Tag: TX-04

Primary season continues tomorrow in Texas, which is the second state in the nation (after Illinois) to conduct its primaries. Texas also has a top-two run-off (scheduled for April 13th) for any races where the leading candidate fails to clear 50% in the first round. (For a complete primary & run-off calendar, click here.) Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:

• TX-Gov (R): A race that started out with so much potential for wingnut-on-wingnut violence has turned into an utter disappointment. Generally disliked incumbent Gov. Rick Perry has found a way to make the teabaggers love him, and the once-formidable Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison already looks defeated. The only question at this point is recently ex-truther Debra Medina combines with KBH to take enough of the vote to force a run-off. For maximum possible damage, root for Medina to finish second.
• TX-Gov (D): Former Houston Mayor Bill White ought to be able to clean up without a problem here. His opponent, hair-care impresario Farouk Shami, has proven to be an utter embarrassment, dabbling (much like Medina) in trutherism. An ideal outcome for Dems would be White clearing 50% while Republicans have to slug it out in a second round.
• TX-04 (R): Rep. Ralph Hall has drawn about as many primary challengers as he has years in his bones – a trillion. And some of them have real money. Telecom exec and teabagger Steve Clark, who nearly duelled Hall in 2004 before he switched to the GOP, has dumped in $300K of his own gold bullion. Some Dude Jerry Ray Hall (no relation) had also promised to toss in a similar sum, but he’s never clocked in on the FEC website. Will all this money sloshing around lead to a split vote, or will the unimaginably crusty Hall get toppled? He was a lousy Dem when he was one, but I still wouldn’t mind seeing this turncoat get turned out.
• TX-18 (D): Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee faces a primary challenge from Houston city councilman Jarvis Johnson, but it’s hard to see Johnson as much of a threat – he filed at the last minute and raised less than $30K, while Jackson Lee has half a mil in the bank. (Another candidate, attorney Sean Roberts, never seemed to even file with the FEC.) SJL got the cistomary endorsement from President Obama, which Charles Kuffner interprets as a sign of strength – why would Obama stick his neck out if she were unlikely to cruise? In any event, once this primary is over, Rep. Jackson Lee needs to make a sizable contribution to the DCCC.
• TX-23 (D): We put Rep. Ciro Rodriguez on our House Open Seat Watch because he lost a primary as a sitting representative once before, and he drew a challenge this year once again, from lawyer & Iraq vet Miguel Ortiz. However, Ortiz has raised little money, and his FEC reports are a mess.
• TX-23 (R): Ciro Rodriguez may not exactly be a formidable force in politics – but neither, it seems is, Francisco “Quico” Canseco. Canseco, a wealthy businessman, spent almost a million of his own money on the GOP primary in 2008, yet lost in an upset to former Bexar Co. Comm’r Lyle Larson (who in turn lost to Rodriguez in the general). Nonetheless, Canseco is back for another shot, and yet again, he’s facing an upstart – this time former CIA agent William Hurd. Canseco is spending far less of his own money; he’s chipped in about $57K while raising only $220K overall. Hurd has pulled in $152K. Canseco may have “loser” stamped on him (he lost a 2004 GOP primary in TX-28 as well), but Ciro may prefer to face off against Hurd rather than Quico’s millions.

Other races of interest include the Dem primaries for Lieut. Gov. (former Travis Co. DA Ronnie Earle vs. union leader Linda Chavez-Thompson) and Ag. Comm’r (2006 nominee Hank Gilbert vs. permanent pain-in-the-ass Kinky Friedman). There are also several Republican primaries for seats on the Texas Board of Education (the all-important curriculum-setter and textbook-buyer) between lunatics and moderates. And though we’ve highlighted only one such race, 11 out of 20 TX GOP House incumbents have drawn primary challenges, so keep an eye out for any unusually weak results.

