For the first time, I’m going to expand beyond my borders a bit, and over the next few diaries I’m going to run through all 435 districts of the US House of Representatives. These predictions are going to be my baseline, or “early” predictions, I hope to go through these at least once or twice more before the end.
Now I don’t have mathematical models or historical figures to decide my methodology, so my predictions are going to be largely based on gut feeling, based on what I know about the candidates and the districts. To me, it’s a political “smell” test. You may not agree with a lot of these picks, so please forgive me as this is my first shot at this.
Today, I start with part 1, the Northeast, which consists of the New England states and New York. I’ll hit the other regions of the country in later sections. I’ve divided the country into 10 regions overall, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper South, South Atlantic, South Gulf, Eastern Great Lakes, Western Great Lakes, Central Plains, Intermountain, and Pacific.
Reference – I use the same rating system as Charlie Cook does. When describing margin of victory I use Scott Eliott’s sytem of Weak for 0-5% win, Moderate for 6-10% win, Strong for 11-15% win, and Solid for 16%+.
Maine-1 – Chellie Pingree/Democrat – Most observers have this as a safe D seat, but Pingree underperformed Obama by quite a bit here. As a House freshman, she is certainly vulnerable. 2008 candidate Charlie Summers is not committed yet, but could jump in soon. I think this could be a Repub pickup if the environment is bad enough. I’m very surprised that nobody is talking about this race, it’s a real sleeper.
District PVI – D+8
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Mod Dem hold
Maine-2 – Michael Michaud/Democrat – Michaud is pretty well entrenched in this district, and though he may not get 67% again, he’s almost certain to win.
District PVI – D+3
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem hold
New Hampshire-1 – Carol-Shea Porter/Democrat – Shea-Porter is a two-term incumbent that was swept in in 2006. The race here appears to be a battle between her and Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. So far, Shea-Porter has been a great fundraiser and has outraised Guinta 2-1, but this is bound to be a tough fight. Shea-Porter defeated Jeb Bradley by 6% in 2008, nearly mirroring the district’s presidential vote. Out of all the districts in New England that have an incumbent this is the toughest hold.
District PVI – Even
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (1st overall)
New Hampshire-2 – Open/Democrat – This is a tough seat to call, because both the Republicans and Democrats are headed to primaries. On the Repub side, Jennifer Horn and Charlie Bass are the favorites, while the Dem battle will likely be between Ann McLane Kuster and Katrina Swett. A lot will depend on who emerges, but I feel the Repubs need Bass to win the primary or they have very little shot. That and the district’s PVI leads me to believe that the Dems are in decent shape here.
District PVI – D+3
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Mod Dem Hold
Vermont-1 – Peter Welch/Democrat – Welch won this district unopposed in 2008, and though he’s only been around since 2006, the Repubs haven’t really bothered to contest this seat.
District PVI – D+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-1 – John Olver/Democrat – Olver carried this very blue district with almost 78% of the vote in 2008, and despite Massachusetts’ recent voting in of Scott Brown for the Senate, I don’t see much headway being made in districts like these.
District PVI – D+14
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-2 – Richard Neal/Democrat – Neal won this district uncontested in 2008, and so far the Repubs have only token opposition to him. He’s also raised over 900K thus far, so I don’t see this one becoming competitive.
District PVI – D+9
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-3 – Jim McGovern/Democrat – McGovern won this district uncontested in 2008, and it looks as though he might again as the Repubs don’t even have a candidate as of yet.
District PVI – D+9
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-4 – Barney Frank/Democrat – So far, only token opposition has been put up against Frank, who I think could be in trouble if opposition does intensify because of his involvement in TARP and other prominent financial legislation. He does have a big warchest though, and won with 68% in 2008.
District PVI – D+14
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Masschusetts-5 – Niki Tsongas/Democrat – Tsongas is an interesting case because she won uncontested in 2008, but her district went solidly for Scott Brown. But unfortunately for the Repubs, they have only token opposition thus far, with Jonathan Golnik having been the only real fundraiser on that side thus far, at 51K.
District PVI – D+8
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-6 – John Tierney/Democrat – Tierney is a very well entrenched incumbent in his district, which consists of northeastern MA. It’s doubtful even in this environment that he could be defeated.
District PVI – D+7
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-7 – Edward Markey/Democrat – Like Tierney, Markey is well entrenched in a democratic district. It’s extremely doubtful that he will face a close race.
