Suffolk University (6/1-2, likely voters, no trend lines):
Sharron Angle (R): 33
Danny Tarkanian (R): 26
Sue Lowden (R): 25
Undecided: 7
Other: 10
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/31-6/2, likely voters, 4/26-28 in parens):
Sharon Angle (R): 34 (13)
Sue Lowden (R): 25 (38)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 24 (28)
Undecided: 5 (9)
Other: 12 (12)
(MoE: ±5%)
Wow — Sharron Angle appears to be packing her Dirty Harry Hand Cannon and aroma-therapeutic massage oils all the way to a remarkable victory, if these polls are to be believed. Recall that Angle, a wild-eyed Club for Growth-backed whacko, was last seen washing out of the primary race to replace now-Gov. Jim Gibbons in the 2nd Congressional District back in 2006. Let’s just hope that Danny Tarkanian doesn’t somehow sneak through as Lowden and Angle continue to go nuclear on each other in the closing days.
Meanwhile, Sue Lowden has been scrambling to defend a burial fee for that she proposed for non-combat veterans. In a hastily-arranged press conference, Lowden repeatedly defended the tax, and even trotted out a veteran to say that the fee was okay. Uh, is this really the sort of thing that any politician wants to spend time defending? Man, I’ll almost be sorry to see her lose.
R2K also took a look at the general election, and found some of the rosiest numbers yet for Harry Reid — though that’s not really saying much:
Harry Reid (D): 43 (41)
Sharon Angle (R): 37 (44)
Scott Ashjian (TP): 2 (5)
None: 7 (2)
Other: 3 (2)
Undecided: 8 (6)Harry Reid (D): 42 (41)
Sue Lowden (R): 38 (45)
Scott Ashjian (T): 2 (4)
None: 7 (2)
Other: 3 (2)
Undecided: 8 (6)Harry Reid (D): 43 (41)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 39 (43)
Scott Ashjian (TP): 2 (6)
None: 6 (2)
Other: 3 (2)
Undecided: 7 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)
I’ll believe that Harry Reid is beating his Republican opponents once I see several more corroborative polls, but it can’t be denied that these clowns are actually giving Harry Reid a shot at survival.
And, finally, that darned gubernatorial race (no trend lines):
Rory Reid (D): 52
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 31
Other: 8
Undecided: 9Rory Reid (D): 41
Brian Sandoval (R): 51
Other: 5
Undecided: 3Rory Reid (D): 43
Mike Montandon (R): 40
Other: 7
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)
The good news is that Rory Reid can beat somebody: namely, Jim Gibbons or maybe, possibly, if he’s lucky, Mike Montandon. The bad news is that there’s little chance of either such match-up happening. Ex-AG Brian Sandoval beats Gibbons by 48-27 in the GOP primary (with Montandon at 6) according to R2K, and Suffolk pegs the race at a nearly identical 47-25.
burying veterans.
I still don’t think Harry has a chance, but. . .
It’s encouraging to see the None vote up to 7%. If Reid runs a sufficiently aggressive negative campaign the combined None/Ashijan/Other vote might reach 15%- I doubt Reid can win with anything less. Something like 43% Reid-42% Angle seems to be the best case here.
post-primary? (Is she willing to work with handlers to do so?)
Assuming she gets the R nomination, and is able to moderate her image, I think she beats Reid.
I predicted Reid would be facing Angle. This is a year where crazy is in for Republicans. Surprised it took Angle this long to start rising to the top.
None of the Republicans end up pulling in more than 75% of Republican support in the general election match ups versus Reid. In contrast, Reid always gets at least 78% of Democratic support. Overall, it a small difference, but I think it is a little fishy that 1 in 4 Nevada Republicans will vote for a non-Republican candidate on election day.
As usual the voter registration demographics are off, but this time they are way off. R2K has independents making up 17% of the electorate. In 2008, Indies made up 32% of the electorate, and in 2006, the more comparable cycle, they were 26% of the total voters. Independent voters are also split down the middle in all the general election samples, going around 35D-35R-30Undecided and other. This is despite Reid having a 34 Favorable – 59 Unfavorable rating with that voter group. I find it odd that roughly 40 percent of those Independent voters who view Reid unfavorably are undecided on who they will ultimately write down on their ballots.
Finally, the Democratic portion of the vote is 43% compared to 40% Republican in the Kos poll. In 2008, it was 38% Democratic and 30% Republican and in 2006, again the scenario bearing more of resemblance to the upcoming election, it was 40% Republican and 34% Democrat. Now Nevada has shifted faster towards the Democrats than most states during the 2000s, but I sincerely doubt the Democratic percentage of the vote will be higher than in 2008.
I reweighted with indies at 26%, Republicans at 37%, and Dems at 37% for the Angle v Reid scenario. This would only change it to a 41 Reid, 38 Angle from it being 43-37 with the current weights but that also assumes Reid splitting Indies evenly with Angle and only 72% of Republicans voting for Angle versus 79% of Democrats going for Reid. If Angle won Indies 40-35 versus Reid and received the same number of Republican as Reid was able to get from Democrats it goes to 42 Angle, 41 Reid with my turnout scenario. However, that is a lot of fudging for the poll.
Basically, I think that most of the splits that I pointed out in R2K poll do stick out a bit. I will withhold full judgment on this poll until I see more polling coming out from other non-Rasmussen firms.
has a blog post up calling Harry Reid a “World-Class Barterer”
http://www.suelowden.com/index…
And the last line of the blog entry:
I’m guessing Lowden believes that she struck gold with that remark…to bad it’s fools gold.