Overview
I am predicting that the Democrats will lose 28 seats (net) in the 2010 mid-term elections. I believe we will win 5 seats held by the Republicans, while losing 33 Democrat-held seats.
I have already listed what I consider the 22 most vulnerable Democratic seats in the 2010 mid-term elections. Thanks to all who have provided feedback.
33 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats in the 2010 mid-term elections
The first 22 seats were listed in my previous thread. Without further delay, here is my final list of the 33 most vulnerable House seats:
1. LA-03
2. TN-06
3. AR-01
4. AR-02
5. TN-08
6. ID-01
7. MD-01
8. VA-05
9. KS-03
10. AL-02
11. MS-01
12. WA-03
13. NM-02
14. CO-04
15. IN-08
16. OH-01
17. OH-15
18. PA-07
19. NH-02
20. VA-02
21. IN-09
22. NY-29
23. NV-03
24. NY-23
25. PA-11
26. TX-17
27. NH-01
28. PA-12
29. FL-24
30. NY-24
31. MI-07
32. FL-22
33. AZ-05
I should point out that in my own handicapping of these races, several of the above races are listed as “Tossup-Tilt D”. I believe we will win several of these races. However, as most of you know, many of these races will be a nail-biter that could go either way. If it wasn’t for the current political environment swinging against the Democrats, I would believe we would retain at least half of these seats. It’s only February, so maybe the Democrats will pick up some momentum and retain many vulnerable seats.
As a side note, this exercise has been a lot of fun, and I really appreciate everyone providing insight on these races. Feel free to comment on potential substitutes that can replace any of these seats that I have listed.
Don’t the Democrats at least have a bench in that district that they can draw from? I would rank TN-06 above it if only because the DCCC appears to have given up on holding that one.
I expect us to lose most of those seats and pick up only a small handful of GOP-held seats, but even if the Republicans swept your whole list they wouldn’t take back the House. A small swing in our favor that saved, say, 10 of these seats would make a big difference.
We desperately need prospects for Dems to improve in NH. Losing those two House seats and failing to pick up Gregg’s Senate seat would be a disaster.
I think we’ll win:
AR-01, AR-02, TN-08, WA-03, PA-12 – superior Dem benches in open seat races.
FL-22 and FL-24 – strong incumbent fundraising.
NY-23 – because Doug Hoffman will fuck things up for the Republicans one way or another.
Only two not on your list that I think we’ll lose – IA-03 and FL-08. A lot of folks seem to disagree with me on both of those. I think there are major problems with the candidates – Boswell just being generally lackluster (kind of Kanjorski-like but not as bad) and Grayson not because of his partisanship but because he shows some signs of mental instability. I hope I’m wrong.
This really should be on the list. Adler is tied at the hip with a corrupt machine and is one of the dozen most conservative Democrats in the House. He needs a big vote from traditional Democrats as his district has a slight Republican lean (52-47 Obama and 50-49 Bush over Kerry). He’s giving the base no reason to turn out.
The only thing Adler has going for himself so far is a weal Republican field.