OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Strickland Leads, Dems Narrowly Trail Portman

Quinnipiac (2/16-21, registered voters, 11/5-9 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 37 (36)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (39)

Undecided: 21 (24)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (34)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (38)

Undecided: 23 (27)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Lee Fisher (D): 29 (24)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 20 (22)

Undecided: 48 (51)

(MoE: ±4%)

Quinnipiac (2/16-21, registered voters, 11/5-9 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44 (40)

John Kasich (R): 39 (40)

Undecided: 15 (18)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

I wonder if Ted Strickland’s phones are ringing off the hook as other Democrats call up and ask him what he did to improve his standing for re-election (Strickland has trailed John Kasich in polls for several months, although some of that may have to do with the fact that only Rasmussen has been polling the race regularly). The things is, Strickland may not have an explanation either. My first inclination would be to chalk this up to a sample fluctuation, but seeing as how the Senate matchups and Barack Obama’s approval (44/52, not much change from 45/50) have changed very little since November, it seems like something’s working in Strickland’s favor. It certainly isn’t Ohio’s dismal economy, so maybe it has more to do with previously-undecideds taking a look at Kasich and not liking what they see.

As I said, there’s little change in the Senate general election numbers; both Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner trail Republican ex-Rep. Rob Portman by narrow margins. This race may still be winnable once we head into the home stretch (especially if the Dem nominee taps the currently bulging populist vein against the consummate insider Portman), although the already financially-loaded Portman now has the advantage of not having to fight a primary (with Tom Ganley’s strange decision to move over to OH-13) while Fisher and Brunner keep slugging it out. While half the primary electorate is still undecided, Fisher seems to be putting a little distance between himself and the feisty but flat broke Brunner.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | OH-Gov

31 thoughts on “OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Strickland Leads, Dems Narrowly Trail Portman”

  1. Have said all there is to say there. But Strickland. Very positive. Not sure it is just sample fluctuation since Quinnipiac are quite clear there was across the board improvement in the internal questions. As an aside, I found this spin from former POS VP Robert Moran to be quite desperare.


    Nate Tweeted today – “Biggest myth in polling: that an incumbent under 50% can’t win. Since 2006, 20 of 30 incumbents at <50% in early polling HAVE won.”


  2. really want to support Brunner in the Senate race since she seems like an awesome progressive (especially due to her support of marriage equality)but honestly unless she starts to raise some money and gets more excited Im just gonna support Fisher who seems like a strong populist and is raising just as much as Portman.  

  3. I think it’s kinda funny to say that one candidate is beating the other when 50% of the electorate is non-committal.  Sure the trendline is good for Fisher, but man, Quinnipac needs to learn how to push-poll. 😉

    I’m glad to see that Strickland is sporting better numbers.  I think a lot of voters have been very unfair in blaming him for Ohio’s problems, especially the economy.  Ohio’s economy was already in the shitter in 2006, and most of that is out of his control anyway.  He hasn’t been perfect on the issues (such as being anti-gambling), but he’s done wonders for helping with cost of higher education, expansion of medical coverage and benefits within the state, and several other issues.  

    More importantly, I don’t see where Kasich is more qualified to be governor than Strickland.  I mean seriously, Kasich wants to abolish the state income tax.  Where in the bloody blue hell are we going to find the money to fund the state government without an income tax?  If he thinks that elimination of “pork” and “unnecessary government spending” will get it done, then he’s cucco for Cocoa Puffs.

  4. Rob Portman would be defeated by a decent margin by a Democrat.  Portman is a joke, and if his baggage from the Bush Administration doesn’t pull him down now, wait until 2016.

  5. who thinks these are excellent numbers for Fisher?  He’s polling better than half a dozen incumbent Democrats, and twenty points better than our excellent candidate for DE-Sen, which is a Democratic seat.  I think this win is well within his grasp.

    As for Strickland, that guy’s got political chops out the wazoo.  I never really worried about him winning re-election, no matter what the polls said.

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