Texas Primary Preview

Primary season continues tomorrow in Texas, which is the second state in the nation (after Illinois) to conduct its primaries. Texas also has a top-two run-off (scheduled for April 13th) for any races where the leading candidate fails to clear 50% in the first round. (For a complete primary & run-off calendar, click here.) Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:

  • TX-Gov (R): A race that started out with so much potential for wingnut-on-wingnut violence has turned into an utter disappointment. Generally disliked incumbent Gov. Rick Perry has found a way to make the teabaggers love him, and the once-formidable Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison already looks defeated. The only question at this point is recently ex-truther Debra Medina combines with KBH to take enough of the vote to force a run-off. For maximum possible damage, root for Medina to finish second.

  • TX-Gov (D): Former Houston Mayor Bill White ought to be able to clean up without a problem here. His opponent, hair-care impresario Farouk Shami, has proven to be an utter embarrassment, dabbling (much like Medina) in trutherism. An ideal outcome for Dems would be White clearing 50% while Republicans have to slug it out in a second round.

  • TX-04 (R): Rep. Ralph Hall has drawn about as many primary challengers as he has years in his bones – a trillion. And some of them have real money. Telecom exec and teabagger Steve Clark, who nearly duelled Hall in 2004 before he switched to the GOP, has dumped in $300K of his own gold bullion. Some Dude Jerry Ray Hall (no relation) had also promised to toss in a similar sum, but he’s never clocked in on the FEC website. Will all this money sloshing around lead to a split vote, or will the unimaginably crusty Hall get toppled? He was a lousy Dem when he was one, but I still wouldn’t mind seeing this turncoat get turned out.

  • TX-18 (D): Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee faces a primary challenge from Houston city councilman Jarvis Johnson, but it’s hard to see Johnson as much of a threat – he filed at the last minute and raised less than $30K, while Jackson Lee has half a mil in the bank. (Another candidate, attorney Sean Roberts, never seemed to even file with the FEC.) SJL got the cistomary endorsement from President Obama, which Charles Kuffner interprets as a sign of strength – why would Obama stick his neck out if she were unlikely to cruise? In any event, once this primary is over, Rep. Jackson Lee needs to make a sizable contribution to the DCCC.

  • TX-23 (D): We put Rep. Ciro Rodriguez on our House Open Seat Watch because he lost a primary as a sitting representative once before, and he drew a challenge this year once again, from lawyer & Iraq vet Miguel Ortiz. However, Ortiz has raised little money, and his FEC reports are a mess.
  • TX-23 (R): Ciro Rodriguez may not exactly be a formidable force in politics – but neither, it seems is, Francisco “Quico” Canseco. Canseco, a wealthy businessman, spent almost a million of his own money on the GOP primary in 2008, yet lost in an upset to former Bexar Co. Comm’r Lyle Larson (who in turn lost to Rodriguez in the general). Nonetheless, Canseco is back for another shot, and yet again, he’s facing an upstart – this time former CIA agent William Hurd. Canseco is spending far less of his own money; he’s chipped in about $57K while raising only $220K overall. Hurd has pulled in $152K. Canseco may have “loser” stamped on him (he lost a 2004 GOP primary in TX-28 as well), but Ciro may prefer to face off against Hurd rather than Quico’s millions.

Other races of interest include the Dem primaries for Lieut. Gov. (former Travis Co. DA Ronnie Earle vs. union leader Linda Chavez-Thompson) and Ag. Comm’r (2006 nominee Hank Gilbert vs. permanent pain-in-the-ass Kinky Friedman). There are also several Republican primaries for seats on the Texas Board of Education (the all-important curriculum-setter and textbook-buyer) between lunatics and moderates. And though we’ve highlighted only one such race, 11 out of 20 TX GOP House incumbents have drawn primary challenges, so keep an eye out for any unusually weak results.

UPDATE: Two other GOP House primaries you might want to keep an eye on: in TX-32, Pete Sessions faces David Smith, an accountant who was one of the first anywhere to announce a Tea Party-powered challenge to a Republican incumbent. Smith’s fundraising never really caught up with his initial splash, though. And in TX-17, there’s a primary for the unenviable task of taking on Chet Edwards. Bill Flores is the guy with the money; Rob Curnock is the guy with the grassroots, and he was the 2008 candidate so he can claim dibsies.

As always, if you know of any other interesting races, please let us know in comments.

UPDATE: Trowaman tells Texas Dems to REPRESENT:

REMINDER TO TEXANS: ATTEND YOUR PRECINCT CONVENTION!

Remember in 2008 how we had a primary and a caucus? Well it happens again tomorrow. Your precinct convention (aka caucus) has no bearing on the election results but it does help determine who will go to the state convention as a delegate. I made it to Austin 2 years ago and intend to go to Corpus Christi this year. If you want to go to the state convention, you must get selected as a delegate at your precinct convention and then be selected as a delegate again at your county convention to be held on Sat., March 20th.

State Convention will be June 25-26, 2010.

IF YOU WANT TO BE A DELEGATE, SHOW UP AT YOUR PRECINCT ELECTION DAY VOTING LOCATION AT 7:15 P.M. ON ELECTION DAY MARCH 2ND.

More details here.

35 thoughts on “Texas Primary Preview”

  1. Rick Perry – 45%

    Kay Bailey Hutchison – 42%

    Debra Medina – 13%

    I’m going against the grain here, predicting Hutchison to overperform in the face of the press all but writing her off. Here’s my suspicion – Medina supporters realize their candidate no longer has a real shot at making the run-off with Perry, let alone outright winning the primary. The folks who will probably stay true and loyal to her are the hardcore-libertarian, teabaggy, Ron Paul types who would vote Perry over Hutchison. Hutchison’s recent bad press will only keep this sect further aback from breaking to Perry, who, in poll after poll, is up massively over Hutchison. The folks who are probably more prone to bolt from Medina, I think, are the anti-Perry conservatives who, while not huge fans of Hutchison, don’t want to see Perry win this outright. They’ll break for Hutchison just to keep Perry from winning by default. Hutchison’s made some comments recently to suggest that she’s clearly behind Perry. However, her aggressive campaigning at the 11-o-clock-hour leads me to believe her camp thinks Perry’s struggling to make it across the finish line.

  2. Lt. Gov (D) should be near the top to watch. You mentioned Chavez-Thompson and Earle, but there is a third candidate in Marc Katz. Katz ain’t qualified but he’s rich (and makes one of the best sandwiches I’ve ever had, SERIOUSLY!) and could draw enough of the vote to force a run off here. Still, Chavez-Thompson (who I decided on and voted for in the voting booth) will prob get the nom due to strengths of female, hispanic, labor ties, and only one who has been on tv.

    Land Commissioner (D) – Ruite for Fmr. State Sen. Hector Uribe over the some dude. We’ll see what happens.

    HD-146 (D) Boris Miles vs Al Edwards (AGAIN) Miles beat incumbent Edwards in 2006, Edwards beat incumbent Miles in 2008 after Miles went cray and did some stuff involving being drunk and waving a gun at a party. Well, round 3 with the more progressive Miles coming back again to take on corporate shill Al Edwards.

    HD-66 (R) Open seat in Plano. Was held by a decent moderate Republican and I paid it no attention. Then my tv in Denton has been graced with the likes of . . . VAN TAYLOR! Y’know Chet Edwards highly touted 2006 opponent. He moved out of College Station (hour out of Houston) to Plano (Rich white area north of Dallas)  and is running ads abut how he’s tea party endorsed, talking about a litany of far right social issues that I feel have more relevance in a federal election. I’ll throw up if Van wins, and I know nothing of his opponents, I just want him gone.

    TX-17 (R) Chet Edwards has been getting a lot of talk about being in trouble this cycle by national figures who I doubt have ever been to Texas let alone Waco or College Station. There will probably be a run off, but let’s see who it is. 2008 candidate Rob Curnock who held Chet to 53% is not liked by the establishment could be A LOT of fun to see go against him again (as in a focued Edwards comes back for the smack down ala Van Taylor in 2006 after winning by 1% the year before).

    Other . . . uhm, I dunno. Plenty of State rep races and State Board of Education races I’m sure I’ll learn plenty about as the results come in.

  3. There’s 17 state house Republicans being challenged in primaries.  I’m particularly interested in HD-11.  Rep. Chuck Hopson switched parties and like Parker Griffith hasn’t managed to avoid a primary.

    My statewide votes went to White, Chavez-Thompson, Uribe, Gilbert, and my congressional vote went to Rodriguez.

    C’mon Perry and Medina.

  4. Remember in 2008 how we had a primary and a caucus? Well it happens again tomorrow. Your precinct convention (aka caucus) has no bearing on the election results but it does help determine who will go to the state convention as a delegate. I made it to Austin 2 years ago and intend to go to Corpus Christi this year. If you want to go to the state convention, you must get selected as a delegate at your precinct convention and then be selected as a delegate again at your county convention to be held on Sat., March 20th.

    State Convention will be June 25-26, 2010.

    IF YOU WANT TO BE A DELEGATE, SHOW UP AT YOUR PRECINCT ELECTION DAY VOTING LOCATION AT 7:15 P.M. ON ELECTION DAY MARCH 2ND.

    Hopefully, Ill see some of you in Corpus this year.

  7. There’s also a special for Dave Marsden’s House seat today (HD-41). The Democrat has outspent the Republican 3-1, so I’m pretty confident that it will be a Dem hold.

  8. Would a Perry v. Hutchinson run-off be better for the General than a Perry v. Medina?  If it’s Perry v. Hutchinson then Perry would appear as the right wing conservative and Hutchinson as a person who is closer to the middle, whereas in a Perry v. Medina fight Perry could come off as the candidate closer to the middle!  Not the real middle of course, just an illusion set up by two far right wing conservative candidates.

  13. You guys knock yourselves out at Katz’s…I’m not going back after that little incident.  I thought it was great too until that happened.

    Then I met a girl at a party who used to work there and said it was filthy.

    Just so you know!

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