Hope your Sorta-Super Tuesday is going better than Blanche Lincoln‘s: she was turned away from her standard casting-a-ballot-at-her-home-polling-place photo-op because she’d requested an absentee ballot at her Virginia home. She hadn’t filled out the absentee ballot, so she was left to fill out a provisional ballot instead.

So, what do you think is going to happen today? Can Joe Sestak preserve his last-minute surge against Arlen Specter, or can the Pennsylvania Democratic machine turn out the votes to save Specter? Can Blanche Lincoln clear the 50% bar to avoid a runoff, or will she have to go mano-a-mano against Bill Halter again? Does Jack Conway have enough last-minute momentum to win by a nose against Dan Mongiardo? What’s going to happen in the special election in PA-12, where polls show a dead heat? Let us know in the comments! No babka at stake today… just fighting for honor!

On top of all that, there’s the Kentucky GOP primary, gubernatorial primaries in Oregon and Pennsylvania, and a dump-truck load of primaries in House races everywhere. Check out our epic-length election preview to get your bearings on all these races.

**UPDATE** (James): Also, if you’ve got any results links for any of the races tonight, please post ’em in the comments! Thanks!

Shame. Anyway, long night methinks.

Lincoln 50-45-5

Sestak 51-49

Mongiardo 51-49

Burns 51-49

AR-SEN

Lincoln 46%

Halter 45%

Morrison 9%

KY-SEN

Mongiardo 45%

Conway 55%

PA-SEN

Specter 48%

Sestak 52%

PA-12 SPECIAL

Burns 49%

Critz 50%

AR-Sen (D) –

Lincoln – 53%

Halter – 40%

Others – 7%

PA-Sen (D) –

Sestak – 51%

Specter – 48%

PA-6

Pike – 56%

Trivedi – 43%

PA-12

Critz – 50%

Burns – 49%

KY-Sen (R)

Paul – 58%

Grayson – 40%

KY-Sen (D)

Mongiardo – 51%

Conway – 47%

HI-1

Djou – 37%

Hanabusa – 32%

Case – 25%

Others – 6%

Lincoln 49%

Halter 41%

Mongiardo 53%

Conway 47%

Sestak 52%

Specter 48%

Critz 53%

Burns 47%

Paul 58%

Grayson 42%

Boozman 51%

Others 49%

Kitzhauber 60%

Bradbury 40%

Dudley 45%

Allen 32%

others

We should start a pro-Babka writers strike on SSP.

Lincoln 49-45-6

Sestak 53-47

Mongiardo 54-46

Burns 51-49

Not at all how I’d like it to turn out. But that’s what I’ll go with.

AR-Sen:

Lincoln 51

Halter 44

Boozman 55

KY-Sen:

(D)

Conway 50

Modogorno 48

(R)

Paul 58

Grayson 41

PA-12

Critz 50

Burns 49

PA-Sen:

Sestak 52

Specter 46

OR-Gov

(D)

Kitzhaber 60

Bradbury 30

(R)

Alley 40

Dudley 30

but here goes….

Sestak: 53%

Specter: 47%

The rain in Philly and the incumbent rule combine to give Sestak a slightly larger than expected victory.

Onorato: 48%

Williams: 19%

Hoeffel: 19%

Wagner: 14%

Onorato wins by a wide margin, winning nearly 50 percent of the vote. The rest is split among the other candidates.

Critz: 51%

Burns: 49%

This one’s gonna come down to the wire, but I think the surge in Dem turnout for the Senate primary will drag Critz over the line.

Conway: 49%

Mongiardo: 48%

Others: 3%

Conway’s late surge enables him to narrowly beat Mongiardo with less than 50 percent of the vote

Paul: 57%

Grayson: 40%

Others: 3%

No surprises here. Rand Paul wins by a wide margin

Lincoln: 48%

Halter: 44%

Morrison: 8%

Lincoln is forced into a runoff against Halter

Boozman: 49%

Baker: 19%

Holt: 14%

Others: 18%

Boozman is narrowly forced into a runoff against Baker, who I think will benefit in the primary by not being from NW Arkansas.

Very tough races to call.

Lincoln 49%

Halter 42%

Nutjob 9%

Sestak 52%

Specter 48%

Critz 51%

Burns 49%

Mongiardo 53%

Conway 47%

Pike to win in PA-6. Causey in AR-1. And Wills in AR-2.