District PVI – D+15
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-8 – Michael Capuano/Democrat – Nothing to see here, Capuano is about as safe as they come. Although, it’d be nice to have him in the Senate right now…
District PVI – D+32
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-9 – Stephen Lynch/Democrat – The big question here is will blue dog-ish rep Lynch will see a primary challenge. So far, none has stepped up, in fact, there isn’t any Republican opposition either.
District PVI – D+11
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts-10 – William Delahunt/Democrat – This is probably the most vulnerable district in Massachusetts for the Dems, though it should be pointed out that Delahunt is well entrenched and didn’t even have an opponent in 2008. Michael Jones is the only confirmed Repub thus far, and all indications are that this would be a longshot pickup attempt.
District PVI – D+5
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Rhode Island-1 – Patrick Kennedy/Democrat – Kennedy has been in office since 94 and is well entrenched, but has drawn a strong Repub challenged in John Laughlin, who’s raised 250K thus far for a bid. Kennedy does have a 3-1 money advantage and a great partisan lean on his side, but if Laughlin runs a good campaign this one could get interesting.
District PVI – D+13
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
Rhode Island-2 – James Langevin/Democrat – This is one district where the primary is going to have more life than the general in all likelihood, as Langevin is being challenged by Elizabeth Dennigan. The big issue here is Langevin’s effectiveness. 08 Repub candidate Mark Zaccaria is running again, but he got clobbered by 40%, I can’t see him winning no matter what happens in the Dem primary.
District PVI – D+8
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Connecticut-1 – John Larson/Democrat – This is a very democratic district, and Larson is very much entrenched in it. It’s hard to see this seat becoming competitive.
District PVI – D+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Connecticut-2 – Joe Courtney/Democrat – Courtney is a sophomore, and won with a huge landslide win in 2008. He’s been fundraising as though expecting a difficult race, with 832K raised, and indeed two Repubs, Daria Novak and Matthew Daly, are vying for the Republican nomination. Ultimately with the partisan lean and the money advantage, I don’t see Courtney getting pushed all that hard here.
District PVI – D+6
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Connecticut-3 – Rosa DeLauro/Democrat – DeLauro is well entrenched within the 3rd, and should win re-election fairly handily.
District PVI – D+9
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Connecticut-4 – Jim Himes/Democrat – When state Senate minority leader John McKinney decided against a run here, it really hurt Repub chances for a pickup. At present, Dan Debicella is the R frontrunner, but the field is crowded. Himes has already raised 1.7 million for his re-election, and given the district’s partisan lean, it’s hard to imagine him losing unless he makes a serious gaffe. One wild card is that Christopher Shays hasn’t ruled out a rematch, which would make this race top tier.
District PVI – D+5
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
Connecticut-5 – Christopher Murphy/Democrat – Murphy stormed onto the scene four years ago with his upset of Nancy Johnson, and won by 20% in 2008, solidifying his hold on the 5th. This is about as even a district as there is in New England though, and the Repubs have two solid contenders in the Republican primary, David Caligiuri and Justin Bernier, who have each fundraised nicely so far. With the national environment in the Repub direction, this could be a bit hairy for Murphy.
District PVI – D+2
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Mod Dem Hold
New York-1 – Tim Bishop/Democrat – This looks like it’s going to be one heated affair. Tim Bishop is facing off against a strong Republican challenger, Randy Altschuler, and the two are pretty close in fundraising to this point. The kicker though, is that George Demos is challenging Altschuler in the Republican primary, which due to the late primary date (Sept 14) could weaken the Repubs chances severely. Still, a big race to watch.
District PVI – Even
Stephen’s Rating – Leans D
Prediction – Mod Dem Hold
New York-2 – Steve Israel/Democrat – There isn’t much in the way of opposition to Israel, Anthony Tolda is the only Repub in the race and he hasn’t raised any cash yet. Israel has not really been tested since his initial election.
District PVI – D+4
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-3 – Peter King/Republican – OMG a republican seat! First one! Peter King won with 64% of the vote here in 2008, so he’s solidly entrenched. Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice and County Executive Tom Suozzi are the big names in the Dem primary, but ultimately, I don’t see this seat flipping unless King decides to bail to run for higher office, which is unlikely at this point.
