TX-Gov: Medina Surges, May Be Able to Overtake KBH

PPP (pdf) (2/4-7, likely voters)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 39

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 28

Debra Medina (R): 24

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.8%)

(Medina supporters only: who is your second choice?)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 43

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 39

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±9.7%)

Bill White (D): 49

Farouk Shami (D): 19

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I don’t think anyone was expecting this: PPP takes a look at the primary races in the Texas governor’s race, and finds Debra Medina, the Paulist candidate who was something of a nobody before the debates, making a huge impact in the race. Not only is her presence almost certainly going to force a runoff now — with Rick Perry unlikely to top 50% — but it’s now at least conceivable that she and not Kay Bailey Hutchison could be the one who makes it to the runoff with Perry. There must be a major freakout going on at KBH HQ today; this is all a bit reminiscent of what must have happened last month with the Martha Coakley camp, when the nice lady who’d been coasting for a while finally looked in the rear view mirror and realized that object was closer than it appeared.

What I find baffling, though, is how Medina supporters will split if she doesn’t make it into the runoff. You’d think that Medina’s right-wing followers would all pile into the Perry camp, given a choice between Perry’s anti-Washington posturing and KBH’s decades of insiderness. Nope: it’s almost an even split, with a narrow edge to Perry… suggesting that Medina is tapping into a lot of generalized anti-Perry sentiment too, or maybe just that the voters have a really superficial understanding of the differences between the candidates. (Of course, now maybe the more interesting question we should be asking is: how would KBH supporters split if she didn’t make it into the runoff?)

Finally, there’s the little matter of the Democratic primary. Houston mayor Bill White isn’t currently making it over the 50% mark against hair product magnate Farouk Shami, but he’s almost there, with a sizable number of undecideds left to break.

RaceTracker Wiki: TX-Gov

23 thoughts on “TX-Gov: Medina Surges, May Be Able to Overtake KBH”

  1. That would be awesome if Medina was able to win this race.  Anything would be an improvement over Perry, and the Democrat would have a better chance of defeating Medina than Hutchison.

    Funky Cold Medina?  This is an old song from 1989.

  2. If Perry & Medina make the runoff, and Medina manages to tap that anti-Perry sentiment to defeat him, White would make mincemeat out of her lack of credentials to actually govern a state.

    And heck, I think we’d have a good shot with Perry Vs. White with the help of KBH’s disaffected moderates and the anti-incumbency mood.

  3. Unlike Daggett, I think she’ll break double-digits, but at the end of the day, most righties will come home to Perry and most of the anti-Perry vote will come home to Hutchison. Medina will only get those who are both strongly anti-Perry AND strongly conservative, and I highly doubt that’s a full quarter of the Texas GOP electorate.

    My current prediction…

    Perry – 48%

    Hutchison – 36%

    Medina – 16%

  5. 1) I know the filing deadline for the primaries has passed.  Is there a later deadline to run as an independent?

    2) If so is there a sore loser law?

  6. Hutchison will drop out under pressure from state(/national?) Republicans to avoid possible Medina win in a run-off. She saves what face she can in the process.

  7. I’m not at all a fan of Hutchison, but as Texas Republicans go, she’s better than most.  Perry is a disgrace, but he still can spout his conservative rhetoric with the best.  

    It’s kind of ironic that Perry actually endorsed Al Gore for President in 1988.  Of course, he was a Democrat at that time.  I’m surprised that the candidates don’t attack him for his prior affiliations with Democrats.  Perry acts a lot like NC’s Lauch Faircloth.

    If Perry wins, which I do suspect will happen, and Medina and Hutchison supporters become apathetic, I can see Perry losing in the GE.  If Medina wins, I think we will have a Governor White.  

    Hutchison is toast.  Barring a major scandal of both Perry and Medina, she will lose.  Even if she makes the runoff, I don’t see her having a chance.

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