StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – Part 7

Hello, and welcome to part 7 of my 2010 baseline predictions for the House of Representatives.  In this section I will cover the Western Great Lakes.  This region encompasses the states of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  There are 35 total seats in this region, the smallest region we’ve covered so far.  Of those 35 seats, 22 are currently held by the democrats, and 13 are held by the republicans.  The region is one of the most liberal in the United States, although the more northerly states can occasionally be swingish.  I think this will be one of the democrats’ best regions in the 2010 elections, where they probably won’t lose many seats, and might actually gain.  The reason for that is that the democrats have a lot of entrenched incumbents in the swing districts here (kinda like how the republicans did in the Eastern Great Lakes), and the national mood will have to be really strong to touch them.

First off, a recap of where we’ve been, and where we still have to go*:

Northeast – Rep +3 – (Rep pickups of NH-1, NY-24, NY-29)

Mid-Atlantic – Even – (Rep pickups of PA-11, MD-1, Dem pickups of PA-6, DE-1)

Upper South – Rep +5 (Rep pickups of VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8)

South Atlantic – Even – (no pickups on either side)

Eastern Great Lakes – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of OH-1, MI-7, IN-8)

South Gulf – Rep +3 (Rep pickups of AL-2, MS-1, LA-3, TX-17, Dem pickup of LA-2)

Western Great Lakes –

Central Plains –

Rocky Mountains –

Pacific Coast –

Total National Score – Rep +14

* – Please note that in most cases these ratings were done prior to any polling becoming known.  

Illinois-1 – Bobby Rush/Democrat – We begin the region in the Chicago area, which is the democratic center of the Midwest.  This particular district is the 14th most democratic in the nation, so Rush is safe.

District PVI – D+34

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-2 – Jessie Jackson Jr/Democrat – Another very liberal district here, this one the 8th most democratic in the country.  No problem for Jackson.

District PVI – D+36

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-3 – Dan Lipinski/Democrat – This part of the Chicago metroplex, mostly its southwestern suburbs, isn’t quite as liberal as the rest of the urban core, but it’s still not anything to worry about.  

District PVI – D+11

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-4 – Luis Gutierrez/Democrat – One of the most hideous gerrymanders in the country, IL-4 is very democratic and an easy win for Gutierrez.  I don’t know why the district is drawn like this, it must be a racial gerrymander or something like that.

District PVI – D+32

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-5 – Mike Quigley/Democrat – Rahm Emanuel’s old district on the north side, like most parts of Chicago, is a democratic bastion.  Quigley, who won a 2009 special election for the seat, has nothing to worry about.  

District PVI – D+19

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-6 – Peter Roskam/Republican – This once conservative district in Chicago’s western suburbs has really moved to the left recently, part of which may have been an Obama-related anomaly.  Roskam though, is fairly well entrenched, and the democrats have had a bit of a recruiting shortfall, as Ben Lowe is the only Dem candidate in the race.  Roskam’s 1.05 million in funds raised this cycle would make this a tough one anyway.

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Illinois-7 –  Danny Davis/Democrat – There was talk earlier in the cycle that Davis was running for a Cook County office, but even if he had done so, an open seat here would’ve been no sweat.  This is the 12th most democratic district in the nation.

District PVI – D+35

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-8 – Melissa Bean/Democrat – The 8th consists of Chicago’s northwest suburbs and exurbs, and once was a republican stronghold.  In fact, Bush won here by 12% in 2004, but Obama crushed McCain by 15% four years later, one of the biggest turnarounds in the whole country.  The Republicans appeared to have strong challengers lined up here in Long Grove mayor Maria Rodriguez, and businessman Dirk Beveridge and Chris Giessler, but Bean caught a break when the republicans instead nominated uber-conservative financial analyst Joe Walsh.  Between that matchup and Bean’s outstanding fundraising (1.04 million so far), I’m itching to move this to solid D, but in this environment, I can’t.  Still, Bean is in great shape.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Illinois-9 – Jan Schakowsky/Democrat – This district covers Chicago’s northern inner suburbs, and is very democratic.  Schakowsky is safe.

District PVI – D+20

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-10 – Open/Republican – This is without a doubt the biggest open seat headache the republicans face this cycle, as Mark Kirk bailed to run for the Senate (which might turn out well for them, who knows).  This district, which is comprised of Chicago’s northern suburbs, voted very heavily for Obama in 2008, by a 61-38 count, yet Kirk was able to beat Dan Seals by 9%.  Now the eternal question is was Kirk that good, or was Seals that bad?  We’ll soon find out, both in Kirk’s Senate bid vs Illinois treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, and here, where Seals is in the race for a third time.  He defeated Julie Hamos in the democratic primary by a razor-thin 1% margin.  Meanwhile, the democrats caught a break as respected moderate Elizabeth Coulson lost the republican primary to conservative Bob Dold.  A Coulson victory probably would’ve put this race into Leans R status, but against Dold, Seals has a good chance at winning.

District PVI – D+6

Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up

Prediction – Weak Dem Pickup (4th overall)

Total National Score – Rep +13

Illinois-11 – Debbie Halvorson/Democrat – Halvorson won her 2008 race fairly easily, and was probably boosted by Obama a bit as he carried the district by 8% in 2008.  The good news for Halvorson is that her district is fairly moderate, and her fundraising has been nothing short of prodigious so far, at 1.25 million so far.  The bad news is that the Republicans got a very solid recruit here.  Adam Kinzinger, a pilot in the Illinois Air National Guard, has been campaigning and fundraising pretty well thus far.  He’s down quite a bit in the cash race but such youthful and articulate challengers are a rarity on the republican side, so he’s got a chance at pulling an upset.  Unless he can up his fundraising though, that chance will remain narrow.  

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Illinois-12 – Jerry Costello/Democrat – We head out of the Chicago area and into downstate Illinois now, and IL-12 is a slightly democratic district lying along the lower Mississippi valley.  Costello is fairly well entrenched here, so I don’t foresee a competitive race.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-13 – Judy Biggert/Republican – Biggert, who’s usually a very tough incumbent, had a bout of toughness dealt her way by Scott Harper, who held her to a single digit victory in 2008.  Harper is back for another chance at this swing district, but it’s going to be tough sledding for him as Biggert is way up on him in the fundraising battle 804k to 179k.  Plus, he won’t have native son Barack Obama on the ticket with him, so turnout may not be in his favor.  I’m not writing this one off completely, but this is a very uphill climb for Harper.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Illinois-14 – Bill Foster/Democrat – For years, this northern Illinois seat was republican held, in fact this was Dennis Hastert’s former seat, which Foster won in a 2008 special election.  Foster has been on a fundraising rampage, collecting 1.45 million so far in the cycle, which is even bigger when you consider that republicans Ethan Hastert and Randy Hultgren just got done with a tough primary.  Hultgren won the race, to the surprise of many, so he’ll take on Foster.  With only 10k cash on hand at the moment, it’ll be tough, but Foster isn’t exactly entrenched and the wind is at his back, so anything is possible.

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Illinois-15 – Timothy Johnson/Republican – Johnson is a fairly entrenched incumbent in this eastern Illinois district centered on Champaign-Urbana.  The Dems have one candidate, David Gill, but his fundraising hasn’t gone well.  Even though Johnson isn’t sitting on a mountain of cash and Obama nearly won this district in 2008, I don’t see it flipping now.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Illinois-16 – Don Manzullo/Republican – Now this is a district that should be ripe for a possible takeover at some point.  Barack Obama won here by a 53-46 count, and the republican incumbent is getting up in years a bit.  Manzullo doesn’t have much opposition and should win easily, but if this seat ever comes open, Team Red will have a tough time holding on.  

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Illinois-17 – Phil Hare/Democrat – The very badly gerrymandered 17th is a slightly democratic district consisting mostly of towns in the Mississippi valley.  Hare is a well-entrenched incumbent and like Manzullo, doesn’t have much opposition.  He should be safe.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Illinois-18 – Aaron Schock/Republican – If ever there was a politician that got by on looks, Aaron Schock is it.  As the youngest member of the House, I can’t think of anything substantive the man has done since winning in a 2008 open seat race.  Yet he seems to be in good shape, the only real democratic opposition here is environmental activist Diedre Hirner.  The challenger is badly behind in cash on hand, down by a 10-1 margin, which makes this an extreme longshot for Team Blue.

District PVI – R+6

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Illinois-19 – John Shimkus/Republican – This is the most republican district in Illinois, consisting of much of the state’s southern tier.  Shimkus should be fine here.

District PVI – R+9

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Wisconsin-1 – Paul Ryan/Republican – Arguably a rising star in the Republican Party, Paul Ryan has a virtual lock on this southeastern Wisconsin district, a great feat considering Obama beat McCain here by 4%.  

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Wisconsin-2 – Tammy Baldwin/Democrat – Like Ryan in the 1st, Tammy Baldwin is in firm control in her district, which is based around the state’s capital, Madison.  

District PVI – D+15

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Wisconsin-3 – Ron Kind/Democrat – Kind has been very popular in the 3rd district for some time now.  He defeated his 2008 challenger by nearly 30 points, almost doubling the victory margin Barack Obama had against John McCain.  Republican hopes seemed to hinge on Kind running for the open gubernatorial seat, but he decided against that.  State senator Dan Kapanke has been heralded as a strong challenger here but with fundraising at just 183k thus far, almost 900k behind Kind in cash on hand, it’s hard to imagine much coming out of this race.

District PVI – D+4

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Wisconsin-4 – Gwen Moore/Democrat – Moore is based in central Milwaukee, which along with Madison, is a very liberal place.  No lost sleep for Moore.

District PVI – D+22

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Wisconsin-5 – Jim Sensenbrenner/Republican – This is the only safe Republican district in Wisconsin, consisting of most of Milwaukee’s northern and western suburbs/exurbs.  It’s interesting how much more republican Milwaukee’s suburbs are than other cities in the Midwest, outside of maybe Indianapolis.  At any rate, he’s safe.

District PVI – R+12

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Wisconsin-6 – Tom Petri/Republican – Barack Obama pulled off a shocking win in this mostly rural/exurban district by a 50-49 count, but in all honesty, I don’t think the well-entrenched Petri will fret over that too much.  He’s safe.  

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Wisconsin-7 – David Obey/Democrat – This democratic-leaning district went big time for Barack Obama, he beat McCain by 14 points here, the same as his statewide average.  Obey, one of the oldest incumbents in the House of Representatives, should be fine, although his 21% win margin perhaps wasn’t as dominating as it looks because of the favorable 2008 cycle.  Obey has been fundraising as though he expects a strong challenge, he’s over 900k this cycle.  The two confirmed Republicans are Dan Mielke and Sean Duffy.  My guess is that the cycle could hold down Obey’s win margin, but he’s not in any kind of particular danger.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Wisconsin-8 – Steve Kagen/Democrat – If there’s going to be any turnovers in Wisconsin in 2010, this is probably where it will happen.  The Green Bay-based 8th covers much of northeastern Wisconsin, and for a long time was a Republican stronghold.  That changed in a big way as Obama beat McCain 53-45 and Kagen beat ex-Rep John Gard by an identical margin.  Kagen initially beat Gard in 2006 by a 2% count.  The republicans are trying hard to win this seat back, and the primary field is huge.  Perhaps the leader in the pack is small business owner Reid Ribble, he has the best fundraising numbers so far at 182k.  Other names are former Door County GOP chair Marc Savard, state representative Roger Roth, and former state representative Terri McCormick.  Kagen is doing well in fundraising, having raised 798k to this point.  This looks to be a tense race, but the leftward trend of the district plus the fractured republican primary field will make this a tough pickup for the GOP.

District PVI – R+2

Stephen’s Rating – Leans D

Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold

Minnesota-1 – Tim Walz/Democrat – We now move to the land of the 10000 lakes, which looks to be mostly boring in 2010, outside of one district in particular that we’ll get to in a bit.  If the Republicans are going to net any gains in MN though, this is where they’ll need to do it.  Walz represents the southern tier of the state, a constituency that leans very slightly republican but that supported Obama over McCain 51-47.  Between where I get my research there seems to be some dispute as to who is actually in the GOP primary here, it tells me that asst. house minority leader Randy Demmer, congressional aide Jim Hagedorn, and former state representative Allen Quist are the major players but that the race is very much contested.  Regardless, though Walz’s outright liberal streak concerns me a bit, I think he’s in the clear because of his obvious popularity in the district.  