UPDATE: Two other GOP House primaries you might want to keep an eye on: in TX-32, Pete Sessions faces David Smith, an accountant who was one of the first anywhere to announce a Tea Party-powered challenge to a Republican incumbent. Smith’s fundraising never really caught up with his initial splash, though. And in TX-17, there’s a primary for the unenviable task of taking on Chet Edwards. Bill Flores is the guy with the money; Rob Curnock is the guy with the grassroots, and he was the 2008 candidate so he can claim dibsies.

As always, if you know of any other interesting races, please let us know in comments.

UPDATE: Trowaman tells Texas Dems to REPRESENT:

REMINDER TO TEXANS: ATTEND YOUR PRECINCT CONVENTION!

Remember in 2008 how we had a primary and a caucus? Well it happens again tomorrow. Your precinct convention (aka caucus) has no bearing on the election results but it does help determine who will go to the state convention as a delegate. I made it to Austin 2 years ago and intend to go to Corpus Christi this year. If you want to go to the state convention, you must get selected as a delegate at your precinct convention and then be selected as a delegate again at your county convention to be held on Sat., March 20th.

State Convention will be June 25-26, 2010.

IF YOU WANT TO BE A DELEGATE, SHOW UP AT YOUR PRECINCT ELECTION DAY VOTING LOCATION AT 7:15 P.M. ON ELECTION DAY MARCH 2ND.

More details here.

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• CO-Sen: Republican Senate candidate Jane Norton has finally realized that she might be her own worst enemy. Having reeled off a serious of gaffes and wtf? moments that were captured on tape in recent months (sitting silently while a speaker called Barack Obama a “Muslim,” saying that Obama cares more about terrorists’ rights than protecting the country, and just recently saying that government shouldn’t be involved in health care at all), she’s decided that, rather than stopping saying dumb things, the best approach is to have that nasty Democratic tracker banned from all her appearances.

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. has gotten a green light of sorts (or at least a shrug of the shoulders) from David Paterson regarding a primary challenge, who said it was “OK” but that he might look for a different state to do it in. A new piece in the NYT today (who seem to have been interested in promoting his candidacy) may do Ford more harm than good, filled with details of helicopter flights and chauffeured cars that help paint him as an out-of-touch Wall Streeter, not exactly a position you want to run from these days (maybe most damning: “He has breakfast most mornings at the Regency Hotel on Park Avenue, and he receives regular pedicures. (He described them as treatment for a foot condition.)” Ford also might need to explain to the electorate when he decided that Kirsten Gillibrand was no longer acceptable; it turns out that he gave her $1,000 just seven months ago. Finally, with Ford making clear that he’s going to run against health care reform, and awash in a history of pro-life pronouncements, PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at New York exit polls and finds a way for Ford to get to 25% in the primary, but wonders where that other 75% is going to come from.

• PA-Sen: The Joe Sestak candidacy continues to have its desired effect: Arlen Specter just changed his position on the Dawn Johnsen nomination, and will vote for her confirmation, taking it to 60 votes. One possible unintended consequence, though: the more Sestak succeeds at pushing Specter to the left, the less opportunity for differentiating himself in (and thus a basis for winning) the Democratic primary.

• TX-Sen, TX-Gov: We have dueling rumors coming out of Texas, regarding Kay Bailey Hutchison. Fox’s El Paso affiliate is reporting that KBH no longer plans to resign her Senate seat, either before or after the Republican gubernatorial primary. However, a spokesperson from the KBH camp is now saying that report is wrong, and she will resign only when the health care and cap-and-trade debates are over.

• AZ-Gov: A serious primary challenge just hit Arizona Governor Jan Brewer in the eye, like a big pizza pie. State Treasurer Dean Martin put an end to the speculation and officially announced his candidacy today. (There’s still no report on whether CA-41’s Rep. Jerry Lewis will offer his endorsement, or if their feud is still continuing.) While Martin is the highest-profile GOPer to challenge Brewer so far, he’ll still have to fight his way through a crowd of other anti-Brewers, perhaps most prominently former state party chair John Munger.

