IN-Sen, IN-08: Sources Say Ellsworth Will Run for Senate, Van Haaften for House

From the Evansville Courier & Press:

U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth will run for Senate, and state Rep. Trent Van Haaften will seek his seat in Congress, multiple Democratic sources said Thursday morning. […]

The Indiana Democratic Party’s 32-member central committee will determine Bayh’s replacement. Anthony Long, the party’s 8th Congressional District chairman, said he expected a Ellsworth’s decision this morning. No official announcement has been made.

Meanwhile, Butch Morgan, the 2nd District chairman who also helms the St. Joseph’s County Democratic Party, said bumping Ellsworth and Van Haaften up is the scenario he envisions.

Other Democratic sources close to Ellsworth and Van Haaften would not speak on the record, but confirmed that the two are working out the logistics of the situation now.

Howey Politics Indiana, the crew that broke the story about Dan Coats’ re-entry into the political arena, is also reporting the same thing — with an announcement by Ellsworth apparently set to come down sometime later today.

There’s no question that Ellsworth out-classes his Republican opposition in this race. Dan Coats has been proven to be a pretty flawed candidate — one of the very few GOP candidates that the DSCC has actually been able to land serious and solid hits against all cycle. It remains to be seen, however, whether those flaws will prove to be fatal in a year like this.

As for Van Haaften, he seems to be one of the more solid choices short of Evansville Mayor Jon Weinzapfel, who has already turned this race down. His bio is available here.

UPDATE: Rasmussen is quick to show up on the scene with a bucket of cold water:

IN-Sen (2/16-17, likely voters):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 15

Brad Ellsworth (D): 27

John Hostettler (R): 46

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

Brad Ellsworth (D): 30

Marlin Stutzman (R): 40

Some other: 9

Not sure: 21

Baron Hill (D): 32

Dan Coats (R): 48

Some other: 6

Not sure: 14

Baron Hill (D): 31

John Hostettler (R): 49

Some other: 5

Not sure: 15

Baron Hill (D): 33

Marlin Stutzman (R): 41

Some other: 7

Not sure: 19

(MoE: ±4.5%)

LATER UPDATE: In what’s probably a sign of increasing coalescence around Ellsworth, state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, who’d been mentioned somewhere around #4 on the totem pole of potential replacements (behind Ellsworth, Baron Hill, and Jonathan Weinzapfel), has pulled her name from consideration.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-08

158 thoughts on “IN-Sen, IN-08: Sources Say Ellsworth Will Run for Senate, Van Haaften for House”

  1. Um, did anyone see the Rasmussen poll of IN-SEN.  Ellsworth gets destroyed by any of the 3 Republicans.  Rasmussen is either going to be very right this time around or very wrong.

  2. but when you think about it, it’s not a terrible option for him. The Republicans are very likely to pair him with Pete Visclosky next year, so he might not even have a seat to run in for long.

    On the issues, he’s even worse than Bayh–if that’s possible. The best I can say is that he’ll be better than Coats.  

  3. “Democrats are going to lose Bayh’s Senate seat and will probably lose the seat of the House member that runs for it,” said a senior House Democratic aide granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The focus on what’s best for the Senate is making Members ask whether the White House cares about a Democratic majority in the House.”

    http://voices.washingtonpost.c

    BS then, BS now.

  4. Former prosecutor, leadership in the IN House. Also, leafing through his legislative record, he introduced a resolution urging congress to pass the climate security act, which could be an indication of his voting record; probably a Blue Dog, but maybe a potential vote on key issues like cap/trade (more like Baron Hill than Ellsworth?). He does support was sounds like a concealed carry gun law, and he also supported a strengthening of local ethics/lobbying law.

  5. I don’t buy for a second that Hostettler, of all people, has anywhere near a 20-point lead over anyone in Indiana.

    If more polling confirms this, then fine, but right now, this borders on the ridiculous.

  6. Democrats are poised to get their best possible candidate to replace Evan Bayh in the form of Brad Ellsworth and are lining up a highly credible successor for Ellsworth’s House seat… and this is bad news?

    Jeez, the lengths that the MSM will go to in order to advance the “DEMZ ARE DOOOOMED!!!” narrative never ceases to amaze me.

    Look, Bayh’s retirement was bad news for Democrats, plain and simple. But as James noted, the timing of the announcement really could not have been more advantageous. Both Coats and Hostettler are deeply flawed candidates, whereas Ellsworth has a proven – and recent – track record as an outstanding campaigner. Right now, the Republicans’ leads in the polls (especially Coats’s) are probably more a function of name recognition over anything else, and I would be very surprised indeed if we didn’t see them tightening as the campaign actually got under way. In this sense Indiana is shaping up similarly to Delaware: in both cases, the GOP is (in all probability) running elder statesmen-types with a history of winning office at the state level but without having had competitive races in a long, long time, while the Dems’ are running younger, feisty upstarts with potentially perfect statewide profiles, yet who are hindered dually by low name recognition and a generally negative national environment for their party.

  7. More of a function of name recognition and Coates and Hostettler being seen as generic Republican. Unlike yesterday’s results showing Ron Wyden under 50 (which I flat out don’t believe, I think Rasmussen got a bad result), I believe these results, but I would also argue that it’s way too early to poll (or to panic) about this race. I don’t think you’ll really get an idea of where this race is headed until September.  

  8. When I heard that Ellsworth had an internal poll in the field this morning, I just KNEW that Rasmussen would come out with a Republican-leaning result in an attempt to dissuade him from running, just like they’ve done with Chris Coons in Delaware, Charlie Melancon in Louisiana, et al.  They’ve been doing it all cycle.  On the other side meanwhile, they give great results to Mike Castle, Tommy Thompson, Dino Rossi, Mark Kirk, etc in the hopes of getting them to jump in.  

