down the road behind the scenes here at SSP for half a week now, but let’s give it its due. It sees incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick in a weird position: his approvals are upside-down, at 42/51 — worse than many governors currently seen as losing their 2010 races — and he has an even-worse re-elect of 32/55. Nevertheless, he’s somehow still thumping his opposition, winning three-way matchups by 10 points.

Patrick is one of the few endangered Dem governors who seems to be improving his position as the year wears on, and it seems to be all thanks to the presence of Tim Cahill, the Dem-turned-independent state Treasurer who seems to split the anti-Patrick vote, which, if added up, is the plurality of the vote. The state’s few Republicans are sticking with the full-on Rs, while Cahill seems to pick up the Dems who can’t stomach voting for Patrick or a Republican. This can be seen in the polls before Cahill got in, where Patrick trailed his Republican opponents, versus the ones after Cahill’s entry — the most recent of which, Suffolk‘s previous poll and Rasmussen, have Patrick up by double digits.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Gov

34 thoughts on “MA-Gov: Patrick Looks Better, Thanks to Cahill”

  1. It’s been said before, but the recent movement to Republicans is happening almost exclusively in the South and maybe in Midwestern rural areas. Democrats will do fine in New England in 2010. I expect us to gain a monopoly on governorships pretty easily. The only Dems who do poorly up here from now on will be those viewed as completely ineffective or corporate shrills like Corzine, Paterson, and Dodd.

  2. I suspect if the political climate remains as anti-incumbent as it currently is, Cahill could pull a massive upset. After all, isn’t party registation in MA something along the lines of 40/40/20 Dem/Indie/GOP?

  3. I was looking for Conservative/Moderate/Liberal internals and didn’t find any.  Are there a lot of Mass Dems who don’t love what Patrick is doing but are just weary of Cahill’s centrism?  Also, for those from Mass., do you see any ideological difference between Coakley and Capuano.  I loved Capuano’s anti-death penalty commercial.  Has he out-liberaled Coakley?

  4. Perry looked weak all cycle, narrowly avoided a competitive primary to a same party Comptroller (i.e. Treasurer) who went indy, then won with a small plurality (39%).  All that’s missing is your Kinky.

  5. that will vote for him no matter what judging by the recent numbers.  It looks like a chunk of D’s, almost all R’s, and most I’s want him gone, but as long as he has that diehard base and Cahill in the mix Patrick will still be Governor come January 2011.  This is very similar to Corzine/Christie/Daggett.  Folks hate the incumbent, but the GOP challengers Mihos and Baker are pretty generic and aren’t offering much in the way of concrete alternatives, creating space for an Independent candidate to make a run.  Unlike Daggett though, I don’t see Cahill fading fast – he’s already a statewide elected official and he’s within reaching distance of Patrick.  The reason why Daggett fell was because most voters came to the conclusion that he wasn’t going to win and a vote for him would be wasted, so they went for Christie.  As long as Cahill stays competitive Patrick has a fighting chance as those anti-incumbent voters will be split, but if his campaign collapses in any way than Patrick will have to pack his bags.

    As a side note, it’s become pretty apparent that we had a lot of weaker gubernatorial candidates in 2006 that were largely elected due to the anti-GOP wave (Ritter, Culver, Patrick) and now we’re paying the price in a diametrically opposite environment.

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