MI-Gov: Dillon Gets In, GOPers Still Lead

EPIC-MRA for Detroit Free Press, WXYZ-TV, WOOD-TV, WJRT-TV, and WILX-TV (2/22-25, likely voters, 1/24-25 in parens):

Andy Dillon (D): 17 (6)

Dan Kildee (D): 12 (5)

Virg Bernero (D): 8 (5)

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 7 (2)

Someone else: 12 (31)

Undecided: 45 (51)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 27 (22)

Mike Cox (R): 21 (26)

Rick Snyder (R): 12 (3)

Mike Bouchard (R): 10 (13)

Tom George (R): 1 (3)

Someone else: 3 (0)

Undecided: 26 (32)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Andy Dillon (D): 37 (32)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 41 (40)

Undecided: 21 (28)

Andy Dillon (D): 36 (30)

Mike Cox (R): 43 (47)

Undecided: 21 (23)

Dan Kildee (D): 37

Peter Hoekstra (R): 41

Undecided: 22

Dan Kildee (D): 37

Mike Cox (R): 46

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

With the official entry into the race by Democratic state House speaker Andy Dillon, it’s starting to look like the Michigan gubernatorial race is coming back into focus again. You’ll recall that it got completely scrambled over the last few months, with Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s unexpected departure from the race and then the somewhat surprising decision by Denise Ilitch not to seek the nomination. The newest poll from EPIC-MRA shows Dillon leading the way in the Democratic primary, although only with 17% of the vote. Dillon has an advantage in being the only centrist (socially conservative and business-friendly) Dem in the field, while former Genesee County treasurer Dan Kildee, Lansing mayor Virg Bernero, and state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith divide up the more liberal votes. If there’s some winnowing of the field on the left, it seems like one labor-backed candidate could pull ahead of Dillon.

Despite their ideological differences, Dillon and Kildee poll pretty similarly against Republican Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox. Head-to-heads were tested only for the top two candidates from each party. While these numbers still find the Democrats losing (although only by 4 against the right-wing Hoekstra, whose appeal to moderates seems limited), these are better numbers than Cherry — linked inextricably with the unpopular Jennifer Granholm administration — was putting up, as he was often down by double digits. On the GOP side, though, it seems like Hoekstra and Cox might want to be watching over their shoulders for wealthy businessman Rick Snyder, whose “one tough nerd” ads (which included a Super Bowl spot) have succeeded in buying him a lot of name rec and vaulting him into contention. The surge by the moderate Snyder seems to come partly at Cox’s expense, which allows Hoekstra to push into the lead among the GOPers.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov