Contest Entry: NY 28-0 with 58% Obama or more. Finding limits.

First days I was try to down the maps, but I have much trouble until the last change in the application what help me very much.

The philosophy for my model is so easy. If you need more democratic votes for make more democratic the districts, you must go where they are, you must go to New York City. That gives us a linear model what seems a rainbow for the redistricting.

My model try to find the limits, and I can draw a map with very much 59% Obama districts (D+7) but not all, I need down for some districts to 58% Obama (D+6). The first limit what stop me making more democratic New York districts is the limit of box in the Westchester County for can access with more districts to the area of New York City. The second limit would be the VRA conditions.

For make more compact the districts, but without lose the linear model, you only need down more districts to 58% Obama.

IMAGES:

New York 28-0 G1

New York 28-0 G2

New York 28-0 G3

New York 28-0 G4

DETAILS:

Only E Massa change his district number. He pass from 29th to 26th. All other democratis incumbents keep his number district.

P King and C Lee, the republican incumbents lose their districts.

Sometimes the areas where lives the incumbents are excessively big. I try to include all the areas in their districts, but for the 2nd, 8th, 14th and 15th districts I need to take some parts for other districts. Knowing exactly where live the incumbents would not be difficult to leave they in their districts.

I don’t include McCain results because i can not see the end of the line of results. The line get cut without pass to a second line.

District 01:

– Incumbent: T Bishop

– Dark blue in Long Island.

– Population: 706,022 with deviation of +5,689

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 02:

– Incumbent: S Israel

– Dark green in Long Island, from Nassau until Suffolk.

– Population: 706,389 with deviation of +6,056

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 03:

– Incumbent: vacant

– Purple in western New York, linear district from Chautauqua until Manhattan.

– Population: 698,741 with deviation of -1,592

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 62%; Bl 7%; Hi 27%; As 2%.

District 04:

– Incumbent: C McCarthy and maybe P King (R)

– Red in Long Island, linear district from Queens until Suffolk.

– Population: 707,202 with deviation of +6,887

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 54%; Bl 15%; Hi 15%; As 9%.

District 05:

– Incumbent: G Ackerman

– Dark yellow in Long Island, from Queens until Nassau.

– Population: 704,967 with deviation of +4,634

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 52%; Bl 7%; Hi 14%; As 24%.

District 06:

– Incumbent: G Meeks

– Dark greenish blue in Long Island, from Brooklin until Nassau.

– Population: 694,093 with deviation of -6,240

– 2008 elections: 79% Obama D+27.

– Racially: Wh 32%; Bl 50%; Hi 10%; As 5%. VRA district

District 07:

– Incumbent: J Crowley

– Gray in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.

– Population: 696,707 with deviation of -3,626

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 51; Bl 3%; Hi 24%; As 18%.

District 08:

– Incumbent: J Nadler

– Light purplish blue in western New York, linear district from Erie until Manhattan (Upper West Side).

– Population: 706,893 with deviation of +6,350

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 09:

– Incumbent: A Weiner

– Light tuquoise in Long Island, from Queens until Suffolk.

– Population: 694,038 with deviation of -6,295

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 61%; Bl 10%; Hi 18%; As 8%.

District 10:

– Incumbent: E Towns

– Dark pink in New York City, Brooklin.

– Population: 693,891 with deviation of -6,442

– 2008 elections: 82% Obama D+30.

– Racially: Wh 26%; Bl 50%; Hi 13%; As 8%. VRA district

District 11:

– Incumbent: Y Clarke

– Light green in New York City, Brooklin.

– Population: 693,935 with deviation of -6,398

– 2008 elections: 85% Obama D+33.

– Racially: Wh 31%; Bl 50%; Hi 11%; As 4%. VRA district

District 12:

– Incumbent: N Velázquez

– Blue in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.

– Population: 695,534 with deviation of -4,799

– 2008 elections: 84% Obama D+32.

– Racially: Wh 29%; Bl 11%; Hi 48%; As 8%. VRA district

District 13:

– Incumbent: M McMahon

– Salmon in New York City, from Staten Island until Manhattan by water link.

