StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – May Ratings Update

StephenCLE’s 2010 House Predictions – May Ratings Update!

Hello my dear SSPers, and welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions.  You are locked on to my third monthly installment, this being the Ratings Update for the month of May.  

What has happened in the last 30 days?  Well first off, we had a massive flood in Tennessee, a huge oil spill in the Gulf south of Louisiana, tornadoes in Oklahoma, etc.  It was a very bad month for natural disasters.  On top of that, we had a major stock market dump about a week ago thanks to the debt crisis in Greece and several other European nations.  These events are probably only serving to heighten the anger directed toward Washington.  On the other hand, we had a very positive jobs report in April, and the economy is showing major signs of turning around.  Polls are showing democrats fairing better for the most part, most notably in the Senate races, but we’ve seen some fairly distressing House polls as well.

My feeling overall is that the field has improved marginally for the GOP over the past 30 days.  A lot of attention right now is on the two upcoming special elections in democratic districts.  In Hawaii-1, Charles Djou is heading toward a victory against Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa, who are dividing the Democratic vote.  In Pennsylvania-12, republican Tim Burns and democrat Mark Critz are locked in a tight battle.  I feel that Critz will pull out a close win there.  Since I am operating under the assumption of wins by Critz and Djou, the current congress numbers have been adjusted to 256 democrats and 179 republicans, and those two are listed as incumbents on the big board.  Obviously, if HI-1 stays blue, or if PA-12 goes red, then that will change the math as well as the rating on those seats for November.

So without further ado, here we go!

May Ratings Changes:

1.Arizona-8 – Likely D to Lean D – It appears that the Arizona GOP has really gone hammer and tongs after Gabrielle Giffords, and indeed several challengers put up good fundraising last quarter, most notably Paton, who raised over 500k.  Giffords is popular, and has a huge war chest, but I could see the newly passed immigration law causing trouble for her since her district lies on the border.  

2.California-18 – Solid D to Likely D – I have begun tracking this race primarily because of the incumbent’s relatively poor financial situation in a district that only leans democrat.  

3.Nevada-1 – Likely D to Solid D – With the recent implosion of Sue Lowden, I think it’s unlikely that the republican candidates up-ballot will run close enough in NV-1 to put Shelley Berkley in danger.  Safe.

4.Oregon-5 – Likely D to Lean D – This swing district could be a bigger problem than anticipated, even though Oregon is moving left.

5.Illinois-8 – Likely D to Solid D – With the implosion of Joe Walsh’s campaign, Melissa Bean’s road just got a lot easier.  Safe.

6.Wisconsin-7 – Likely D to Toss Up – This one caught me off guard as I didn’t think we’d have any more retirements this late in the cycle.  Wrong.  This is a slightly democratic district, but with the environment it’s going to be a battle, especially since Sean Duffy has gotten out to a strong start on the R side.  The good news is that the Dems seem to be coalescing around a strong candidate, state senator Julie Lassa.

7.Mississippi-4 – Likely D to Lean D – Sound the alarm bells, from Biloxi to Hattiesburg.  If Gene Taylor doesn’t get his butt moving fundraising and on the campaign trail soon, he won’t be around much longer.  It’s not a good year for long running incumbents, and it’s an even worse year for democrats in the rural south.  That’s two strikes.  Not running a full-out campaign and not fundraising would be strike three.  And comparing the oil spilling in the Gulf to “chocolate milk”?!  Really?!

8.Texas-23 – Likely D to Lean D – The Republicans did the smart thing here, and actually elected a Hispanic to go up against Ciro Rodriguez in this marginally republican district (but one that did go for Obama).  It remains to be seen how well Quico Canseco can campaign in the general, but this one definitely bears watching now.

9.Texas-27 – Likely D to Solid D – The GOP missed an opportunity here, not really finding anybody of substance to take on Ortiz in what could have been a toss-up district according to the PVI.  Safe.

10.Ohio-13 – Likely D to Lean D – As OH-13 is my home district, so it is with a heavy heart that I downgrade it to Lean D.  See, this race is weird, because Betty Sutton is well liked, and the district is strongly democratic.  But, challenger Tom Ganley is sitting on the biggest warchest of any republican, incumbent or challenger, this cycle.  He actually is beating Sutton 6-to-1 in cash on hand.  If Sutton doesn’t start fundraising better, Ganley could attempt to EMeg his way to a victory.

