AR-Sen, IL-Gov: Ratings Changes

  • AR-Sen (Lincoln): Tossup to Lean R
  • Rep. John Boozman officially entered the Arkansas Senate race this weekend. While he had telegraphed this for weeks, his official entry means that there’s finally a top-tier candidate for the Republicans. This race was a tossup even with a grab-bag of state legislators and self-funders, thanks to the Democratic brand’s decay in Arkansas and Blanche Lincoln’s play-it-down-the-middle-and-appeal-to-nobody approach. Two polls this week gave Boozman a lead over Lincoln in the 20-point ballpark, though, indicating that a stronger Republican probably pushes this one out of Lincoln’s grasp.

    Boozman will still have to fight his way out of the crowded GOP primary — state Sen. Gilbert Baker and businessman Curtis Coleman aren’t getting out of the way (although some of the lesser opposition, like Tom Cox and Buddy Rogers, have bailed out), and Boozman’s long House tenure may be a liability in an anti-incumbent, anti-establishment year. His base in the state’s dark-red northwest will probably see him through the primary, though.

  • IL-Gov (Quinn): Likely D to Tossup
  • It’s a bit of a surprise that Pat Quinn survived the primary election, as the primary campaign revealed he had something of a glass jaw, and the last few polls of the race showed him with terrible approval ratings and getting edged by challenger Dan Hynes. It’s never a good sign to have a bloody, depleted victor staggering out of a barely-won primary, and his problems are compounded by general anti-incumbent fervor and bad economic conditions in the Rust Belt, which is enough for us to move this race all the way up to Tossup.

    Still, there are a few things that Quinn has in his favor: he has an extremely long period (nine months) to rehabilitate himself, while the Republicans won’t even have a nominee for a while, and most likely it’ll be Bill Brady — while Illinois throughout the 80s and 90s was happy to elect moderate, suburban Republicans to statewide office, it remains to be seen whether a socially conservative downstate resident can get over the hump. Finally, the Scott Lee Cohen sideshow quickly and suitably resolved itself this weekend, leaving the state party to pick a more appealing running mate… although, after some initial lukewarm interest, Hynes has now taken his name out of consideration for a unity ticket.

    You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

    RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen | IL-Gov

    20 thoughts on “AR-Sen, IL-Gov: Ratings Changes”

    1. However, I’m sure the Cook political report will jump all over the Boozman entry to push their own narrative of a sinking ship for Dems – it seems they’re increasingly taking the fox news path. Biden decides not to run and they move Delaware straight to solid R without even giving a thought to Chris Coons’s entry. But when Blumenthal runs in place of Dodd that only makes it lean D. What a joke. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just jumped Arkansas all the way to super-solid R.

    2. I think P Quinn defeat in the primary a strong, very strong challenger and this is not sign of weakness, I think this is sign of strenght. I can not assume Hynes voters will think: “without Hynes, better a republican”. Sorry, but I can not assume that.

      I think D Hynes has not the correct attitude in this moment. Im more critic with Hynes than with Quinn. And Hynes let open the door for Topinka return, an important mistake for me. Quinn take office the same month than Obama, he can not to hold responsible of all in Illinois.

      The republican primaries out the republicans with higher name id and with better polls, and let a candidate what may need a recount for assure the nomination. With a 20% of the votes the republican candidate has very hard work in next months in his own side. He seems not a new Scott Brown, who run alone since the first day with all republicans helping him.

      I think Hynes is stronger than Brady, and Quinn defeat Hynes, that should be a good point for Quinn chance of win in nombember. With Cohen out, I think Quinn’s chance of win improve after the primaries, specially after the republican primary what end not still.

      Hynes should support Quinn over the republicans, but if he denies the support, in my mind only lose Hynes.

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