• CT-Gov: It looks like the Republican gubernatorial field in Connecticut will be limited to Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, rich guy Tom Foley, and now Larry DeNardis, a 71-year-old who most recently was president of the University of New Haven, but served one term in the U.S. House, representing New Haven from 1980 to his defeat in 1982. (Little known bit of trivia: the guy DeNardis defeated in that House race? Joe Lieberman.) State Senate minority leader John McKinney (who previously demurred from a CT-04 run) just reversed course and said he wouldn’t run; state House minority leader Lawrence Cafero, another potential candidate, also recently said ‘no.’

• IA-Gov: Here’s an iceberg on the horizon for the seemingly unsinkable Terry Branstad campaign: poor relations with the state’s religious right, coming to a head now with the prominent Iowa Family PAC endorsing rival Bob Vander Plaats and having unkind words for the insufficiently conservative Branstad, whom they won’t endorse for the general even if he is the nominee. (Discussion underway in desmoinesdem‘s diary.)

• MA-Gov: A day after PPP polled him as a Democratic fill-in for Deval Patrick in the gubernatorial race, SoS William Galvin said that, no, he wasn’t planning on launching a primary challenge against Patrick. Galvin, who’s been SoS since 1994, instead said he might be interested in moving to AG, assuming Martha Coakley becomes Senator.

• SC-Gov: Well, that was kind of anticlimactic. L’affaire Sanford wrapped up today with a quick censure vote of Gov. Mark Sanford that passed the state House by a 102-11 margin.

• FL-25: A longer CQ piece on the House landscape in Florida has an interesting tidbit that suggests that former Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who would have been a top-tier contender in the 25th had he run, won’t be running. Diaz has taken a fellowship appointment at Harvard’s JFK School, which would probably preclude a run. After Democrats running strong in all three Cuban-American districts in 2008, it looks like free passes will be handed out this year.

• MD-04: All previous indications had been that a primary challenge from the right against Rep. Donna Edwards was a go, but instead Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey had announced he won’t pursue that. He’d also been linked with possible runs for county executive and state Senate, so his next step is uncertain.

• NC-08: PPP adds a little information from yesterday’s poll of the 8th, which had freshman Rep. Larry Kissell comfortable against his GOP opposition. The possibility of a primary from the left, from attorney Chris Kouri, has been floated, but Kissell dispatches Kouri easily, 49-15. Only 29% of Democratic respondents in the district want Kissell replaced with someone more progressive, and 27% think Congressional Dems are too liberal vs. 12% who think they’re too conservative, suggesting (in tandem with his general election strength) that his occasional breaks from the party line may be helping more than hurting him.

• NH-02: Gonna make you Swett! The long-rumored  candidacy by wealthy Lieberdem Katrina Swett may be finally getting off the ground, as an invitation to a Jan. 31 Swett event says “Come meet our next U.S. Congresswoman!”

• OH-02: After looking into the possibility of an independent run against Rep. Jean Schmidt and probably Dem nominee David Krikorian, now Surya Yalimanchili (aka that guy from “The Apprentice”) says he’ll get into the Democratic primary instead, saying that his focus on jobs and economic growth is better served there.

• SC-01: After renewed interest in the race following the retirement announcement of GOP Rep. Henry Brown, 2008 candidate Linda Ketner has finally decided against another run. She instead asked her supporters to take a look at Robert Burton, already an announced candidate. On the GOP side, state Sen. Larry Grooms, a frequent Mark Sanford nemesis, cut short his long-shot gubernatorial bid, boxed out by bigger names like Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster. This might presage a run in the still-developing GOP field in the 1st, but he said that’s “unlikely” and he’d rather concentrate on the state Senate.

• TX-04: Add one more serious teabagger primary challenge to the ever-growing list, this time a challenge in the super-dark-red 4th to long-time Rep. Ralph Hall. Jerry Ray Hall (no relation, apparently) is throwing $350K of his own money into race in the fast-approaching March primary. It’s unclear what his beef with the conservative other Hall is (he was a Democrat until 2004 – albeit the most conservative one in the House — so that’s probably good enough).