PA Special: Critz 51, Burns 49

PA-Sen(D): Sestak 52, Specter 48

AR-Sen(D): Lincoln 50, Halter 46

AR-Sen(R): Boozman 54, Baker 24, Holt 14

KY-Sen(D): Conway 48, Mongiardo 46

KY-Sen(R): Paul 59, Grayson 37

Good thing I have the hope.

I think Sestak wins Conway goes to a recount and eeks it out, and Halter keeps blanche under 50% forcing a runoff.

PA

Sestak 52%

Specter 48%

Critz wins by 51 to 49

KY

Conway 49%

Mongiardo 49%

AR

Halter 45%

Blanche 49%

Here goes

PA-Sen: I have a feeling this won’t be close.

Sestak: 56%

Spector: 44%

AR-Sen: It looks like Halter’s momentium has slowed and Democrats in Arkansas tend to be more conservative. So I’m tempted to say Lincoln will get over 50%. But I don’t think I should underestimate the anti-establishment feeling out there so.

Lincoln: 48%

Halter: 43%

Morrison:9%

KY-Sen: It seems like Conway has been surging. But again you do have a somewhat more conservative Democratic electorate. So I’m going to say

Monigrado: 52%

Conway: 48%

PA-12 special election: It seemed like a month ago this was a goner for Democrats. However it seems that as of late it’s moved back into toss-up category. And Critz does have a contested primary to help get him over the finish line. But I think that Burns will pull it off (I hope I’m wrong here).

Burns:51%

Critz:49%

NOTE: The PA races are from what I’ve seen in both the polls and from talking to people on the ground. The others? Optimistic.

PA-Sen:

Specter: 50%

Sestak: 49%

(This causes Republicans to jump for joy, but Specter ends up rebounding and wins in the Fall)

PA-12:

Critz: 48%

Burns: 46%

(In fact, Burns may not even win his primary. People are starting to turn on him down there)

AR-Sen:

Lincoln: 49%

Halter: 40%

(JUST enough so Lincoln has to go into a Run-Off. Lincoln wins the run-off anyway)

AR-Sen (R):

Boozeman: 49%

(Too many candidates in the race. Even Boozeman thinks he’s going into a run-off)

KY-Sen (D):

Conway: 49.8%

Mongiardo: 49.2%

(We’re going to be waiting to really know the results of this one)

KY-Sen (R):

Paul: 54%

Grayson: 46%

(This is one of two seats the Dems will pick up)

HI-01:

Hanabusa: 37%

Djou: 36%

Case: 20%

(Probably highly optimistic, but I don’t see Case picking up a whole lot of support anymore. I don’t know anyone who’s done less for his political career. I think Hanabusa picks up enough support right at the end, Djou is left scratching his head)

Side note on the HI-01 race. Is there also a primary for the election in November? Are Case and Hanabusa battling for that, too?

PA-Gov:

Onorato: 35%

Hoeffel: 18%

Wagner: 13%

Williams: 9%

(In what I think is the tragedy of Pennsylvania, Onorato, who I personally think is the second-weakest of the candidates (next to Williams) goes into the general election against a well funded Corbett.)

Kentucky Dems

Conway: 53%

Mongiardo: 47%

Kentucky Reps

Paul: 58%

Grayson: 42% (cue McConnell crying :D)

Pennsylvania Senate

Sestak: 51%

Specter: 49%

PA-12 (Special)

Critz: 50.5%

Burns: 49.5%

Arkansas Dems

Lincoln 47%

Halter 42%

Morrison: 11% (run-off)

Arkansas Reps

Boozman: 42%

Baker: 24%

Hendren: 19%

Holt: 15% (run-off between Boozman and Baker)

Sestak 52%, Specter 47%

Lincoln 49%, Halter 46%

Boozman 53%, rest 47%

Conway 51%, Mongiardo 49%

Paul 59%, Grayson 40%

Critz 50%, Burns 49%

Should be an interesting night.

PA Sen

Sestak 53 Specter 46

PA 12

Critz 50.1 Burns 49.9

KY Sen D

Mongiardo 48, Conway 45 Others 7

KY Sen R

Paul 55, Grayson 40 Others 5

AR Sen D

Lincoln 49 Halter 44, Others 7

AR Sen R

Boozman 53, Others 47

AK-Sen:

Lincoln 48

Halter 45

PN-Sen:

Sestak 51

Specter 47

KY-Sen:

Conway 50

Mongiardo 48

PN-12:

Critz 51

Burns 49

AR-Sen:

D: Lincoln 49, Halter 43, Morrison 8.

