NM-01, NM-02, NM-03: Teague Trails Pearce By 2

Public Policy Polling (2/18-20, registered voters):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 45

Jon Barela (R): 36

Undecided: 19

Harry Teague (D-inc): 41

Steve Pearce (R): 43

Undecided: 16

Ben Lujan (D-inc): 40

Adam Kokesh (R): 32

Undecided: 28

Ben Lujan (D-inc): 42

Tom Mullins (R): 36

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PPP’s NM-Gov sample comes with an added bonus: results for each of the Land of Enchantment’s three House races. The big ticket item here is NM-02, where Rep. Harry Teague is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents going into November. That’s not so much because of the district’s lean (it’s R+6 and has a Hispanic plurality — Walt Minnick and Bobby Bright would kill for R+6) but because Teague is facing off against ex-Rep. Steve Pearce, who held the district for a number of years until his ill-fated 2008 Senate run, and is still well-thought-of here (as seen by his 43/31 favorables). While I’d certainly prefer to see Teague leading, all things considered, the 43-41 lead for Pearce feels not-that-bad. Like Tom Perriello in VA-05, Teague seems to have been already written off as a casualty by mainstream media pundits, not only having won a superficially-fluky victory in a reddish district but also having voted for cap-and-trade instead of cowering with the Blue Dogs. And yet (just like Perriello) PPP finds him in a dead heat.

The race in the 1st — between freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich and Jon Barela, the former head of Albuquerque’s Hispanic Chamber of Commerce — is one that, even before this poll, I’d have classified as “Likely D,” given the district’s lean (D+5) and Heinrich’s convincing 2008 victory. The Republicans will have to make a serious dent in the currently “Likely D” seats in order to retake the majority, but it’s looking like NM-01 isn’t on track to be one of those seats where they do.

In fact, the Republicans actually come a little closer in the 3rd, which is the state’s traditionally most Democratic-friendly district at D+7 (although this was briefly held by a Republican in the 1990s after a surprisingly strong Green Party performance in a special election). Part of the problem may lie with its Rep, Ben Lujan (the only one of the three to sport negative approvals, at 31/40 — Teague, by comparison, is at 41/36), but I suspect the 3rd is also a very difficult district to poll. It’s a rural, impoverished district where a sizable number of the Democratic base voters may not speak English or have landlines, which may give more weight to the district’s Republicans clustered around Farmington.

RaceTracker Wiki: NM-01 | NM-02 | NM-03

20 thoughts on “NM-01, NM-02, NM-03: Teague Trails Pearce By 2”

  1. Chet Edwards

    Patrick Murphy

    Tom Periello

    Harry Teague

    Every day goes by keeps suggesting I’ve picked 4 guys who are all going to win and do it closely, while voting for some real good legislation (or in Chet’s case willing to support it if need be).

    I’m liking Teague’s odds of winning, despite being down 2.

  2. How many of these R+6 type seats do we hold?  How many can we expect to hold in the longrun when we run good candidate against their top candidate?

    As this race goes, so goes the nation (the R+0 to R+7 part anyway).

  3. these folks (with the exception of pearce) have all only been in office for a year.  they simply aren’t that well-known.  if tom udall was running for reelection, he’d probably be in the 60s.

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