District PVI – R+1

Stephen’s Rating – Likely D

Prediction – Strong Dem Hold

Minnesota-2 – John Kline/Republican – It would appear to the casual observer that Kline is the safest member of the republican delegation in Minnesota.  But the democrats claim to have a few tough challengers ready to go, one being former state representative Shelley Madore.  Former airline pilot Dan Powers is also in the race.  Really though, I think Kline may be overly conservative, but he doesn’t tend to show off and make a jerk of himself, unlike a certain counterpart to the north.  I think he’s fine.

District PVI – R+4

Stephen’s Rating – Solid R

Prediction – Solid Rep Hold

Minnesota-3 – Erik Paulsen/Republican – This seat was a huge missed opportunity for the democrats in 2008 as an entrenched incumbent had retired and the seat was open.  Paulsen caught a huge break when the DFL, in essence, backed the wrong candidate, going with Iraq veteran Ashwin Madia over state senator Terri Bonoff, which helped lead to his 8% win.  Obama won over McCain by a 52-46 count in the presidential race.  Bonoff isn’t running again to the chagrin of the DCCC, but Paulsen won’t be without  competition this time around, as State PTA president Jim Meffert and physician Maureen Hackett are running in the DFL primary.  Hackett is leading in fundraising with 138k, but that pales in comparison with Paulsen’s illustrious 1.18 million total.  In a tight district like this, the incumbent always has to work hard, but I don’t see a Dem pickup as very likely.

District PVI – Even

Stephen’s Rating – Likely R

Prediction – Strong Rep Hold

Minnesota-4 – Betty McCollum/Democrat – The St. Paul-based 4th is solidly democratic, so McCollum is safe.  

District PVI – D+13

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Minnesota-5 – Keith Ellison/Democrat – The Minneapolis-based 5th is another democratic stronghold, and is the most liberal part of Minnesota.  No problem for Ellison.

District PVI – D+23

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Minnesota-6 Michelle Bachmann/Republican – Here in the northern and northwestern exurbs of the twin cities lies perhaps the single most ridiculous, deranged, and insane member of the House, Michelle Bachmann.  The 6th wasn’t expected to be a major battleground in 2008, but after Bachmann made some McCarthy-esque comments late in the campaign, her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenburg, surged in fundraising and in the polls.  She won the race by 3%, getting by with a 46-43 plurality, well behind John McCain’s 53-45 win over Obama.  It’s hard to judge whether Bachmann is truly popular/unpopular in the 6th based on this result, but she does have several factors working in her favor.  First off, she’s collected 1.54 million this cycle, which is huge.  Second, the democratic primary is going to be a very tough affair between Minnesota senate majority leader Tarryl Clark and physician Maureen Reed, both of whom have raised roughly 600k so far.  I have little doubt that either Clark or Reed will be a formidable challenger, but I worry about the cost of a divisive primary here.  Team Blue’s chances are also brought down by the presence of democratic-leaning independent Troy Friehammer.  The presence of the independence party may have cost Tinklenburg a win in 2008.  Regrettably, I think Bachmann holds on.  If Clark wins the primary the chances of a pickup may increase nominally.  

District PVI – R+7

Stephen’s Rating – Leans R

Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold

Minnesota-7 – Collin Peterson/Democrat – Peterson is a very conservative democrat who is well entrenched in this western Minnesota district.  Despite the partisan lean of the district, which gave John McCain a 3% win in 2008, it doesn’t appear that Team Red is even contesting the seat.

District PVI – R+5

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Minnesota-8 – James Oberstar/Democrat – Oberstar, like Peterson, is a well entrenched incumbent.  The district, which runs across northeastern Minnesota, used to be a democratic stronghold mostly due to organized labor but it is becoming more republican.  Oberstar is getting up in years, so an open seat situation would be tough, but for now, it’s a safe win.

District PVI – D+3

Stephen’s Rating – Solid D

Prediction – Solid Dem Hold

Region Recap – Well, well, well, look what we have here.  I’ve got the Democrats gaining 1 seat in the Western Great Lakes (IL-10), and the Republicans gaining none.  That makes this region so far the only region in which Team Blue has ended up on the plus side.  The pickup of IL-10 gives Team Blue 4 total pickups now, compared with 17 for Team Red, giving the GOP a net advantage of +13 seats through 7 regions.  

Next stop…The Central Plains