In the battle of the Steves, two may enter, but only one may leave.
SurveyUSA for Firedoglake (1/12-14, likely voters):
Steve Driehaus (D-inc): 39
Steve Chabot (R): 56
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)
I don’t think you need me to tell you that this is “rough”. Ohio’s 1st District has been a tough nut to crack for Democrats, usually leaning ever so slightly to the GOP. Al Gore lost the district by 46-51 in 2000, and John Kerry came up two points short four years later. Obama finally busted the dam open, winning the CD by a remarkable 55-44 spread. Now, if this poll is to be believed (and I can believe it), Obama has a 42-55 approval rating among likely voters in the district.
Rough.
RaceTracker Wiki: OH-01
that Dems are also in deep trouble outside of the south.
You can see why the President is going populist against the bankers.
Well, at least Driehaus won’t retire voluntarily.
Heres the link
http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerl…
I don’t know they are polling vulnerable Democrats who voted for HCR, along with these extremely loaded questions that sound more like right-wing push poll questions. What I don’t understand is why they are polling districts like AR-02 and OH-01, it’s detrimental for two reasons:
1.) It just makes Republicans see the incumbents as even more vulnerable in November.
2.) It make these Democrats who vote with the party on most issues even less likely to vote for HCR or other Democratic initiatives because they will consider them political detrimental, which is kind of against the point of what they are trying to do. I’m sure next that they will poll more of our more valuable incumbents from tough districts like Perriello, Carney, Space, Edwards, etc.
I don’t quite understand their motivation and why they are choosing these Democrats to poll. Firedoglake seems abosultely nuts.
And I dont really care anymore. Getting 30 million more people health insurance is worth every Democratic loss, period. The Democrats do what’s right and what’s the path forward, the GOP does what wins.
But FUCK, these numbers really suck.
Okay, I feel better now. Had to let it out…
The rest of you, go grab your cult robes (or red Snuggies) and meet in the abandoned church at 11:55 p.m.
Together, we’ll go to a better place, where the progressives ALWAYS win.
/depressed snark
as saying that Steve Driehaus is BY FAR the most vulnerable democratic representative from Ohio. Not even close. The guy was elected mostly because of a huge increase in minority turnout during the 2008 election. OH-1 had never seen a 25%+ black electorate in it’s history. And even with all of that, Driehaus still only won by 4-5%. In this environment with the turnout being what it is, I would be absolutely stunned if he managed to win the rematch with Chabot.
That being said, I think that Driehaus isn’t going anywhere, and that these two are probably headed for a rubber match in 2012, where the turnout will be in Dreihaus’s favor again.
Check out the crosstabs:
http://elections.firedoglake.c…
They didn’t interview more than a handful of people under the age of 35.
No wonder the poll looks so bad if you exclude the age demographic most likely to vote dem.
Welcome to the club guys.
as the AR-02 poll? They were both done by the same organization.
So we start with:
Chabot 56%, Dreihaus 39%
Then they again ask all those anti-health care bill questions, and then ask what would voters do if Dreihaus voted for the bill. After all that?
Chabot 56%, Dreihaus 38%
Chabot gains no ground from that, even after all those questions. Dreihaus only loses ONE point, well within the margin of error.
This will be a tough hold but Drihaus can still hold it. This seat is actually similar to southern seats in that the intensity and turnout of the black vote in Cincy is the deciding factor. Most of the suburbs in this district are still red except for Forest Park, and Springdale. There has been movement towards the Dems in the last few years in Hamilton County, controlling the county commission for the first time in 60 years. There was a good vote for Obama, even doing well in the suburbs. Hamilton County is no longer a GOP stronghold but it will oscillate between the parties. Chabot and Dreihaus share the same political base among the german catholic neighborhoods in price hill and western hills. I would expect OFA and the other groups will work hard to hold this seat along with the DCCC. While AR-2 outside of Little Rock has been moving away from the Dems, OH-1 is a seat the Dems need to hold.
You’ve included the 44 “likely D” races in the “84 Dem held seats” number, which Cook defines as
I don’t see more than 1 or 2 of these “likely D” races becoming competitive (there are always a few surprises in house races) – unless there’s a “double dip” in the current economic downturn. (A double dip is unlikely in my mind, but we’re certainly not out of the woods in that respect.)
And even then, there is no Newt to take advantage, no “contract with America;” unlike in ’94, campaign balance sheets favor Ds.
I think it more likely that maybe 1/4 to (my worst case) 1/2 of the lean D and “toss up” D seats are lost, depending on the unemployment rate in about June (or whenever the image of the current economic recovery is frozen in voters’ minds).
Chabot was an habitual incumbent with less than 55% numbers against dem challengers and now seems he can break his habitual level when he was incumbent.
I think this poll is only a call for Chabot run a rematch.
OH-01 is a D+1 district in red areas of a purple state. Democrats only have close results in 2008 in D+ districts in red or purple states in:
– LA-02 (D+25): J Cao (R) defeat W Jefferson.
– OH-12 (D+1): P Tiberi (R) win the reelection.
– OH-15 (D+1): MJ Kilroy (D) defeat S Stivers (R) for the open seat by less than 1%.
– OH-01 (D+1): S Driehaus (D) defeat S Chabot (R) incumbent by less than 5%.
All other D+ districts in red or purple states give victories with more than 10% for dems.
J Cao, P Tiberi and S Stivers will run again and this poll find S Chabot consider a rematch. S Chabot is one of few bids of recruitment what republicans can make in D+ territory. This poll is not casual.
I think S Chabot finally will not run.