More bad news for the DCCC:
Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) will retire after 13 terms, he announced today in a press release, becoming the 4th Dem in a potentially competitive district to step down in the past 4 weeks.First elected in 1984, Gordon had a solid hold on his seat, winning his past 5 re-election bids with more than 60% of the vote; his office said he has never lost any of the 15 counties he represents. He is stepping down, he said, after re-evaluating his future.
“When I was elected, I was the youngest member of the Tennessee congressional delegation; now, I’m one of the oldest. In fact, I have members of my staff who weren’t even born when I took office. That tells me it’s time for a new chapter,” Gordon said in a statement.
At a PVI of R+13, this seat will be even tougher than John Tanner’s open 8th District (R+6) to defend. While Al Gore just barely lost Gordon’s district in 2000, Barack Obama was crushed here by 25 points last year. (John Kerry didn’t fare much better in the interim, losing by 20 points.)
It’s unclear whether Dems have anyone on the farm team who will step up to run for the seat. For the Republicans, a primary is expected between Rutherford Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik and state Sen. Jim Tracy.
UPDATE: Hotline On Call posts the names of a few possible Democratic contenders:
A Dem source points out early names floated as possible Gordon replacements, including state Reps. Mike McDonald and Hank Fincher, Wilson Co. Property Assessor Jack Pratt, Wilson Co. Sheriff Terry Ashe, ex-state Sen. Andy Womack and Kent Syler, a top Gordon aide.
LATER UPDATE: Politico also mentions Murfreesboro mayor Tommy Bragg as a possible Democratic candidate.
RaceTracker Wiki: TN-06
A fresh retirement watch. See who might be next.
Gordon has been surviving as a fairly liberal rep in this uber-conservative district because Middle TN voters did not associate him with the national party and the TN GOP never could make the case against him. Once, however, that changed, he was toast. He probably saw poll numbers to that effect. This seat is gone.
I would keep an eye on Rick Boucher and Vic Snyder, as well as Jim Spratt, Colin Peterson, Ike Skelton and even Ben Chandler.
this is shaping up to be a realignment election, with Rs winning seats like TN-06 and LA-03 while Ds win seats like DE-AL and PA-06.
and frankly I’m not sure I want the DCCC spending millions defending an R+13 seat here.
that we aren’t seeing. Wonder if poll numbers are scaring them off and Southerners are finally finishing off their realignment. And it all took it was a black guy to be President….
for this seat. Spending $$$ to hold an R+13 seat in the south in this environment is just foolhardy. We’ve got better options on the board than this.
Whoever the Repub is will win this one easily. At least in TN-6 we’ve got a good candidate which makes it a toss-up. If Davis retires TN-4 is gone also (I think it might be gone anyway even if Davis stays in)
I really think you guys are exaggerating the seriousness of all these red state retirements. This level of retirements is frankly expected (In fact I thought at this time it would be alot worse).
In the end its likely that the GOP will take c5-8 open seats and beat another 10-15 incumbents while Ds add 2-3 hardcore liberals. A large portion of the losses will likely to be moderate to conservative dems anyway, so the effect on your majority will be even less. BTW nowhere near as bad as GOP senate retirements (OH, NH, KY, MO, FL,…)
First time poster from Ireland. It’s a great site and it sounds like a good group of posters too.
TN Democrats lost the House last cycle and were unlikely to hold the governorship next year giving the Republicans the trifecta to gerrymander. Tanner, Gordon, and Davis were going to get some real ugly districts next cycle that were going to be hard for them to hold as incumbents. These two don’t bother me as much as Moore retiring.
Also, if Colin Peterson retires, it means we get a better agriculture committee chairman, which I would greatly appreciate.
No upside to Boucher, Snyder, or Spratt throwing it in.
While Tanner’s district remains pretty Democratic on the local level, Gordon’s has been overtaken by the solidly-Republican suburbs of Nashville. Aside from Murfreesboro and some of the counties on the eastern edge of the district, there’s not much favorable territory for the Dems there. I don’t see Democrats holding this one.
3:2?
If we can hold a seat like this, I would be shocked. At least it looks like there’s a solid local bench. Speaking of, we still don’t have any sort of candidate in KS-03 and Moore was first to announce his retirement.
And I say this every time but ….please not Ike Skelton, please not Ike Skelton. Just one more term, man, one more term.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
Blaming the WH is not the answer. Cowards.
… that is becoming more apparent every day. We better hope for a significant turn around in the economy next year.
It’s been a rough month since just priot to the off-year elections (VA/NJ) going through today. I hope for an end to this trend, soon.
Is that should the republic party come within a few seats of a house majority some of “dems” might switch sides. Does anyone honestly believe folks like Bright and Griffith, assuming they survive by slim margins would not flip parties if the margin in Congress was very close? Many of these people hate being democrats anyway.
while this may seem likely R, we won’t know until if a prominent D steps up.
So y’all please keep an open mind on this one. Remember the 50 state strategy.
Here’s a rundown so far on open seats for 2010.
Reps (12 open seats) – 4 in danger of flipping
DE-AL (D+7)
FL-12 (R+6)
IL-10 (D+6)
PA-06 (D+4)
Dems (11 open seats) – 7 in danger of flipping
KS-03 (R+3)
LA-03 (R+12)
NH-02 (D+3)
PA-07 (D+3)
TN-06 (R+13)
TN-08 (R+6)
WA-03 (D+0)
Not as bad as many seem to think.
unlike TN-8. Expect more of this in the South. Bart Gordon was one of our more liberal ones down there, and I think he realized how the area was moving, and that his options were voting like a hard core Repub or leaving Congress, and he chose the latter.
Anybody still doubt what I said that we would lose 10-15 House seats in the South in 2010?
State Senator Jim Tracy had the profile and marketability to have knocked off Congressman Gordon in a head to head race; so one has to assume outside of losing the primary to another high-profile Republican, of which there are several in this district, that he has to be straight-out favorite over any Democrat this district can produce. There are a few Democrats in the district capable of putting up the good fight, but barring unforeseen circumstances its hard to see how any of them could engineer a victorious campaign. Mayor Tommy Bragg of Murfreesboro or State Representative Henry Fincher (Cookville) would probably be the best bets to keep the race competitive; but watch former State Senator Jo Ann Graves (Gallatin) as she has a sufficient profile to be taken seriously and little in the way of political capital to risk.
I bet we have 10-15 more retirements in the next 2 months or so and possibly lose the house.