StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 4

Welcome to Part 4 of my 2010 baseline predictions for the house of representatives.  In this section, we’ll head into the Deep South, which I’ve split up into two regions, the deep south Atlantic, consisting of South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, and the deep south Gulf, which covers Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas.  Today we’ll cover the south Atlantic, and the south gulf will be covered in part 6.

National Recap so far –

Northeast – Rep +3 (rep gains NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even (rep gains PA-11, MD-1; dem gains DE-1, PA-6)

Upper South – Rep +5 (rep gains VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)

The South Atlantic doesn’t look all that interesting, honestly, though by election day that might change.  There aren’t any top tier races in Georgia or South Carolina, and thus far, the one hotbed of the region is in the central part of Florida thanks to some vulnerable incumbents.  The good news for the Democrats in this region is that most of their seats are centered in urban areas, which might shelter them from the wrath of a rural republican “teabagger” uprising in 2010.  

South Carolina-1 – Open/Republican – This district was the site of one of the most intriguing and surprising races of 2008, as Brown barely held on against the openly lesbian democratic challenger, Linda Ketner.  That poor performance, combined with an upcoming primary challenger in Carroll Campbell Jr., caused him to bail.  With the seat open, Campbell Jr is the favorite on the Republican side, barely, as the field is deep and his fundraising has been poor thus far at 121k.  The Democratic side is also very unsettled, with no clear favorite, though it’s unfortunate that Ketner isn’t running again.  Ultimately, with the environment being what it is, it’s hard to imagine the Dems picking this up, but it’s not impossible.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

South Carolina-2 – Joe Wilson/Republican – This is about as high profile a house race as you can have.  Joe Wilson, the famed representative who yelled out that Barack Obama was a liar in front of the whole world, has received a lot of heat, and fame, for his outburst.  His shout heard round the world also gave himself, and his Dem opponent Robert Miller, a ton of cash.  Wilson currently has 2.3 million in cash on hand, while Miller has 1.7 million.  This is going to be a war, and I have a feeling it’s going to be very ugly in nature.  This district is conservative, and voted for McCain by 9 points, so I give an edge to Wilson to retain.  If the environment wasn’t in the republicans’ favor Wilson would be in dire straits.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

South Carolina-3 – Open/Republican – This is an intensely conservative seat, held currently by Gresham Barrett.  As of now, the republican primary is a crowded affair, with state representative Rex Rice, state senators Shane Massey & Jeff Duncan, and businessman Richard Cash all vying for the chance to succeed Barrett.  The likely Democratic candidate is Jane Dyer, who is fundraising close with the republican challengers.  The problem for her is that this district is one of the most conservative in the nation, so a Dem pickup is extremely unlikely.

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

South Carolina-4 – Bob Inglis/Republican – The big question here is whether or not Bob Inglis will survive a primary challenge.  The Dems really should put forth a challenger in case he doesn’t, but so far they don’t have one.  

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

South Carolina-5 – John Spratt/Democrat – Spratt has been for a long time an entrenched House incumbent in the 5th, but this year it looks like he might get a fairly strong challenge.  The Repubs have coalesced around state senator Mick Mulvaney, who is a freshman in that body.  I don’t have any fundraising data on this race, but despite the enthusiasm around Mulvaney, it’s hard to imagine a young-un like him taking out a strong incumbent like Spratt, even in a slightly conservative district.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

South Carolina-6 – James Clyburn/Democrat – This is the one democratic district in South Carolina, and Clyburn is fairly well entrenched here.  It’s also a VRA district, making Republican takeover  a very difficult proposition.  

District PVI – D+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-1 – Jack Kingston/Republican – This southeastern Georgia district is very conservative, and favored McCain by 25% over Obama.  It’s not really on the democratic radar screen for 2010.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-2 – Sanford Bishop/Democrat – This district, which comprises much of southwestern Georgia, is a rarity in the south in that it is a swing district.  Most southern districts are either intensely democratic in the cities and intensely republican in the country.  Bishop is currently heavily favored for re-election, but he is facing a republican challenger in Mike Keown.  I shouldn’t think this challenge will amount to much, but seeing as this is the rural south, I can’t completely count out the republican.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-3 – Lynn Westmoreland/Republican – This district in west-central Georgia is crazy conservative and so is Westmoreland.   A good match really.  

District PVI – R+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-4 – Hank Johnson/Democrat – Heading into metro Atlanta now, this district comprises Atlanta’s east, covering most of Dekalb County.  Johnson won’t be sweating over re-election as this district is very democratic.  

District PVI – D+24

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-5 – John Lewis/Democrat – This district, which consists of central Atlanta, is probably the safest for Democrats in the entire south outside of South Florida.  Lewis is safe.