District PVI – R+4
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
New York-4 – Carolyn McCarthy/Democrat – McCarthy is pretty well entrenched here in the 4th. She does have a decent challenger in Frank Scuttaro, but she has outraised him almost 5-to-1 so far. 2010 might be a year that holds down her margins a bit, but I do like McCarthy to win fairly handily.
District PVI – D+6
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
New York-5 – Gary Ackerman/Democrat – Nothing to really see here, as longstanding incumbent Ackerman shouldn’t have much to worry about in this fairly blue seat. 2008 Rep candidate Elizabeth Berney is the only opposition.
District PVI – D+12
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-6 – Gregory Meeks/Democrat – Now we start getting into the inner NYC districts, and the 6th district is the 7th most Democratic in the country. No problem for Meeks.
District PVI – D+36
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-7 – Joseph Crowley/Democrat – Well, this district is another democratic stronghold to the nth degree. Nothing to see here.
District PVI – D+26
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-8 – Jerrold Nadler/Democrat – Again, another hugely democratic NYC stronghold. There’s really no chance of an R pickup here either.
District PVI – D+22
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-9 – Anthony Weiner/Democrat – This district is starting to trend away from Democrats at the national level, which is a bit troubling. However, nobody has stepped up to challenge Weiner as of right now, and I think that the Repubs may be squandering an opportunity by not stepping up, as the democratic foundation of the district is crumbling. I think the next redistricting the Dems should look to siphon some votes from the neighboring 6th and/or 10th in case Weiner leaves for any reason.
District PVI – D+5
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-10 – Edolphus Towns/Democrat – Another district in which the democratic strength is simply too overpowering for any republican to even think about it. 3rd most democratic in the nation.
District PVI – D+38
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-11 – Yvette Clark/Democrat – And here’s the 5th most democratic district in the country. It’s a wonder how any Republicans ever win statewide with the ridiculous Dem strength in NYC. Or better yet, how does NYC keep electing Republican mayors? That, I really don’t get.
District PVI – D+38
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-12 – Nydia Velazquez/Democrat – Here’s another yawn-fest. Velazquez is about as safe as can be in this intensely democratic, Hispanic heavy district.
District PVI – D+33
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-13 – Mike McMahon/Democrat – Now here’s a district that was incredibly interesting in 2008 and could be again in 2010. McMahon won by 27 points in 2008 in a race that was anything but business as usual, but has drawn two decent Repub challengers, former mayoral aide Michael Allegretti and FBI agent Michael Grimm. McMahon has already raised 1.2 million for his campaign, and with the Republican primary looking like a toss-up affair, he’s got good reason to feel good about his chances, even in a district that supported McCain over Obama by 2% in 2008.
District PVI – R+4
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
New York-14 – Carolyn Maloney/Democrat – There won’t be much action in the general election here, but ironically for incumbent Maloney, she is being challenged in the primary by Reshma Saujani, who supposedly is fundraising very well. Ultimately for our purposes though, even if it turns out to be a white-knuckle affair, the Dem is still going to win in November.
District PVI – D+26
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-15 – Charles Rangel/Democrat – The big question here is whether Rangel will decide to retire. If not, he’s almost certain to face opposition in the Democratic primary because of his ethical troubles. The Republicans are trying to use his problems as a proxy on the caucus as a whole, but they have no chance of mounting a challenge here, the 2nd most Dem district in the nation.
District PVI – D+41
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-16 – Jose Serrano/Democrat – Yawn. Are we out of New York City yet? This, by the way, is the most Democratic district in the USA, where Obama beat McCain by an eye-popping 95 to 5 count. Well, I guess at some point I’ll have to do Texas-13 and Alabama-4 and see the shoe on the other foot.
District PVI – D+41
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-17 – Eliot Engel/Democrat – Well, we’re starting to move out of NYC proper now, but again the substance remains the same, a strong Democratic incumbent without much in the way of opposition. Hey, if the whole country was like this it would solve a lot of our problems.
District PVI – D+18
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-18 – Nita Lowey/Democrat – Only one more district before we get to the good races upstate. Here in NY-18, Lowey is pretty well entrenched, and the partisan lean makes this too much for any Republican challenger.