• VA-11: Rep. Gerry Connolly (by virtue of his Dem-leaning suburban district) still seems the safest of the three Virginia freshman, but things got harder for him with the entry of another GOP challenger: Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity (who narrowly lost the race to become County Chairman after Connolly ascended to the House). Herrity still faces a primary against self-funding Keith Fimian, who lost big-time to Connolly in the open seat race in 2008 and won’t get out of Herrity’s way; Fimian may still be able to beat the better-known Herrity based on his big cash stash.

• WA-02: No one has really thought of Rep. Rick Larsen as vulnerable lately, as he dismantled his at-least-somewhat-touted Republican opponents in the last two elections in this D+3 district. Still, a long-time foe has taken a look at the more favorable Republican landscape and decided to take another whack at Larsen. John Koster (a state Rep. at the time) ran against Larsen and lost in 2000, when it was an open seat following Republican Rep. Jack Metcalf’s retirement. Koster has spent most of the decade on the suburban Snohomish County Council (where he’s currently the only Republican).

• Election results: A lot happened last night, most notably the upset victory by Democratic state Del. Dave Marsden in Virginia’s state Senate district 37 by 317 votes, good for a pickup and a slightly bigger (22-18) Democratic edge in that chamber – which helps insulate against Bob McDonnell trying to Beshear the Dems back into the minority there. Also in Virginia, businessman Jeff McWaters held dark-red Senate district 8 for the GOP, defeating Democrat Bill Fleming by a 79-21 margin. Two other dark-red legislative districts (both made vacant because of Republican sex scandals) stayed in GOP hands, as California’s AD-72 was held by Chris Norby, 63-31, and Tennessee’s HD-83 was won 67-30 by Mark White. In New Hampshire, the field is now set in a potentially competitive general election to fill SD-16 on Feb. 16 (the swing district was vacated by GOPer Ted Gatsas, elected Manchester mayor). State Rep. David Boutin won the GOP nod; he’ll face off against Dem state Rep. Jeff Goley. Dems can push up to a 15-9 edge with a pickup here.

Yep here we go again. With the dust not yet settled on the last challenge in FL-13 (Good luck Christine) we take a look forward to 2008.

Wander below the fold for the good oil.

Well well well. It seems so soon since we were celebrating the Midterm results and our record of contesting 425 Districts. That’s because it is so soon (LOL). Odd thing to do here in Australia watch the midterms but I took the day off work and had a merry old time watching it all unfold on the net and on cable he he he.

Nonetheless time for the 50 State Page to crank up for 2008 courtesy of the redoubtable Barry Welsh. This cycle we have some help however from the magnificent 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go and take a look at them both right now and whilst you are there throw Barry some cash. He will be running again and is rightly a netroots champion.

Now for the good oil;
248 races with confirmed candidates. A confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.

The 248 includes all 233 Democratic incumbents (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts, and all Dem incumbents are also listed as Running But Unconfirmed).

There are also 15 Republican held districts where we have confirmed candidates as follows:
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-21,
IL-14,
IA-04,
MI-07,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NJ-11,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-16,
PA-03,
TX-04.

But wait there is more.
We also have 238 candidates who I believe are running but who are at this stage unconfirmed according to the above criteria. All 233 districts held by Democrats but also 5 districts held by Republicans as follows:

AR-03,
CA-04,
ID-01,
IN-06 hurry up and confirm Barry!,
NJ-05.

We also have 6 rumoured candidates. These guys are mentioned as considering the race in the following districts:
FL-06,
FL-13 *** depends on the outcome of the challenge,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
PA-15,
TX-06.

So we are off and racing for 2008. Use the 2008 Race Tracker wiki as the primary source of gossip and information as it is a fantastic site and I have spent a LOT of time contributing there also.

Any candidate news, particularly opponents for Repubs welcome in the comments!