– Population: 706,942 with deviation of +6,609

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 8%; Hi 13%; As 11%.

District 14:

– Incumbent: C Maloney

– Dark brownish green in New York City and Long Island, from Manhattan until north Suffolk.

– Population: 706,712 with deviation of +6,379

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 81%; Bl 3%; Hi 7%; As 6%.

District 15:

– Incumbent: C Rangel

– Orange in New York City, from Manhattan until Queens.

– Population: 695,108 with deviation of -5,225

– 2008 elections: 86% Obama D+34.

– Racially: Wh 44%; Bl 14%; Hi 27%; As 12%. VRA district

District 16:

– Incumbent: J Serrano

– Green in New York City, Bronx.

– Population: 693,589 with deviation of -6,744

– 2008 elections: 95% Obama D+43.

– Racially: Wh 3%; Bl 32%; Hi 61%; As 1%. VRA district

District 17:

– Incumbent: E Engel

– Dark purplish blue in the south of western New York, linear district neighboring Pennsylvania, from Chautauqua until Manhattan (Upper West Side).

– Population: 706,897 with deviation of +6,564

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 5%; Hi 10%; As 3%.

District 18:

– Incumbent: N Lowey

– Light Yellow in northern New York, from Dutchess until Queens.

– Population: 695,784 with deviation of -4,549

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 6%; Hi 16%; As 6%.

District 19:

– Incumbent: J Hall

– Green in northern New York, from Saratoga and Washington until Putnam.

– Population: 693,403 with deviation of -6,930

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+6.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 20:

– Incumbent: S Murphy

– Light pink in northern New York, from Jefferson until the Bronx.

– Population: 703,781 with deviation of +3,448

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 70%; Bl 19%; Hi 7%; As 2%.

District 21:

– Incumbent: P Tonko

– Dark red in northern New York, linear district from Oswego until the Bronx.

– Population: 706,364 with deviation of +6,031

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 67%; Bl 14%; Hi 13%; As 3%.

District 22:

– Incumbent: M Hinckey

– Brown in western New York, linear district from Erie until the Bronx.

– Population: 706,466 with deviation of +6,133

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 9%; Hi 20%; As 3%.

District 23:

– Incumbent: W Owens

– Ligth turquoise in northern New York, from Syracuse until Albany.

– Population: 693,837 with deviation of -6,496

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 90%; Bl 5%; Hi 2%; As 1%.

District 24:

– Incumbent: M Arcuri

– Dark purple in western New York, linear district from Ontario until Manhattan.

– Population: 695,810 with deviation of -4,523

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 72%; Bl 16%; Hi 8%; As 2%.

District 25:

– Incumbent: D Maffei

– Pink in western New York, from Buffalo until Onondaga.

– Population: 693,428 with deviation of -6,905

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 87%; Bl 8%; Hi 2%; As 2%.

District 26:

– Incumbent: E Massa

– Dark gray in western New York, from Steuben until Rockland.

– Population: 700,655 with deviation of +322

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 7%; Hi 7%; As 3%.

District 27:

– Incumbent: B Higgins and C Lee (R)

– Green in western New York, from Erie until Monroe.

– Population: 693,889 with deviation of -6,444

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 78%; Bl 14%; Hi 4%; As 1%.

District 28:

– Incumbent: L Slaughter

– Light purple in western New York, Monroe.

– Population: 693,567 with deviation of -6,766

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 77%; Bl 13%; Hi 5%; As 2%.

They are four districts in 58% Obama. You can increase three of they until 59% Obama, but the fourth down until 55-56% Obama (D+3 or D+4) because can not access to the New York City area.

Well, sure republicans will hate this model, and maybe democrats smile. New York gives the chance of a good redistricting for democrats.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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67 thoughts on “Contest Entry: NY 28-0 with 58% Obama or more. Finding limits.”

  1. this might be the map that finally causes the Supreme Court to put some sort of limits on partisan gerrymandering.