District PVI – D+12
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-19 – John Hall/Democrat – This seat is going to be the seat of an intense fight, both in the Republican primary and in the general election. Greg Ball, the previous Repub frontrunner has quit the race, but another strong challenger in Nan Hayworth is out there. She’s raised nearly the same funds as Hall, and given the slight partisan lean of the 19th and the national mood, she’s got a great chance at upsetting Hall, so long as the Republicans don’t attempt to Scozzafava her. The primary field is deep but not impressive past Hayworth. Ball has a severe fight on his hands here despite his 17 point win in 2008. This district did support Obama over McCain, but only by 3%.
District PVI – R+3
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Dem Hold
New York-20 – Scott Murphy/Democrat – Here’s another very hotly contested upstate seat, which is a bit of a recurring theme as you’ll see. The good news for Murphy is, unlike Hall, he hasn’t drawn any top tier opposition. In fact, the Repubs have virtually struck out in the recruitment here, and honestly, might be looking at a rematch from Jim Tedisco, who arguably choked away his 2009 special election race against Murphy. It’ll still be a fight more than likely, but I like Murphy’s chances.
District PVI – R+2
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
New York-21 – Paul Tonko/Democrat – The Albany-based 21st is one of the more Democratic portions of upstate New York. Even though Tonko is only a freshman, I don’t think he’s in any sort of danger, as he won his initial election by 27%. Also, it should be noted that the Repubs don’t even have a candidate yet.
District PVI – D+6
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-22 – Maurice Hinchey/Democrat – This district, based around Binghampton, is very Democratic in nature, and Hinchey is very much entrenched. No reason to sweat this one.
District PVI – D+6
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-23 – Bill Owens/Democrat – Here’s another upstate district with a nearly even PVI, and it was the sight of perhaps the strangest house special election in decades last year. It appeared the Republicans would win the seat with moderate R Dede Scozzafava, before her campaign was torpedoed by a rightways challenge from Doug Hoffman. Owens won the race by 4%, and is looking to become entrenched. Hoffman is challenging again, and incredibly, if the race tracker wiki page is right, Scozzafava might be in the mix again as well. That could lead to bad blood in the Repub primary. In either case, this is likely to be one of the bigger battlegrounds of the 2010 house election cycle.
District PVI – R+1
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Dem Hold
New York-24 – Michael Arcuri/Democrat – Arcuri barely survived a lackluster challenge in 2008, perhaps out of complacency, perhaps out of the independent nature of the 24th district, which is a tightly contested battleground these days. 2008 Republican candidate Richard Hanna is back for another shot, and he’s got some good name recognition from his prior run. Arcuri just doesn’t strike me as a strong campaigner like Scott Murphy and/or Dan Maffei, who I’ll get to next. That, along with the national environment will make things very difficult. I have a feeling the Dems won’t be holding all the upstate districts, and outside of Massa’s which I’ll get to later, this is probably the most likely to flip.
District PVI – R+2
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Rep Pickup (2nd overall)
New York-25 – Dan Maffei/Democrat – Maffei took over this Syracuse-area district in 2008 following an extremely strong run in 2006 that ended up coaxing the long running incumbent before him into retirement. So far there are four Republicans in the race for the Republican nomination, but none are all that impressive. Maffei has been a fundraising machine, having raised over 1.4 million thus far. All these factors plus his strong campaigning skills adds up to a retention for Maffei methinks.
District PVI – D+3
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
New York-26 – Christopher Lee/Republican – Wow, we finally hit the 2nd incumbent Republican in the northeast. Lee won this seat by 14% in 2008, and has fundraised pretty well this cycle, coming in at over 800k thus far. So far the Dems don’t have a confirmed candidate. Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul might make a run at it, and 2008 Alice Kryzan hasn’t ruled out a rematch either. I wouldn’t say Lee is totally safe, but he’s not in bad shape.
District PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
New York-27 – Brian Higgins/Democrat – Higgins is extremely well liked in his district, which runs from Buffalo south to Chatauqua County in the corner of the state. Republicans aren’t exactly lining up to face him, and I don’t blame them, their task would be next to impossible seeing as the guy won re-election by nearly 50 points in a district where Obama only won by 10%.
District PVI – D+4
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-28 – Louise Slaughter/Democrat – In the hideous looking 28th, commonly referred to as “the earmuffs” by many, Slaughter is pretty well entrenched. It’s a wildly democratic district anyway, taking in parts of Buffalo and Rochester.
