Public Policy Polling (4/23-25, Republican voters):
John McCain (R): 46
J.D. Hayworth (R): 35
Jim Deakin (R): 7
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±5%)
McCain isn’t in hot shape here, sporting a 44-45 approval rating among primary voters, and losing conservatives to Hayworth by a 46-38 margin. However, the big reason why McCain is in charge, it seems, is that Hayworth is having trouble extending his appeal beyond the righter-than-right clump of the party, attracting a terrible 13-59 approval rating from moderates.
Also, the Behavior Research Center released their general election numbers of this race today, finding McCain up by 46-24 over Democrat Rodney Glassman, and Hayworth ahead of Glassman by 37-30. (Keep in mind the usual caveat with BRC polls, namely that it was conducted over an unusually long two-week period.)
I know senate races usually all lean one way in the end but the anti-incumbency environment could end up so toxic for both parties I could easily see something where the GOP picked up 6-7 seats while the Dems take 3-4. AZ and FL make this particularly pertinent I think.