I recognize that there is an intense level of anger and frustration among we of the Democratic base right now, faced as we are with a scenario most of us could not have conceived in our worst nightmares, however I think the rabid anti-Coakleyism spreading around the internets these days is getting just a wee bit unfair. In this respect I largely agree with Nate Silver – yes, she is a boring candidate, and yes, she did run a dull, almost absentee campaign… but when you’re in Massachusetts, and you’re a high-profile statewide elected official, and you’re running as a Democrat against a fairly obscure state senator to succeed Ted Kennedy, none of those things should be unforgivable offenses. Let’s face it: there is a LOT of Monday morning quarterbacking going on here. To be sure, there were plenty of people (myself included) who had reservations about her in the primary, but clearly none of those concerns translated into anything near the blind, existential panic we are now facing as we creep up upon January 19th. If anyone can point to a post he/she left, here or anywhere else, indicating his/her grave uneasiness about the threat posed by Scott Brown in a general election, I’d love to see it – I’m genuinely curious.
This is obviously not to say Coakley’s camp is blameless. Going dark for a month was malpractice of the highest order, and her campaign manager should never be allowed to work in American politics ever again. But the over-the-top vitriol being directed at the candidate herself is starting to become unseemly, and frankly sort of classless. I doubt any of us can imagine what its like to be in her shoes at this very moment, being pegged by pundits and partisan activists nationwide as the pariah who single-handedly flushed the Democratic supermajority – and by extension, Ted Kennedy’s dream of universal healthcare – down the drain. By all accounts, Martha Coakley is a capable public servant, a fairly committed progressive, and by almost any measure a more qualified candidate for the United States Senate than Scott Brown. Yes, her probable defeat on Tuesday will almost certainly mark the end of her political career, and that can be argued as being perfectly appropriate, but I hardly think it cause for open celebration.
Just as determinate as any particular fault of the Coakley campaign is, I think, the basic issue highlighted by PPP in the poll that touched off this horrific week: a profound disparity in enthusiasm between D’s and R’s, the very same one reflected in the outcomes of the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. The electorate turning out for special/off-year downballot elections is simply a different universe of individuals than those who came to the polls in 2008. Beyond the predictable backlash from the right, who knows how many people voted for Obama having never voted in their lives, and may never vote again? I think we can anticipate the relative drop-off from here out to be comparable to what we have seen thus far, and that alone augurs poorly for our near-term electoral prospects – whether or not we have Coakleys or Capuanos on the ballot.
Coakley knew the stakes, and she took the voters of Massachusetts for granted. She did not ask for their votes, but rather assumed she was going to get them. Martha Coakley largely put herself in this box. It’s hard to sympathize. However, she’s definitely not alone in the blame game. Blame Congress for months of piddling with healthcare reform. Blame the national Dems for not working to assure a blowout victory here much sooner. Blame the Democratic (un)faithful who aren’t planning to show up.
And perhaps most of all, credit Scott Brown. Some of you no doubt remember the Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl in the early 1990’s, when Leon Lett of the Cowboys ran towards the end zone with nobody near him and started celebrating with his hands up when he got inside the 10 yard line. Don Beebe of the Bills streaked down the field and knocked the ball out of Lett’s hands just before Lett reached the end zone, and the Bills got the ball back. Scott Brown is Don Beebe. Martha Coakley is Leon Lett.
Let this be a lesson to everyone not to take things for granted. All good things in life must be earned, unless you are a member of the Bush family.
The negative ads they swooped in with appear to have backfired in a big way.
Do you think Obama doing a “quick” visit is the writing on the wall, or is the WH expecting a turn around over the next 48 hrs?
If the environment is an obvious loss on Tue., is there possiblity of saving resources (ad cash), or drag this one over the finish line? Still can’t believe the DSCC/Coakley ads have had a negative effect, this may be WAY over saturation to have any effect this late in game.
This has been an amazing race to watch as a political science major, as a non-typical blue state race, but also highly sad.
When the media, the blogosphere, and party activists are performing post-mortems on a campaign that pundits rate as a toss-up, it seems very premature to me. (Not dissing the folks writing and weighing in with opinions here or elsewhere – just pointing out that the election isn’t over.)
I understand that there is a great deal of angst (which I share) about the possible outcome on Tuesday — but this race is far from over, and there are many many reasons to believe that Coakley, not Brown, is going to win.
Yes, Scott Brown and the political environment in MA caught Coakley and others off guard, but the dynamics of a special election are often different than what happens in a general election – and there are unique circumstances of MA that may not be repeated in November (a primary/special election period spanning the holidays, a lack of national party involvement until very late, a surprisingly capable Republican candidate catching a duller Democrat unawares,a Democratic campaign that was designed on a faulty set of assumptions about the likely voter pool, low/unpredictable turnout, etc).
But the wake-up Democrats in MA (and nationally) have received in the last week MAY be enough to pull this thing out — hence the Obama appearance, the Vicki Kennedy ad, the infusion of MA and national political talent into the campaign, the rapid development of a significant GOTV effort, the sudden involvement of unions and advocacy groups, enhanced examination of Brown’s record, and the “nationalizing” of the campaign).