District PVI – D+15
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
New York-29 – Eric Massa/Democrat – The 29th district is the 2nd most republican in New York, but freshman Massa scored an upset victory in 2008 in a razor-tight 2% outcome. This district did vote for McCain by the same amount though, and the Repubs found a strong recruit in Corning mayor Tom Reed. His platform of economic conservatism and business friendly practices should resonate here. Massa is wiping the floor in the fundraising battle at a 13-1 clip, but ultimately, in this environment, I don’t see that being such a big deal. Massa has been one of the most liberal voters in the house this session, often opposing bills from the left as opposed to the right, and I just don’t think that somebody of his profile fits this district.
District PVI – R+5
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Mod Rep Pickup (3rd overall)
Current Northeast seat breakdown – 49 Dem, 2 Rep
Breakdown after 2010 prediction – 46 Dem, 5 Rep
Next stop, the Mid-Atlantic
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I’m lousy at predictions and think that it’s too early, anyway. We have to see what the Congress accomplishes between now and Election Day and what happens to the economy.
Is extremely well-written, and well-detailed. I’m really looking forward to the next part.
Just one small detail I noticed: Under the description of NY-19, you wrote “Ball has a severe fight on his hands here despite his 17 point win in 2008.” I believe you were referring to the incumbent Rep. John Hall, not Greg Ball, his would-be challenger.
of keeping all of these, esp. with Cuomo at the top of the ticket in NY.
I think Shea-Porter and Arcuri will win.
Massa will be a genuinely tough hold, and the most worrisome, but his opponent is not fundraising well. He may lose.
So you are dismissing the GOP candidacy of Nixon grandson Chris Cox?
but slightly less optimistic about couple of districts (NH-2 in case of Bass victory in primary, NY-13 (after all it was a McCain district)) and may be MA-10. But it’s clear that main problems for Democrats are not in New Englsnd, but rather in South, Midwest and some Mountain states
I think your diary was well written…I’m taking notes!
I’m more concerned about NH-02 than NH-01. Although Bass has been defeated before, he’s still a credible opponent. Shea-Porter seems to be a good fit for her district, and she’s a great campaigner, so I’m giving her a slight advantage.
I agree that NY-29 will be the hardest of the New York seats to defend. Among the rest, NY-20, NY-23, and NY-24 will be seats that we will have to fight the hardest to retain. I’m fairly optimistic about NY-19, but your diary makes me question my reasoning.
I’m in full agreement that ME-1 is being overlooked. Nice to see someone else that thinks so!
A few other things:
I’m thinking that if Shays tries to make a comeback in 2010, he’ll run for CT-Gov (where I think he’d actually have a decent shot). Just a guess on my part, though.
As for New York, the only seat I’d put down as a likely loss right now is the 24th. Arcuri seems to have been really overconfident in 2008, and if he could only just barely hold on then, in a good year for Dems, I don’t see any reason to believe he’ll survive a bad one. Of course, with luck, I’m completely wrong, and this will be our version of 06/08 IN-03.
I think, despite his stance on some issues, Massa is actually a pretty good fit for his district. He needs to be a little more tightly controlled, though. More Grayson-style verbosity like he pulled at Netroots Nation a while back could undo whatever goodwill he has locally.
I feel pretty bullish on Owens. A strong argument could be made that he only won the special thanks to the Republicans going all cannibal on one another, but Owens seemed to run a very solid, quietly competent campaign. Besides that, what makes people any more likely to vote for Hoffman this November if they didn’t last time?
Murphy’s vulnerable in my estimation but I agree that the Republicans have dropped the ball here recruitment wise.
On the other hand, they’re doing a great job of trying to take down Hall before he gets any more entrenched in his district, but I think, like McMahon, it’s lean D.
but what is your reasoning behind NY 13? It was a once safe republican district and has a cook pvi of R+4. I know McMahon won by a very solid margin in 2008 but those where very unique circumstances. If the republicans land a decent candidate and the environment is still looking bad then this seat could be vulnerable. Although I will not pretend that I am expert with New York politics, so by all means correct me if I am wrong.
really? Just because Loughlin (not Laughlin) is fundraising decently doesn’t mean he’s a legit candidate. No one in RI knows who he is, and Republicans are just happy to have an elected official instead of the random people they usually cough up. If you’re going to have even a shadow of a doubt about this one, you might as well do the same for MA-06 which is less Democratic and where the Republican is keeping up in fundraising with Tierney.