Research 2000 (4/26-28, likely voters, 4/12-14 in parens):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (45)
Bill Halter (D): 35 (33)
Other: 7 (6)
Undecided: 15 (16)
(MoE: ±5%)
Halter has made a bit of an ascent over the past couple of weeks, pulling within single digits of Lincoln for the first time after previously stalling at a gap of 12 points. Pay close attention to that “Other” number, which presumably are the votes that tea-flavored Democrat D.C. Morrison is targeting. If no one wins 50% on May 18th, this sucker is going nuclear to a runoff on June 8th. In that event, this could be a race where time may be on Halter’s side.
And for the general election match-ups:
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)
John Boozman (R): 52 (50)
Undecided: 6 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (41)
Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (48)
Undecided: 13 (11)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (42)
Kim Hendren (R): 50 (49)
Undecided: 10 (9)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)
Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (46)
Undecided: 12 (11)Bill Halter (D): 42 (41)
John Boozman (R): 47 (48)
Undecided: 11 (11)Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)
Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (45)
Undecided: 13 (12)Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)
Kim Hendren (R): 45 (46)
Undecided: 12 (11)Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)
Curtis Coleman (R): 41 (43)
Undecided: 16 (13)
(MoE: ±4%)
Rasmussen also has some numbers that, while not looking anything quite like this, at least corroborate the idea that Halter is less of a general election liability than Lincoln.
This sucker’s electrical!
…their numbers are “not looking anything quite like” another pollster’s numbers.
Rasmussen has become the perpetual outlier in all polls.
by Boozman’s weakness in the past few AR polls (polling high 40’s). I kind of expected him to put this race away as soon as he got in, but I guess he really doesn’t have much of a statewide base as a Rep.
Bubba taught this boy well. Out of all the Democratic candidates this cycle (from either the corporate or progressive side of things), I think that Halter knows how to play the “game” better than anyone else. Every one of his ads has been a home run, he has refused to back down on any of his principled, and overall he has successfully tied Lincoln to everything that is wrong with Washington, not just to progressive Democrats (who already knew that anyway), but also to moderates and Independents. He comes off as strong, articulate, and he destroyed Blanche in the debate.
Basically, he’s basically the image of what a Democratic candidate should be. He’s uncompromising, but also very in tune with the interests of his state and the voters that will put him in office. If every one of our candidates was as shrewed as Halter, the Republican Party would be a thing of the past.
by Boozman’s weakness in the past few AR polls (polling high 40’s). I kind of expected him to put this race away as soon as he got in, but I guess he really doesn’t have much of a statewide base as a Rep.
The Reps are gaining ground against Lincoln and losing ground against Halter. That should tell us who’s the stronger candidate.