Looks like one big shoe is already dropping in the wake of the Massachusetts special election — one more big-name Republican is weighing a Senate bid, against a Democrat previously thought to be unassailable: Evan Bayh.
In the wake of winning MA, GOPers are looking to put 1 more state in play if they can convince House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence to run against Sen. Evan Bayh (R-IN).
Pence and his aides will meet with top staffers at the NRSC tomorrow, several sources tell Hotline OnCall, where they will discuss a possible bid. The NRSC has polled IN, and their survey shows Pence in a competitive position, though he trails Bayh in initial matchups.
My first response, when this was bubbling up as a rumor, was puzzlement, as Mike Pence would be giving up a coveted #3 slot on the GOP leadership ladder for an uphill run against a man with huge name rec and an eight-digit war chest. Pence seems better-known among national-level news junkies than he probably is in, say, Gary or Evansville or anywhere else outside his district — and he starts way behind the 8-ball on fundraising, with only $462K banked (thanks to not having to run competitive races in his red district). Also, rumors have previously had Pence, if looking for any promotion, to be considering the Presidential race in 2012 instead (although he’d have a number of movement conservative activists in his corner, he’d still be an extreme dark horse there, though).
Still, with his House leadeship position, he should be able to start filling his coffers quickly if he did jump into the Senate race. And as for the national ambitions, the NRSC has apparently has though that through, too: “Senate strategists plan to point out those ambitions are difficult to achieve without a Senate seat.”
One other point: ex-Rep. John Hostettler is already in the race for the GOP, along with a few other odds and ends (maybe most notably state Sen. Marlin Stutzman). I’m sure, though, the NRSC would like an upgrade from the often-embarrassing Hostettler, but given Hostettler’s previous track record of uncooperativeness with the national party, he seems unlikely to step aside in a primary. Pence could find himself stepping into an unenviable situation that replicates a lot of other Republican Senate primaries: he’d be running as the “establishment” candidate against a movement conservative outsider even further to his right.
RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen
sadly I don’t think that the risk that he survives the teabaggers and goes on to be formidable in the general election is worth it.
In the end, I don’t expect Pence to run — and as the post says, he’s a high-ranking member of the GOP House leadership, and that’s a lot to give up.
That said, as wacky as he is, the guy has some decent political skills. Of all the crazies in the IN House Delegation, he’s the one I’d fear the most. Runs good campaigns, and comes off well on TV.
That said, I think it’s unlikely he’ll run, and unlikely he’d win if he does. Evan Bayh is a fundraising machine, and was a very effective spokesman for first Hillary Clinton and then President Obama in ’08. As much as we don’t always like him, it’s not an exaggeration to say that Obama would probably not have carried the state without Bayh’s help. The problem with Evan is no one (perhaps not even him) knows what his core convictions are. If nothing else, a strong Pence campaign would force Bayh to spell those out.
this idea. I mean, I don’t like it, but I’d rather see a credible challenger to him than certain other Democrats. And Bayh’s been making all this money off being a corporate lapdog — might as well use it.
What I hate is the idea of the DSCC spending defensive money on his triflin’ ass. I’m not the kind of Democrat who would rather have a Republican who votes against me 100% of the time than a Dem who does 50%. But on the other hand, ugh, Evan Bayh.
on the IN Senate in over a year I believe.
Though in this Political Climate right now anything is possible, sadly.
IF Pence jumps in Bayh could even retire. He hadn’t had a Top-Tier Challenger since he won his first Race as SoS.
Hostettler alienated a good chunk of conservatives from his own district in his final term or so in Congress. He was just THAT stupid. Perhaps he’s popular with some of the tea-party folks, but otherwise, my understanding is Indiana Republicans don’t exactly look upon Hostettler with a whole lot of nostalgia. Bayh would’ve been Solid-to-Likely dem in that race. Against Pence, it’s a toss-up.
This was posted by Cilizza in December about Bayh:
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
Read this Piece:
All of which means that Bayh doesn’t have an obvious next step in politics. It’s why he seriously considered retiring in 2010 — senior Democratic officials acknowledge they were genuinely concerned he might step aside — before ultimately deciding to seek a third term in 2010.
I wonder if Bayh Retirement Rumors flying again if Pence jumps in.
Evan Bayh will crush him. The RSCC will get their hopes up and spend lots of money they could have used elsewhere and end up with nothing but a bad result.
And I like Bayh, because he is a winner. I’m much to the left of him, but lately I’ve taken a liking to democrats that win elections.
Let’s stop this hate against moderate democrats. Agree with them or not, they are the ones that makes us a party acceptable for a lot of voters. The GOP have turned themselves into a extremist teabagging jesus party that nobody really likes, while we are able to recruit people like Specter (and if anyone are in doubt, that’s a good thing).
The only good reason for a primary challenge, is if someone obviously are in deep trouble, will not step down and give someone with a better shot a go, and there is no circumstances were we should let them go down in flames out of respect for their service. I would support a Wes Clark challenge in Arkansas, but not a left wing charge against Bayh.
BTW this is not to say that it was not right to challange LIEberman in 2006. Evil, evil man.
Pence would do this. He’d probably have a much cleaner shot in 2012, when Lugar will most likely retire
This race would seriously dent either Evan Bayh or Mike Pence. I don’t like either of them. Pence is probably less openly for sale than Evan Bayh (whose with brings up a million bucks a year simply by sitting on insurance company boards) but his positions tend towards the crazy. The good thing is that Bayh might never again have the money on hand to be a looming national presence.
Too bad they both can’t lose.
was vulnerable to a challenge by a populist conservative, because Bayh is so deeply a corporate insider moderate deep in lobbyist filth. But this also makes it difficult for a GOPer to raise business cash or win moderate suburbanites.
If I were Evan Bayh, I would paint Mike Pence as an ultimate insider before he can burnish his populist credentials.
Birch Bayh was a great US Senator. He helped orchestrate some solid, progessive, social legislation during his tenure. For those who don’t know this tidbit, Birch helped save Teddy Kennedy’s life by pulling Ted out of a plane crash.
Evan is too conservative for my taste, but I’ll take an Evan Bayh over a Pence or Hostettler any day. Unfortunately for Evan, if Pence runs, this race will be a hard election for Evan to win, no matter how much money Evan has in the bank.
A Pence candidacy is about the only thing imaginable that could force me to vote for Bayh in spite of myself.