In my last diary, I predicted that the Democrats would lose 30-35 seats in 2010. 65% of fellow SSP devotees agreed with my assessment, so I think I’m on the right track! Thanks to all of those who voted on my poll.
Overview
The 2010 election is 9 months away, and in politics that is an eternity. Many things can happen that will either shift the electorate to the Democrats or to the Republicans. As such, I tried my best to group the vulnerable Democrats accordingly.
The 10 most vulnerable Democratic seats
There are 10 seats that I currently see that will be hard to defend even if 2010 turns out to be a strong Democratic year (keeping in mind that the incumbents in several of these seats are not running for reelection). These seats are as follows: LA-03, TN-06, AR-01, TN-08, AR-02, ID-01, KS-03, AL-02, MD-01, and VA-05.
These seats would be hard for us to defend no matter what the political environment entails. Important to note that 7 of these seats are in the South, 2 other seats are in Red States (ID-01 and KS-03), and 1 district where there is a significant Republican advantage (MD-01, although this district has a slight Democratic registration advantage).
The next 9 “Hard to Hold” seats
The next list of seats are districts where we will have trouble holding if the 2010-mid terms are somewhat neutral (i.e. Democrats nor Republicans have a clear advantage). These districts include MS-01, WA-03, NM-02, CO-04, OH-1, OH-15, PA-07, NH-02, and VA-02.
The make up of this group includes 3 districts where the incumbent is not running for reelection (PA-07, WA-03, NH-02), 4 districts that are R+5 or greater (MS-01, NM-02, CO-04, and VA-02), and 2 districts with freshmen reps (OH-01, OH-15).
An additional 11 “must-defend” seats
The following seats will be tough if the mid-term election is a mildly Republican friendly year. These seats include IN-09, TX-17, NV-03, NY-20, NY-29, NY-23, FL-08, PA-03, OH-18, AZ-05, and NJ-03. These seats range from a blood red district (TX-17) to a mild Democratic district (NV-03). Most of these seats have been gained by the Democrats in the last 2 election cycles.
Another 12 “we better make sure we don’t lose” seats if there is a Republican landslide
These seats will come into play if the Republicans have a clear nationwide advantage over the Democrats. These seats are NH-01, MI-07, FL-24, NY-24, PA-11, IL-14, MI-09, NC-08, FL-22, OH-16, VA-11, and GA-8. Of these seats, only 2 seats weren’t held by a Republican before the 2006 election! PA-11 is in this bucket due to Kanjorski, and GA-8 due to it being a red district that was almost won by the GOP in 2006.
18 seats that may flip if a Democratic nightmare occurs
If we have a mid-term election that is totally brutal (i.e. 1938, 1946, 1966), we might have to defend 18 or more seats in addition to the districts that I’ve previously mentioned. We should really make sure that we have strong candidates that are not strapped for funds in the following districts: CT-04, WI-08, AZ-08, CA-11, PA-04, NY-01, SC-05, NY-13, NM-01, NY-25, PA-10, PA-08, OR-05, AZ-01, CT-05, PA-12, NY-19, and VA-09.
GOP seats that could come into play
Due to simple arithmetic, the Republicans will have less seats to defend than the Democrats. In the current day environment, I only see a handful of Republican seats that will come into play. They include PA-06, LA-02, IL-10, DE-01, WA-08, SC-02 (Mr. “You Lie”‘s district), MI-11, CA-50, CA-3, CA-44, MN-03, FL-12, and OH-12. Some other longshots might be added, like AL-05 and AK-01.
Initial Conclusions
If the current environment still exists in November (and it’s pretty close to a Republican nationwide advantage), I think we could see us losing all 42 of our seats while gaining only 4-5 of the current Republican held seats. So a “net” loss of 37 seats cannot be considered out of the question. However, I don’t believe we will lose all of my 42 seats. There’s a good chance we will retain 1/2 of these seats, lose a couple other seats not on my radar, and might have better (or worse) luck with winning Republican-held seats.
Anything can happen, but the Democrats control their destiny. The DNC, DSCC, and the DCCC are strong and well-funded. The Democrats have a money advantage over the Republicans. In the last week I sense that the Democrats are regaining some momentum, so we might fair much better than I previously expected.
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Some notes:
1. Republican seats: Less optimistic about SC-02 (South Carolina, still generally conservative district and a LOT of money collected by Republican candidate after his “You Lie”), CA-50 (not especially strong Democratic candidates,in expensive district), MN-3 (not especially strong democratic candidates again), FL-12 (this Central Florida district resembles Deep South in many features, though Obama got 49% in 2008 and Republicans have wide choice of candidates) and WA-8 (as 2006 and 2008 shows Reichert is very difficult to beat even in Democratic years)
2. “Democratic nightmare”: i would put some districts you included here (AZ-8, PA-4, NY-1, NY-13, SC-5, PA-10, NY-19) somewhat higher. PA-12 is, naturally, a tossup after Murtha’s death
3. “We better make sure…”: again some (NH-1, NY-24, PA-11, MI-7) should go higher (IMHO)
4. “11 must defend” I would definitely put NY-29 (despite Republican fundraising problems) and, especially, FL-08 higher
No qualms about other groups – theey are basically correct, IMHO))))
It’s a nice view from 40,000 feet of the entire national landscape. While I’m going through each seat 1 by 1 right now and don’t want to give too much away, I generally agree with your classes of seats. Your top 10 most vulnerable I think are pretty much right on the money.
I think it’s the 4th group, that last line of defense before losing the House, where your analysis might be slightly amiss. In particular, NH-1, MI-7, NY-24, and PA-11 might end up going before some of the seats in your third group. I’d say that, for example, OH-18, IN-9, PA-3, and NY-20 might even be safer than some in that fourth group. But it’s all guesswork once you get past the second group anyway, and a lot of it just comes down to gut feeling, your feelings are probably different than mine.
On the republican side, if it goes legitimately beyond the first 4 you mentioned (DE-1, LA-2, IL-10, and PA-6) it’s going to be a better year than expected.