District PVI – D+26

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-6 – Tom Price/Republican – The 6th district, which is centered north of the Atlanta metro area, is starting to turn in the Democratic direction, but it has a long way to go before it becomes competitive.  Price is safe.

District PVI – R+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-7 – John Linder/Republican – The 7th district, which falls to the northeast and east of the Atlanta area, is also starting to take a democratic turn, but as with the neighboring 6th, it still has a long way to travel before a democrat can look to win here unless we find the next Bobby Bright or Gene Taylor.

District PVI – R+16

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-8 – Jim Marshall/Democrat – This is perhaps the one district in the state that, on paper, has a decent chance at turning over.  This south-central Georgia district is fairly conservative in nature, but Marshall has voted fairly well in line with their political lean, defecting from the party on some key issues.  That, and the fact that the Republican side has had some major recruiting woes here is keeping him in good shape.  Businesswoman Angela Hicks is the favorite in the republican primary as several state senators the NRCC attempted to recruit have given her their blessing, but the field is deep, and she has not fundraised well at all to this point.  Marshall’s fundraising has been fairly lackluster.  It’s a tricky race because Marshall only won by 15% in 2008 (Obama got beat 56-43), so this race is almost guaranteed to be closer based on the political environment.  

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Georgia-9 – Open/Republican – Hey, here’s an open republican seat!  Yay!  Only problem is this pine tree covered part of north Georgia is the 4th most republican in the nation, voting 75-23 for McCain.  On the bright side, if you like wingnut on wingnut warfare…this is the district for you.

District PVI – R+28

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-10 – Paul Broun/Republican – There’s actually a nice democratic vote center in the 10th, coming in the form of the college town of Athens.  But it’s pretty much an island of blue in a sea of deep, deep red.  Not much chance here.

District PVI – R+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-11 – Phil Gingrey/Republican – The 11th district contains much of northwestern Georgia rural country, with Rome as it’s major population center.  And unfortunately, its not competitive in the least.  

District PVI – R+20

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Georgia-12 – John Barrow/Democrat – This east Georgia  district centered upon Augusta was re-drawn following a rare mid-decade redistricting, which stripped Athens out of the district in favor of more rural territory.  Barrow survived a tough race in 2006 but romped to a 66-34 win in 2008 while Obama won the district by 9%.  The Republicans appeared to have a good challenger here in army veteran and surgeon Wayne Mosley, but his dropping out has really left the NRCC in a hole.  Now the primary is likely to be a divided and tough affair between a bunch of Some Guys.  That’s not going to get it done against an entrenched incumbent like Barrow.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Georgia-13 – David Scott/Democrat – This is the newest district in the state, stretching over Atlanta’s western and southern suburbs.   It’s fairly democratic in nature, and Scott is well entrenched.  Not much chance of losing this one.

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-1 – Jeff Miller/Republican – We now move into Florida, a perennially key state, which begins a stretch of four big, swing states in a row for us.  That’s notable, even though this western panhandle-based district isn’t, it’s solidly republican.

District PVI – R+21

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-2 – Allen Boyd/Democrat – This is an odd district.  It is a swing district trending quickly rightward, but has a democratic blue dog-ish representative.  But instead of a strong republican challenge, it looks like Allen Boyd’s biggest trouble will be getting through a primary challenge from Al Lawson.  Boyd has about a  10-1 cash on hand advantage, but if Lawson consolidates the sizeable black vote in the district he’s got a shot.  The Republicans’ only chance is if Boyd is defeated in the primary, as their biggest challengers, William Sutherland and Carl Meece, have barely gotten their campaigns off the ground.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Florida-3 – Corrine Brown/Democrat – Along with NC-12, PA-12, and NY-28, this district is about as hideous a gerrymander as you’ll see on the national House map, stringing together the most democratic parts of Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Orlando.  It’s meant to be a democratic vote sink with it’s purpose hiding behind the VRA.  It’s safe for Brown at present, but god does it need to be re-designed in the 2010 redistricting.

District PVI – D+18

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Florida-4 – Ander Crenshaw/Republican – This north Florida district is very similar to the 1st district, rural, white, and very republican.  

District PVI – R+17

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-5 – Ginny Brown-Waite/Republican – Brown-Waite is one of the most popular politicians in the state of Florida, and is widely beloved in her district.  The 2008 race was her closest election since her initial win in 2002, but she still won by 23%.  It’s doubtful any democrat could take a run at her.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-6 – Cliff Stearns/Republican – This is another hideously drawn district.  Looking at the map it looks as though it is spooning with the neighboring 3rd.  As you would expect, it is the yin to the 3rd’s yang, as it is a very republican district.  In this environment it would be hard to imagine the Dems picking this one up.

