Martha Coakley (D): 46 (58)
Scott Brown (R): 50 (27)
Joseph L. Kennedy (I): 3 (-)
Just to keep you up to speed, this is the second poll we’ve seen of Massachusetts today. Earlier, R2K released a survey showing Coakley up by eight points. We’ve also heard word of a new Dem internal poll showing Coakley up by five.
Amazingly, we may have to stay up way past our bedtimes next Tuesday in order to find out the fate of Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat.
Update: A few more tidbits from the poll: Brown enjoys a 57-19 favorable rating, compared to Coakley’s 49-41. A full 17% of Dems abandon ship in favor of Brown, while 64% of voters still thinking that Coakley will win. (Perhaps the reporting of polls like this one may make a dent in that number.) The poll also shows, unlike some other recent surveys, a majority of voters opposed to health care reform, although perhaps the poll’s wording (“the proposed near universal healthcare law”) may have something to do with that.
Later Update: As noted in the comments, Suffolk is determining likely voters as those who “knew the date of Tuesday’s election”. It’s possible that this is producing an unusually tight likely voter screen in Scott Brown’s favor, but I wouldn’t take that as an excuse to breathe easy.
Memo Update: The full polling memo is available here (pdf).