11.Georgia-2 – Likely D to Lean D – I’m starting to get really concerned here too.  My concern here is that because of Bishop’s conservatism, that base democrats in this district may not turn out in big numbers to support him.  The upcoming primary here should tell us a lot.  Besides that, this district is barely democratic, and Bishop isn’t sitting on much cash.  Can’t believe Charlie Cook still has this one at Solid D, one of the few races in which I lean further right than he does.

12.North Carolina-8 – Likely D to Lean D – Larry Kissell did not have a good quarter fundraising, and he had a very lackluster primary win.  Those are troubling signs, but luckily his competition isn’t the greatest.  Still, without the cash, Kissell may struggle.

13.Ohio-18 – Lean D to Likely D – I’ve never really gotten the feeling that Zack Space is vulnerable, and I think going against HCR the 2nd go round was smart on his part as the district is conservative in nature.  Even better, the Republican primary is going to a recount, which is undoubtedly going to leave the victor banged and bruised.  Plus, neither GOPer has much cash while Space is killing it in fundraising.

14.New York-4 – Likely D to Safe D – I don’t even remember why I was tracking this race.  Safe.

15.Wisconsin-3 – Safe D to Likely D – With long running incumbents not faring well in early primary returns, and with the general discontent still running high, I have to put Ron Kind’s district in play, even though I don’t think there’s a great chance of a takeover here.

16.Missouri-3 – Safe D to Likely D – Russ Carnahan has drawn a moneybags republican challenger, so it’s possible that this race could draw some attention even though MO-3 is very democratic in nature.  

17.Connecticut-5 – Lean D to Likely D – This race was pretty much all predicated on coattails and the GOP coalescing around somebody strong.  Neither has happened.  Murphy is sitting on a nice cash advantage too.

18.Hawaii-1 – Lean D to Toss Up – I’m now going on the assumption that Charles Djou will win the special election for this seat next week, meaning that he will go up against the winner of the inevitable Dem primary battle between Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa in November.  In this environment, and with Hawaii’s usual liking of incumbents, Djou has a shot to survive, which is why I move the race to Toss Up.

19.Florida-8 – Toss Up to Lean D – With his gobs and gobs of money and with very weak-sauce competition, I just don’t think Alan Grayson is all that vulnerable.  I feel confident enough to move this race to lean despite the fact that Bill McCollum might bring some R coattails in the Orlando area.  Unless if Rubio and McCollum are winning big, Grayson will be fine.  He hasn’t made any headlines with his mouth lately either, which helps.

20.Michigan-9 – Lean D to Likely D – Gary Peters isn’t really a prominent target for the R’s now that they don’t have a strong candidate and that MI-1 has opened up.  I don’t think the NRCC will be making this a priority, which makes Peters’s strong financial situation decisive.

21.New York-23 – Toss Up to Lean D – It looks like intraparty warfare is coming to NY-23 once again, as favorite Doug Hoffman is trailing Matt Doheny in the money race and both are throwing barbs at each other already.  That’s good news for Bill Owens, who rode the Hoffman-Scozzafava war into office last time.

22.Florida-2 – Lean D to Toss Up – This is one district that I am really, really concerned about, and have been for months.  Alan Boyd, probably due to his yes on HCR vote, is showing up more than 10 points down in republican internal polls.  While those are probably outliers, this is a district in which Obama underperformed Kerry, and it’s moving away from Team Blue.  I’m anxiously waiting to see how the Governor and Senate races here turn out, because that will go a long way in deciding whether Boyd survives or not.

23.West Virginia-1 – Lean D to Likely R – With incumbent Alan Mollohan losing the democratic primary to Oliverio, I think it’s pretty much a goner, and that McKinley will take it for the republicans.  R+9 open seats in areas in which Obama cratered two years ago are just about the worst case scenario for democrats to defend.  WV-1’s dem electorate really screwed this one up.

24.California-45 – Likely R to Lean R – Mary Bono Mack, I feel is going to experience a bit of a turnout problem because of her vote for Cap-N-Trade, particularly if moderate Tom Campbell is nominated for the Senate race.  That, coupled with Steve Pougnet’s strong fundraising, has made this one the race to watch in southern California.

25.Arizona-3 – Lean R to Likely R – With the new immigration law kicking in, I feel that Republicans across the state are getting a bit of a boost, and that prompts this rating change.  Which is not Hulburd couldn’t steal this one, but he has lost the money advantage too, at least against some of the potential R candidates.