District PVI – R+10

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-7 – John Mica/Republican – This district comprises a lot of Florida’s northeastern coast between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach.  Honestly I’m surprised that this district is not overwhelmingly republican, Obama only lost by 7% here in 2008.  That being said, Mica won re-election by 24% in 2008, making it very difficult to believe that this seat will be in play this time around.

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-8 – Alan Grayson/Democrat – Finally!  After 28 districts of boredom, we reach a competitive district, potentially one of the most competitive in the nation.  The 8th is a gerrymandered (yup, what else is new) central Florida district that comprises a good portion of the Orlando metro area.  It is a swing district that is trending leftward.  Grayson is perhaps the biggest loudmouth in the democratic house caucus, famous for his “don’t get sick, die quickly” rant about republican health care agenda.  Much like Joe Wilson last year and Michelle Bachmann in 2008, there’s big a large influx of money into this race, but luckily for Grayson, most of it has been on his side since the Republicans amazingly haven’t been able to find a candidate.  Armando Gutierrez was the leading fundraiser on the R side but he dropped out earlier this month, leaving a wide open field paced by state representative Kurt Kelly and businessman Bruce Odonoghue.  Florida’s late primary date isn’t going to give the Repubs much time to get behind their eventual candidate, either. There are some that think because of his bullish nature that generic R could beat Grayson and his 1.45 million cash on hand, but I don’t.  Not in a city like Orlando that is trending bluer and bluer by the day.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Florida-9 – Gus Bilirakis/Republican – Another oddly shaped district, this one covers the area north of Tampa/St Petersburg, with Clearwater/Dunedin as it’s main population center.  Even though Obama came with 5% of McCain in this pink-colored district, Bilirakis cruised to re-election by 25%.  I think he’s in really good shape here.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-10 – Bill Young/Republican – The longest-serving member of the Republican house caucus, Bill Young has routinely run up big margins in this Pinellas peninsula district (hey, a compact district in Florida, no way!).  But with him being somewhat non-committal about running for re-election this cycle, this district has some life to it.  The Democrats have also served notice by finding a very strong candidate in state senator Charlie Justice.  Having not faced a real campaign in years, Young could struggle against the young and articulate Justice.  The problem for Justice is that his fundraising hasn’t been good, only 212k raised thus far, but it does give him the money advantage this cycle over Young.  Ultimately I think if Young runs he’ll probably win, but if he retires, the race moves to toss up or possibly even leans dem.  For that reason I’ll stay the middle of those two outcomes for now.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Florida-11 – Kathy Castor/Democrat – Castor’s district is essentially a democratic vote sink in the Tampa/St Petersburg area, and while it’s not hugely democratic to the point where a republican can’t win, there isn’t much in the way of Republican opposition here to make this interesting.

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-12 – Open/Republican – This seat is open because of Adam Putnam running for Florida Agricultural Commissioner, and it’s a potential pickup opportunity for the democrats.  This district is pink in color, but took a hard swing to the left in 2008, where McCain edged out Obama 50-49.  The democrats also have a very solid candidate in Polk County elections supervisor Lori Edwards.  The republicans counter with their own strong candidate, former state representative Dennis Ross.  Currently, Ross leads the fundraising game 456k to 176k, so fundraising has been a problem for Edwards.  That’s the one thing that gives the Repubs the edge.  I have a feeling that this could be a much more hotly contested district than most pundits expect.  FWIW, I do remember one poll earlier showing Edwards doing well.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Florida-13 – Vern Buchanan/Republican – Buchanan just barely held off Christine Jennings in 2006 by less than 400 votes to win an open seat election here.  The outcome was disputed, and perhaps voters thought of Jennings as a sore loser, because he crushed her by 18% in the 2008 rematch.  It appears that Buchanan has weathered the storm, because his only opposition is Bradenton city councilman James Golden.  State representative Keith Fitzgerald is the democrats hoped-for #1 recruit but it appears that he is out.  

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-14 – Connie Mack/Republican – This southwest Florida district, centered on Fort Myers, is a very conservative part of south Florida.  Mack should be fine here.

District PVI – R+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-15 – Bill Posey/Republican – Posey won the 15th district’s seat in a 2008 open seat race, winning by 12% over democratic candidate Stephen Blythe.  That’s a big overperformance from the top of the ticket, where McCain struggled and barely beat Obama 51-48.  Given this, the democrats would need a really strong candidate to have a shot, and honestly, they’ve had a bit of a recruiting failure here.  Cape Canaveral councilwoman Shannon Roberts is all they’ve got.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-16 – Tom Rooney/Republican – This seat is interesting because it has turned over the last two election cycles on account of representatives not being able to keep their pants on.  So far, Rooney hasn’t had that problem, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against a non-scandalized combatant.  The democrats were hoping for Dave Aronberg to run for this seat, but he decided to run for Attorney General instead, so Chris Craft is the nominee.  Rooney so far has a huge advantage in fundraising, by a count of 733k to 102k.  I’m not optimistic that this district is going to turn over.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-17 – Open/Democrat – This seat is open as Kendrick Meek is running for the Senate.  The 17th, which centers on downtown Miami, is the most Democratic district in Florida and one of the most liberal in the nation.  The winner of the Dem primary will win the seat easily.