R: Boozman 47, Baker 24, Holt 21, Others 8

HI-01: Djou 43, Hanabusa 39, Case 18

Wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers for Djou and Hanabusa are reversed. Either way, I predict that the DCCC’s mainland meddling in favor of a widely disliked conservative white guy will blow up in their faces here.

KY-Sen:

D: Mongiardo 52, Conway 48. (Please tell me it’s the other way around, as Mongiardo will cost us the seat. Again.)

R: Paul 72, Grayson 28, Cornyn 0. (HA-ha!)

OR-Gov:

D: Kitzhaber 57, Bradbury 41, Other 2.

R: Alley 51, Dudley 46, Other 3.

OR-05:

Bruun 50, Thompson 47, Other 3

(Others here are write-ins. Speaking from personal experience as a former OR resident, vote-by-mail creates more write-ins than normal because people filling out a ballot at home are more relaxed than standing in line in a high school gym.)

PA-Sen: Sestak 51, Specter 49.

PA-04: Don’t care about the numbers, but Buchanan is toast. A fitting end to a horrible woman’s political career. (Unfortunately, in a year as anti-incumbent as this one, Rothfus is just the sort of nut who can knock off Altmire. I’d be crying harder if Altmire weren’t one of the most obnoxious Blue Dogs in the chamber.)

PA-06: Pike 57 Trivedi 41. And Gerlach survives AGAIN.

PA-11: O’Brien 54, Kanjorski 46. (After the upset in WV-01, Kanjorski’s loss would be unprecedented, but it seems like this is the rare year where the most entrenched incumbents lose first – the crustier the better.)

PA-12: General: Critz 52, Burns 48.

R Primary: Critz 51, Russell 49.

PA-17: Holden 63, Dow-Ford 37. Will be similar to the results in NC-08 and NC-11 – closer than it should be because of HCR, but not really all that close.

PA-19: Platts 57, Smeltzer 43.

AR-Sen D- Goes to the runnoff

Lincoln 46%

Halter 43%

Morrison 10%

AR-Sen R No runnoff

Boozeman 55%

Others 45%

KY-Sen Battle of the why did we nominate this guy

Mongiardo 52%

Conway 47%

Paul 56%

Grayson 42%

PA- Sen Specter wins after long recount!

Specer 50%

Sestak 50%

PA-12

Burns 52%

Critz 47%

OR Gov-

Dudley finally hits a free throw and wins GOP primary

HI-1

Djou 45%

Case 28%

Hanabusa 25%

CT-Sen Blumenthal has a press conference with his wife Morgan Fairchild by his side and tries to end the controvery by showing us the Silver Star and Purple Heart he bought on e-bay.

AR-Sen:

Blanche Lincoln – 50%

Bill Halter – 42%

D.C. Morrison – 8%

KY-Sen (D):

Dan Mongiardo – 50%

Jack Conway – 46%

KY-Sen (R):

Rand Paul – 56%

Trey Grayson – 42%

PA-Sen:

Arlen Specter – 51%

Joe Sestak – 49%

PA-16:

Tim Burns – 52%

Mark Critz – 48%

Politico have been fastest so far.

http://www.politico.com/2010/m…

AR-Sen

Lincoln 55

Halter 38

PA-Sen

Sestek 52

Spencer 48

PA-12

Burns 53

Critz 47

KY-sen (R)

Paul 60

Grayson 39

KY-sen (D)

Mongiardo 52

Conway 47

But I’m going to predict that Sestak wins, Lincoln leads but faces a runoff, Mongiardo wins, and Burns wins. I hope I’m wrong about some of these.

Mostly on Sec of State website. Not sure if they’ll post faster than AP or not.

Main page: http://www.votenaturally.org/e…

By race: http://www.votenaturally.org/e…

Senate Dem: http://www.votenaturally.org/e…

Senate Rep: http://www.votenaturally.org/e…

Another Senate Dem: http://www.4029tv.com/election…

I acknowledge a Republican pickup here but want to make sure its only a six month pickup. I want to see how Djou final percentage looks. If he is at the high thirties or just at 40 then I am confident of the six months and done. If he gets up to the mid to high forties then with incumbency, we may be in for a bad time regaining the seat. I also want to see which Democrat wins the primary to mano a mano Djou. I am hoping it is not Case but have a feeling it may just be.