26.New Hampshire-2 – Toss Up to Lean R – What a mess.  I never would’ve expected that a D+3 seat in the northeast would be one of Team Blue’s biggest headaches this cycle, but here it is.  Polls are showing Charlie Bass running far ahead of Katrina Swett, one of the presumptive democratic candidates.  Ann McLane Kuster could win the D nomination instead, but Swett has a huge money lead, both on Kuster and Bass.  If the polls are true, the red wave will be really, really amplified in NH because seeing Swett down 15 points last month was a shock to me.

27.Michigan-11 – Likely R to Solid R – What a huge disappointment, again.  Why is it that Team Blue can never seem to get anybody to run here?  Maybe they are hedging that this is the seat that will get cut out in redistricting, but in either case, Thad McCotter looks like he’s in good shape for another term, which is hugely disappointing seeing as he was one of the top 10 most vulnerable R’s at this time last year.

28.Minnesota-3 – Likely R to Solid R – Ditto for Eric Paulsen, who looks good for another term.  Team Blue really screwed up by nominating the wrong candidate in 2008, and it looks like the DFL hasn’t recovered, as their recruitment has gone seriously awry.

29.New Jersey-7 – Likely R to Solid R – By pushing a moderate profile, and with a poor recruiting cycle for the democrats here, it looks like Leonard Lance is locked in for another term.  Shame, because there’s nothing worse than a arch-conservative masquerading as a moderate and getting away with it.

30.Florida-10 – Likely R to Solid R – This was another seat that looked oh so good 12 months ago.  But with Bill Young hanging in, and Charlie Justice barely able to outraise Roland Burris, it looks like Young isn’t going anywhere fast.

31.Kansas-2 – Likely R to Solid R – I had moved this seat previously on the hope that moderate v conservative warfare would break out and possibly take out Lynn Jenkins in the primary.  But it doesn’t appear that will happen, so I’m putting this seat back into safe territory.  I still wonder where this race would be if Laura Kelly was in it.  Maybe Lean R at worst?

32.South Carolina-2 – Lean R to Likely R – Ultimately, I don’t see a pickup here as all that likely, although Joe Wilson will have to deal with a lot of ads showing his gaffe over and over again.  Team Blue picking up R+10 seats in the south, this year?  Really?

33.Florida-12 – Lean R to Likely R – With Lori Edwards struggling on the fundraising front, I move this seat in the republican direction.  

34.Ohio-2 – Likely R to Solid R – With David Krikorian getting beat in the D primary by Surya Yalamanchili, it appears that Mean Jean is set.  She actually cleared 60% in the primary, which is amazing for her.  Really, OH-2 is probably the most racist district in my home state, aside from possibly OH-6, and people there aren’t going for a non-white Dem candidate, especially one whose name that they can’t pronounce.  Sorry, but that’s the cold hard truth.

May Pickup Changes:

Four seats changed in their final color this month.  Hawaii-1, which again is now a red district, I believe will go blue once again in November, bringing the number of democratic pickups to 6.  Three districts went from blue to red this month.  The first of those is Florida-2, where I think Alan Boyd will be defeated, mostly a result of his HCR vote.  West Virginia-1, which is now an open seat due to Mollohan going down in the primary, will flip from blue to red as well.  The third seat is New Hampshire-2, which is now a republican pickup mostly due to the recent polling data I’ve seen.

Final Statistics:

Current Congress – 256 democrats, 179 republicans

Projected New Congress – 233 democrats, 202 republicans

National Swing – Republicans +23

Democratic Pickups – HI-1, CA-3, IL-10, LA-2, PA-6, DE-1

Republican Pickups – CO-4, NV-3, ID-1, WA-3, ND-1, IA-3, KS-3, AR-2, LA-3, AL-2, MS-1, TX-17, MI-1, MI-7, IN-8, OH-1, FL-2, VA-2, VA-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, WV-1, MD-1, PA-11, NH-1, NH-2, NY-24, NY-29

2010 House Big Board (as of May update)

Solid Dem – 161 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, AR-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-20, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-12, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-12, IL-17, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, KS-1, KS-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NM-3, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-2, NC-4, NC-7, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 30 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-36 (Harman)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-1 (Pingree)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-7 (Peterson)

Missouri-3 (Carnahan)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-4 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Rhode Island-1 (Open)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 26 seats:

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up – 38 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Florida-25 (Open)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-19 (Hall)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 11 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 18 seats:

Alabama-5 (Griffith)

Alaska-1 (Young)

Arizona-3 (Open)

California-19 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-48 (Campbell)

Florida-12 (Open)

Illinois-13 (Biggert)

Indiana-3 (Souder)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Tennessee-6 (Open)

Texas-32 (Sessions)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Solid Rep – 151 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1