It remains to be seen if it will be too little too late, but there is a good chance that it will work. I remember a very very similar dynamic at work when John Kerry was challenged by William Weld in 1996 — in the closing weeks it suddenly looked as though Kerry might lose, and the Kennedy folks and national party went into overdrive, producing a 52-45 Kerry victory. Brown will only win if we don’t manage to rouse the Democratic voters in the state into understanding what is at stake, to not allow Ted Kennedy’s legacy to be destroyed by a right-wing Republican taking his seat.
Before we write this thing off as a “probable” Brown victory, we’ve still got 3 1/2 days to make sure it doesn’t happen. (I’m heading to Springfield tonight and will be there through the election volunteering). Even if you can’t get to MA, there are plenty of opportunities to do GOTV calls from home, as well as contacting all family and friends in MA. That is a far better way to be spending our time and energy instead of attempting to dissect the remains of a race that we still can (and must) win – there will be plenty of opportunity to analyze what happened and the national implications after the votes are counted – when Senator Coakley is sworn.
Get out and vote. Get your friends out to vote. Make phone calls hold signs. Use Facebook, twitter, anything. We can do this!!!!!!!!!!
There has been a flood of volunteers at the campaign, in Massachusetts and countrywide. Make as many calls as you can where ever you are in the county. Call your friends, neighbors, use twitter, facebook. There are thousands and thousands and thousand and thousands of loyal democrats in Massachusetts who don’t know an election is happening on Tuesday and will gladly, if informed go out and vote. Lets win this!!!!!
With that recent statement, on a radio show, saying devout Catholics shouldnt work in an emergency room. Or ‘probably shouldnt’ (not that it makes much of a difference). I can only guess because of the whole abortion thing. MA may be a secular state but it still has alot of devout Catholics (South Boston, the South Shore, the industrial cities/towns, etc)…many of whom are also devout Democrats. The last people she wants to piss off are devout Dems. Even many pro-choice devout Dems would feel insulted by that comment. Now maybe she was taken out of context but the quote will still hurt her. I just dont know if the Brown campaign or anyone else will take advantage of it in a big way. As that is a pretty darn negative attack.
Really, i think this goes to show shes just not a competent campaigner.
If a Democrat cant win in what is probably the bluest state in the country, how can a Democrat like Charlie Melancon or even Paul Hodes win in a state that is far less favorable?
And this probably goes against the CW, but I think what PPP seems to be seeing is better news than you’d think:
For me, close favors Coakley, just because the strength of the Massachusetts Democratic machine is probably worth a couple of points for Coakley. Of course, that could just be my overly hopeful side (I try to get rid of that, but I guess I’m just an optimist at heart!)
http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit…
“One option no one seems to be seriously discussing is delaying Brown being seated, though Republicans have already dispatched legal teams to Massachusetts in anticipation of any possible recount or other legal challenge that could delay Brown’s certification — if, of course, he wins.”
I would like nothing more than for Scott Brown to win and for Obamacare to be defeated, but I think this is an instance where the polls have missed the point. This isn’t some sleepy special election where a disenchanted base and a lackluster campaign leads a party to lose a safe seat, like with Travis Childers in 2008 or Dick Thornburgh in 1991. This is attracting huge national attention, since the fate of the Obama administrations, and indeed the nation, falls upon this one Senate seat.
Thus, I suspect that the composition of the voters that turn out will be a lot different than the models which these pollsters are using indicates. Turnout will probably be upwards of 60%. And as we all know, as aggregate turnout increases, the performance of the Democrat increases, as most disengaged non-voters are liberals.
Yes, Martha Coakley is an incompetent politician and has run one of the worst campaigns in recent memory. Certainly worse than Creigh Deeds. But I remain deeply skeptical that a Scott Brown victory is possible in this environment. If the media hadn’t latched onto this race and if the fate of the nation didn’t hinge on it, then I’d be more optimistic that the good guy could win. But the notion that Scott Brown can win is based on screwy special-election turnout, which isn’t going to happen.
I will make a radical prediction- Marth Coakley wins by 10 points.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
WHAT:
Scott Brown for U.S. Senate , “The People’s Rally”
WHO:
Scott Brown, candidate for U.S. Senate
Curt Schilling, Red Sox legend
Doug Flutie, former Boston College star and NFL great
***JOHN RATZENBERGER, FROM CHEERS***
Ayla Brown, Scott’s daughter
supporters are acting naughty
http://twitter.com/DemocratsDo…
Report intimidation by Brown supporters and voting problems here:
http://www.marthacoakley.com/c…
I bet alot of you (including myself) are doing this already but just in case you are not and you are able to, call Massachusetts. We have to get Coakley supporters out!
http://my.barackobama.com/page… This link will take you to the call site. Also, please post comments on daily kos, open left and other Liberal blogs urging people to call Massachusetts. It’s all about turnout! We need Obama’s agenda and health care reform!
Yesterday everything was fine. Today when I clicked to volunteer it brought up a page saying “Thanks for Using Neighbor to Neighbor. We’ll be back in touch soon!” Did we crash the site?
Also all those Democratic strategists anonymously saying Coakley’s doomed should be found out and fired unless their intention is to convince volunteers we’re wasting our time.
in any major race (President, Senate, House, Governor) if Brown wins (and if the election was today, he likely would).
Anyone have a bigger upset that I forgot?