    This fantasy world that Rasmussen is living in, with their ridiculous likely voter screen, isn’t going to hold water in November.  Accordingly, they’ll probably adjust their horse race numbers in the democratic direction as we come down the stretch in the final month and a half of the campaign.  

    I just hate how they are trying to influence the narrative and try to get certain candidates to run/not run because of the R or D by their name.  It’s bull.

  9. When I heard that Ellsworth had an internal poll in the field this morning, I just KNEW that Rasmussen would come out with a Republican-leaning result in an attempt to dissuade him from running, just like they’ve done with Chris Coons in Delaware, Charlie Melancon in Louisiana, et al.  They’ve been doing it all cycle.  On the other side meanwhile, they give great results to Mike Castle, Tommy Thompson, Dino Rossi, Mark Kirk, etc in the hopes of getting them to jump in.  

    This fantasy world that Rasmussen is living in, with their ridiculous likely voter screen, isn’t going to hold water in November.  Accordingly, they’ll probably adjust their horse race numbers in the democratic direction as we come down the stretch in the final month and a half of the campaign.  

    I just hate how they are trying to influence the narrative and try to get certain candidates to run/not run because of the R or D by their name.  It’s bull.

  10. Well, Democratic Party is having big troubles with the recruitment for senate. Without the frontrunners Democratic Party has hard work for keep the seats.

    Someone of they should reconsider…

  11. Repubs are stuck with Larry Bucshon then? Anybody know much about him? I see he has only raised $100k so far.

  12. considering both the anti-incumbent climate, specifically towards the dems, it’s not surprising, nor insurmountable.  Ellsworth is a good candidate, but he will have to run a GREAT campaign against either a washington insider (coats) or a lazy loon (hostettler).  This will be the first competitive open senate race in years and a great view of where indiana stands on the poly spectrum.  was Obama’s win the same as reagan winning mass, or is Indiana really becoming a swing state?  we shall see.

  13. Talked to a friend of my dad’s today and we happen to discuss this race. Well he is a true independent, who always votes for the candidate not party. For instance he voted Bush twice but Obama last time, He always votes third party when its Hill Vs. Sodrel because he hates them both, and well I always go to him, because he is a good place to see how independents feel. He said he would probably vote Coats simply because he is experienced and what not, later today I emailed him and article that explained Coats recent controversies and I asked him what he planned to do now. He told me Coats can go back to North Carolina. Right now people no NOTHING about any of these people, but give them time and they will, and don’t write off Indiana just yet, us Hoosiers are pretty dam smart and will elect Ellsworth.

    Now there have been many who have stated that Obama’s victory in Indiana was a fluke. Well let me tell you something, I made probably over 10 hours worth of calls, and I went door to door, and I worked very hard with my local GOTV effort. I saw Obama at a rally once in the general election, and saw Biden twice. I received pro Obama flyers, and saw many Obama television ads. Now in 2004 guess how many calls I made? None! Guess how many times I went door to door? None! Guess how many times I saw Kerry or Edwards? None! I don’t remember seeing any adds either. The exact same can be said in 2000 with Al Gore. Barack Obama was the first democrat to win Indiana since LBJ because he was probably one of the first to actual contest it since LBJ. People always write us of as republican and walk away, well Obama was different, and it was NO fluke that he won.

  14. Our spammy troll from the other night got banned, just returned, got rumbled and banned again. Good riddance Mr Coats.

  15. I think this about the best scenario we could have hoped for in retaining these seats for the party. I feel fairly confident at this point we have very solid odds at retaining both these seats at this point if these are the candidates.

  16. I’m wondering if there could be a scenario where the primary campaign between Coats and Hostettler becomes so toxic and they damage each other so much, that a third candidate (e.g. possibly Stutzman) flying under the mudslinging might win.

    (I’m assuming there are no runoffs so that a plurality wins.)

    Hostettler seems to be nutty enough that he’ll have no restrains on his campaigning. Yes he needs money, but I’m assuming he’ll have all the enthusiasm of the teabaggers, being the anti-Coats.

    And have we heard from the CfG yet? With a suddenly open seat, they may be suddenly interested…

  17. So our best hope is one conservaDEM getting replaced by an even more conservaDEM.  Almost rather have “over the hill” Coats win and retire in 6 years when the  a progressive might have a chance.  If Ellsworth wins we are stuck with a Lieberman lite for 18-24 years. Why do we want more Lincolns, Nelsons and Bayhs?  Baron Hill looks much better.

  18. He looks great on paper, sure, but could someone ease my concern that this cannot become another Melancon vs Vitter; a popular congressman in a conservative state finding it very, very difficult to dislodge even an opponent who is damaged goods? There are, of course, significant differences between Coats and Vitter, chief of which is that Vitter is an incumbent and his improprieties happened in the ancient past in that special warped timeline that is American politics, but I have a nagging feeling that even Ellsworth’s many personal qualities will be unable to surmount the state’s natural lean, no matter Obama’s stunning victory two whole years ago.

  19. Seems like the buzz for John Cougar is gaining steam, ref http://www.washingtonpost.com/

    Twitter is abuzz with the rumor and three separate Facebook groups have been set up, with the largest boasting about 2,000 members.

    Yeah, I know, it’s just Twitter and Facebook and still seems like a pipe dream, but these same channels are keeping Palin relevant to the discussion.

    But this seems to be the right kind of year for a non-politican.

    Nevertheless, Ellsworth does seem like a good fit.

Comments are closed.