After messing around with Dave’s App to learn about how to enter a good product into the contest, I see that it is somewhat difficult to strengthen all Democratic incumbents. Based on my knowledge about the 2002 lines, I know that many of the districts (Reynolds, Sweeney, Kelly, etc.) were designed to keep GOP congressmen safe. I decided it would be cool to see what a GOP gerrymander would look like, knowing full-well that the GOP will never be in complete control of the redistricting process. Please enjoy a grossly gerrymandered upstate New York that, in a normal year, would result in a 20-8 Democratic congressional delegation (assuming King was made safer and Bishop made significantly weaker).
Please also enjoy something that is probably worthless.
When creating this map, I stupidly closed the tab that had all of the exact numbers for each of the districts. All of the numbers are based on my memory of when I drew them, though I’m pretty sure my estimates are very accurate. I have redrawn some of them to check if I’m correct.
Goals:
Create an upstate map that at least six GOP candidates could win
Force Democratic congresscritters to compete against each other
Ax one Democratic district (I actually combined a number of them, so none was really “axed” per se, but one can argue Arcuri’s district is the most axed)
Map without counties:
Map with counties:
Analysis:
District 17: DARKISH BLUE
Obama: 65%
McCain: 33%
PVI D+13
Incumbent: Nita Lowey and Eliot Engel
Both Lowey and Engel live in this district, but I presume Engel would run in the neighboring 19th. This district is safe for any Democrat.
District 18 TEAL
Obama: 49%
McCain: 49%
PVI: R+3
Incumbent: Michael Arcuri
Keeps his base in Utica, but without Tompkins County, Arcuri should lose.
District 19: LIGHT GREEN
Obama: 63%
McCain: 35%
PVI D+11
Incumbent: None (but probably Engel)
This district is gerrymandered to take all of the Democratic votes in the upper suburbs, so any Democrat running here would be safe.
District 20: MEDIUM GREEN
Obama: 49%
McCain: 50%
PVI R+3
Incumbent: John Hall
This would add a lot of new territory for Hall, and it still has the same Republican bent. I would say that in any regular year, Hall would have a very difficult time.
District 21: BROWN
Obama: 55%
McCain: 44%
PVI D+3
Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey
Hinchey’s district loses Democratic votes. His base in Ultser should make him fine in this district, but when he decides to retire, it’s going to be tough to find a Dem as progressive as he is.
District 22: DARK RED
Obama: 48%
McCain: 51%
PVI R+4
Incumbent: None
This sprawling district makes up the suburbs of Albany and dances around Albany and Schenectady. This district could be winnable by a Scott Murphy-type (who I imagine would run in here instead of the 23rd, where he lives), but Murphy barely won in his home district, which Obama carried.
District 23 PINK
Obama: 61%
McCain: 37%
PVI D+9
Incumbent: Paul Tonko, Scott Murphy, Bill Owens
Packing the urban areas of Albany and Schenectady and combining them with the heavily Democratic counties up north, and you have a solidly-Democratic district (making districts around it more Republican).
District 24 GRAY
Obama: 47%
McCain: 51%
PVI: R+5
Incumbent: Eric Massa
Massa could theoretically win this district, as his present district is hostile enough to Democrats. The new 24th has the same Southern Tier character, but is probably a bit more conservative. It takes in Syracuse’s suburbs instead of Rochester’s.
District 25 WEST GREEN DISTRICT
Obama: 48%
McCain: 51%
PVI: R+4
Incumbent: Chris Lee
Buffalo and Rochester suburbs should keep Lee safe.
District 26 DARK PINK
Obama: 47%
McCain: 52%
PVI: R+5
Incumbent: None
A newly-minted Republican district.
District 27 PURPLE
Obama: 59%
McCain: 39%
PVI: D+7
Incumbent: Dan Maffei
Packs metro Syracuse with Ithaca for a solid Democratic district.
District 28 WESTERN PINK DISTRICT
Obama: 71%
McCain: 27%
PVI: D+19
Incumbent: Louise Slaughter and Brian Higgins
The dreaded earmuffs district packs all of Rochester and Buffalo into one district for a super-Democratic disctrict.
Something we dont see enough here is GOP gerrymanders. They are certainly just as fun to come up with and create!
Fortunately, it’ll never happen.
then a 47% Obama district will be Democratic before long. But one fewer Republican district will make the remaining Republican districts stronger. Cramming Buffalo and Rochester into a single earmuffs district risks spreading Republican support too thin in the remaining districts. However making Buffalo and Rochester 2 districts lets there be 2 solid Republican districts in Western New York.
Extending your 21st into Albany County instead of Otsego lets your 22nd become more Republican.
It’s trivial to make a Staten Island based district that will go to the GOP by dropping some of the most Democratic precincts and connecting to South Brooklyn. Beyond that, it’s very doable to shore up Peter King (46-53) and make NY-02 lean GOP (48-51).
As far as upstate, I tried this and ended up with mostly similar districts. I agree the minimum number of Dems upstate is 5; the North Country has to be tied to Albany area since they require too many GOP precincts to counterbalance them, you have to do earmuffs for Rochester and Buffalo, and Syracuse + Ithaca is another Dem district (I pulled Binghamton in that one instead of going to Rochester). There is also one in the upper suburbs (or 2 if you count the 17th as upstate)
The one district I did differently, I tied Utica, Albany, and the north half of Ulster/Dutchess together in hopes that regional squabbling would allow a Republican to get through. That made the Rockland/Putnam based GOP district a lot uglier than yours, though.