But the DCCC is VERY bullish about PA-12… almost to the point of bragging. I hope they don’t jinx it.

Djou with around 40% while those other two saps (Democrats) split it 25% each. But I’m just wondering, when Djou wins, is this seat automatically going to go back to Democrats come November? I mean, that’s what you’ve been saying about Joseph Cao for two years now.

Lincoln 48

Halter 43

Morrison 9

Boozman 47

Holt 26

Baker 16

Hendren 6

Other 5

Djou 39

Case 35

Hanabusa 26

Conway 45.5

Mongiardo 44.5

Other 10

Paul 48

Conway 44

Other 8

Specter 53

Sestak 47

Onorato 38

Wagner 24

Williams 23

Hoeffel 15

Critz (D) 51

Burns (R) 49

http://swingstateproject.com/s…

Why change now?

Sestak-53%

Specter-46%

Other-1%

Onorato-45%

Wagner-12%

Williams-10%

Hoeffel-8%

Other-15%

Lincoln-46%

Halter-43%

Morrison-11%

Boozman- 54%

Holt- 20%

Baker-17%

Other-9%

Paul-55%

Grayson- 39%

Other-6%

Conway- 46%

Mongiardo- 42%

Other-12%

Kitzhaber- 63%

Bradbury-37%

Dudley- 45%

Alley- 32%

Other-23%

Burns-51%

Critz-49%

PA-Sen–Ironically, it’s Sestak who finishes the job Pat Toomey started 6 years ago.

Sestak 53

Specter 47

AR-Sen–Halter never quite got it off the ground. And Boozman just isn’t that good a candidate

Lincoln 51

Halter 44

Morrison 5

Boozman 46

Holt 26

Others 28

KY-Sen–They love their close elections in the Bluegrass state

Mongiardo 49.5

Conway 40.0

Paul 54

Grayson 44

PA-12–Pure tossup

Burns 50.5

Critz 49.5

HI-01–Hanabusa finishes second, Case’s career over

Djou 42

Hanabusa 34

Case 21

KY-Sen R

Rand Paul 59%

Trey Grayson 41%

KY- Sen D

Conway 51%

Mongi. 49%

Ark-Sen D

Lincoln 50%

Halter 40%

Others 10%

Ark-Sen R

Boozman 51%

Others 49%

PA-Sen D

Sestak 52%

Specter 48%

PA-12 (tough one)

Critz 48

Burns 52

(hope I’m wrong on that one)

AR-SEN

Lincoln 51%

Halter 43%

Morrison 6%

KY-SEN

Mongiardo 48%

Conway 52%

PA-SEN

Specter 46%

Sestak 54%

I will note that Specter seemed on his game on CNBC today (too little, too late) – esepecially in saying that he would campaign for Sestak if Sestak won – even when Sestak claimed he wouldn’t campaign for Specter – and making it clear that this was about beating Toomey.

PA-12 SPECIAL

Burns 48%

Critz 49%

Paul kills Greyson

I think the bright spots will be in Pennsylvania with Sestak and Critz victory. Sadly I predict Lincoln winning well above the 50 she needs and very sadly Dr. Dan pulling out a squeaker over Conway.

Sestak- 51%

Specter-49%

Lincoln- 55%

Halter-40%

Dude from the right (!) of Lincoln- 5%

Dr. Dan-47%

Conway- 45%

Others- 8%

Critz- 52%

Burns- 48%

Oregon

The ex Treasurer candidate beats the washed up bball playa. The ex Governor beats the ex SoS.

Louisville Mayor

Fischer pulling a narrow victory over King. Gosh I hope I’m right. See my diary for further info on this race if interested.

Sestak 52

Specter 48

Lincoln 49

Halter 43

Capt. Cuckoo Bananas 8

Paul 61

Grayson 39

Mongiardo 53

Conway 47

Burns 53

Critz 47

Djou, Kitzhaber, Onarato, Buchana, Critz (primary), Burns (primary) all pull it out

Paul 62%

Grayson 34%

Conway 53%

Mongiardo 44%

Lincoln 49%

Halter 43%

Specter 52%

Sestak 48%

Critz 54%

Burns 46% (I think Burns will win the GOP primary)

Onorato 43% (Winner)

Everyone else 57%

Corbett (a lot)

Everyone else (a little)

Lincoln 49/45-6

Conway 51-49

Paul 57-43

Specter 52-48

Critz 50.5-49.5