Our first poll of the race from Public Policy Polling (2/18-20, registered voters):
Diane Denish (D): 45
Pete Domenici, Jr. (R): 40
Undecided: 15Diane Denish (D): 44
Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 33
Undecided: 19Diane Denish (D): 46
Susana Martinez (R): 32
Undecided: 21Diane Denish (D): 46
Doug Turner (R): 32
Undecided: 22Diane Denish (D): 48
Allen Weh (R): 30
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)
Pretty decent, though not overwhelming, numbers for Lt. Gov. Diane Denish here, particularly given outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson’s disastrous 28-63 job approval. Domenici leads the Republican pack thanks to his superior name recognition (thanks, dad!), a fact corroborated by a recent poll conducted by a crew of forced laborers college students giving Domenici the inside track for the GOP nomination. But does Domenici, an “environmental” attorney who has never been elected to anything in his life, have the chops to turn a five point deficit into a win?
RaceTracker Wiki: NM-Gov
No.
in an anti-incumbent year when the son of the former speaker of the house can’t get the nomination in his dad’s old district?
Even though Denish should stomp just about everybody, Domenici Jr. still has some things to prove. I don’t think he has the political skills to campaign in a state like ours. Denish has been doing this for years and has quite the support group around the state, not to mention the cash.
Another problem, is that some of the hard-core Allen Weh/Doug Turner voters may call it quits after Jr. gets the nod. He’s not going to be clear enough in his conservative ideals to appease people who actually care about political issues and are not just in it cuz their dad is famous. Domenici Sr’s endorsement didn’t do shit for Heather Wilson and bringing those conservative voters.
Finally, Denish is from sourthern NM and that means she plays well in the most conservative part of the state. Jr. would have to win NM-2 and NM-1. He’s going to have a tough time beating her because I suspect that NM-1, NM-3 and even NM-2 will break for her in the end. Same thing with Udall. NM statewide is a hard nut for Republicans to crack.
New Mexico, according to the Census Bureau, is a majority minority state with only 41.7% of its population non-Hispanic whites vs. 44.9% Hispanic and 9.7% native Americans. NM Republicans have a recent, active history in suppressing and/or not counting native American votes and to a lesser degree Hispanic votes. Given the anti-immigrant tenor, Domenici or any Republican will be running up hill.
Funny thing, a lot of the Hispanics have been in New Mexico longer than most of the Anglos.
What has caused Bill Richardson’s approval to crater? I remember a time when his name was gold in that state. If it’s something besides the whole “anti-everyone” mood, I’d really like some kind of insight.