District PVI – D+34

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen/Republican – This district is the southernmost in the continental United States, stretching from south Miami to Key West.  Ileana is one of three Cuban American republicans in south Florida, and she is very well entrenched, to the point where she defeated Annette Taddeo by 15% in 2008 while Obama was busy pulling a 51-48 upset over McCain here.  Given that and the fact that she is generally well liked by most, I really don’t see her going down in 2010.  

District PVI – R+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-19 – Open/Democrat – There is a special election for this seat being held on April 13 because of Robert Wexler’s departure.  Democrat Ted Deutsch is heavily favored to win over Republican Edward Lynch.  I have to figure that there won’t be much activity in this seat in November unless somehow the Republican were to pull an upset, then the Dems would be chomping at the bit to get it back.

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-20Debbie Wasserman-Schulz/Democrat – This seat is very democratic in nature, and DWS is a very popular incumbent who went unopposed in 2008.  Nothing to see here.

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-21Mario Diaz-Balart/Republican – I know that Diaz-Balart isn’t technically the incumbent here, his brother is, but with the recent seat switch in the works and Mario’s incumbency in the 25th, he might as well be.  This is a once republican district turned into more of a swing-ish area, as McCain held on for a 51-49 win over Obama in 2008, but with only the relatively unknown William Sanchez in the race for the democrats, a pickup is extremely unlikely.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Florida-22 – Ron Klein/Democrat – This district, which is drawn as a republican vote sink in Palm Beach and Broward counties, was clearly drawn in the hopes of squeezing a republican representative out of a democratic zone.  Ron Klein, the democratic incumbent, took out Allen West 54-45 in 2008, but West is seeking a rematch under a better political environment this time.  He only underperformed McCain by a few points (Obama won 52-47) and he’s fundraising well at 1.22 million to Klein’s 1.4 million, so this is going to be a huge battleground.  Everybody talks about FL-8 and Grayson and maybe FL-24 and Kosmas, but honestly, I think this race is flying way under the radar, and is actually the Repubs’ best chance at a pickup in the Sunshine State.  It helps to actually have a candidate.

District PVI – D+1

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Hold

Florida-23 – Alcee Hastings/Democrat – This is the remainder of Palm Beach and other surrounding counties not taken in by FL-22.  In other words, it’s hugely democratic.  Nothing for Hastings to worry about.  

District PVI – D+28

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Florida-24 – Suzanne Kosmas/Democrat – The 24th is a district centered around Daytona Beach, and should be a big republican target.  But again, just like in the 8th and several other districts in the south with vulnerable democrats, they’ve had a very hard time on the recruiting front.  In this case they have a divisive primary coming as well. Winter Park commissioner Karen Dieble and state representative Sandy Hood are the leaders among a very crowded primary field.  Making things tougher on the Repubs is that Kosmas is on a fundraising tear, having received 1.1 million thus far.  Unless one of the challengers can win and consolidate support and fundraising dollars quickly following Florida’s late primary date, I think Kosmas is in great shape for a retention.  

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Florida-25 – Open/Republican – Now this is an open seat!  Mario Diaz-Balart’s announcement that he is moving over to the 21st has put this once republican, now more swing-ish seat into play.  McCain edged Obama by 1% in the presidential vote in 2008, meaning that anything is possible.  So far, it appears that state representative David Rivera and state senate majority leader Alex Diaz de la Portilla are the leading republican candidates.  On the democratic side, state representative Luis Rivera is in, though most are waiting on two other possibilities, one being 2008 candidate Joe Garcia, who held Diaz-Balart to a 6% win in 2008, and the other being former Miami mayor Manny Diaz.  Either one of them would be very strong, and would move this seat into the toss up category.  With the primaries falling late in Florida, a lot will depend on who gets in and who triumphs in the parties’ respective primaries.  One thing I do know however, is that CQ and Cook are both out of their minds keeping this one at Safe R.  Seriously, what are they thinking?

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Regional Recap – Well, not much of a recap here, because unlike the first three regions, right now, I don’t see any seats turning over on either side.  So the combined total remains Republican +8 through four regions.  

Next stop…The Eastern Great Lakes