  2. The effect of conjoining flowing lines with the occasional splotch of color is quite stunning.  Truly revolutionary. I could totally see it hanging in a museum.  My hat is off to you!

  3.  I really like the creativity and the safety of all the Democrats! My only concern is that this map is a bit too convoluted for my taste and I do not know if the Democrats want to go all out for a map like this. Great map though!

  4. It’s beautifully, but completely absurd as a congressional map. This is taking the contest to an abstract level.  

  5. If you have a large swath of rural western New York represented by someone from the Upper West side you may cause trouble from them due to regional identity politics.  For Example, an Obama voter in the Southern Tier may not want to be represented by a “Manhattan Liberal” even though they’d be perfectly happy with someone like Eric Massa.

  6. I had thought about this in theory. It is quite something to see it in practice! Very colorful.

    By comparison, all the other maps look like paragons of good government redistricting. :)

  7. I thought most districts would peter out around Schoharie and Delaware for the most part. You proved me wrong.

    It’s absurd, but it’s wonderfully so.

  8. It’s beautiful to look at and definitely an interesting exercise, but there’s no way a map with such huge driving distances between one end of so many districts and the other will be approved. It’s impractical. Still, hats off to you!

  9. That is an affront to compactness, good government, and basic decency. I like it a lot.

    I mean, really.  It’s stunning in its stark beauty.

  10. If you draw a line from the northeast corner of Putnam to the west corner of Rockland, in that distance of 40 miles you will go through 10 congressional districts!

  11. Not to be a bitch but I wont give you credit for coming up with such a concept as Im sure many of us have thought in our various redistricting projects to do something of this nature.  

    BUT, you are the only to have done it, and for a contest no less.  What a great job!  I bet it was downright tedious and frustrating and my hat is off to you.

    Maloney’s district is my absolute fave.  Not only is it a hot mess, but when you think about it being the Upper East Side and combining it with sections of what Im assuming are rich GOP areas of Long Island, the district actually makes sense.

    Id tweak if I were a resident of Yonkers, however.  

  12. That is amazing!  lol this is great!  I think this map easily takes the top spot for most whacked out gerrymanders of a state!

    Love It! Love It! Love It!

  13. If the thought of having an entire NY Delegation be made up of safe, reliable Democratic votes, doesn’t make their heads explode, then the fact that the map looks like a beautiful and fabulous gay pride rainbow flag should! kudos! I’m against gerrymandering, but its awesome to see it in theory, if not in practice! Great work!

  14. I love the fact that the Upper East Side is connected to the Hamptons…it’s actually kind of fitting. Also, love that the Bronx is in the same district as Rome.  

  15. When it comes to redistricting I am normally pretty conservative, I like my districts compact and communities of interest kept intact, but your NY rainbow map made me smile. I think I can hear Freepers heads exploding from here. I may have to try something like this for Minnesota.

  16. This is one of the most incredible maps I have ever seen and it is so creative and ingenious. From what I understood, the contest was not necessarily about whether the plan would be adopted in real life, it was mostly an exercise in creating a map that was as Democratic as possible and that was creative at the same time, which this map does so well.

  17. and I imagine it would probably lose, as a White candidate would be heavily favored to succeed Rangel. While there’s a reasonable chance that Rangel’s successor in the current NY-15 will be White, s/he would have to get there by currying substantial support from district’s minority population. Among other things, I imagine the district is vulnerable to a challenge on League of United Latin American Citizens v. Texas grounds.

    Granted, it’s not like it would be impossible to argue that the loss of a seat “requires” that the balance of racial power in this district has to be shifted. I don’t know all of the circumstances around the 2000 redistricting of NY-17, but it shifted it from a plurality Black district to majority White.

    NY-07 probably has a similar problem, though. The point is that I think there’s a very good chance that a judge takes one look at your map and throws just about every district in Manhattan and the Bronx out the window.

    Overall though, good work in the context of the contest. An atrocious prospect in terms of public policy, but that’s not what we’re here for, is it :)

  18. My email tell it is excessively big (10.2 MB).

    What can be the better way for send the archive? Other emails can send this archive?

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