AR, ME, NJ, SC & SD Results Thread

10:19pm: It’s a moveable feast – join us in the new thread.

10:09pm: I think I forgot to mention that the AP called SD-Gov (R) for Dennis Daugaard a few minutes ago. He’ll take on Scott Heidepriem in November.

10:06pm: In AR-01, Chad Causey is a little bit behind where he needs to be from round one in order to beat Tim Wooldridge. In AR-02, Joyce Elliott trails slightly, but she’s actually out-performing her first-round share by a lot, suggesting she’ll take the win. See our model for more.

10:03pm: With 12% reporting in Maine, Paul LePage has a 34-17 lead over Les Otten on the R side, while it’s a very tight 31-30 for Libby Mitchell over Steve Rowe on the D side.

10:00pm: It’s ten o’clock – do you know where your polling place is? Well, it’s closed now if you live in IA, MT or NV.

9:52pm: Ayup – the AP calls a runoff between Haley and Barrett. Monster failures on the part of McMaster and Bauer.

9:45pm: We project that Nikki Haley will miss out on avoiding a runoff by about 5,000 votes. Meanwhile, in SC-04, Gowdy is down to 42%, but Inglis is at just 26%, and the AP has called it for a runoff between those two men.

9:44pm: That’s funny – AR-01, AR-02 and AR-03 are all 51-49 right now.

9:39pm: Compared to his round one showing, Halter is doing three points worse in the territory that’s already reported.

9:35pm: Hmm, so, things aren’t really looking so hot for Bill Halter so far. Lincoln’s up 53-47, but much of what’s reported is (narrowly) Halter country.

9:33pm: AP calls it for Jon Runyan in NJ-03 (R). His 56% looks pretty unimpressive, if you ask me.

9:31pm: It seems all but certain that the GOP primaries in SC-01 and SC-03 (both open seats) will go to runoffs. No one has more than 30% in either race.

9:23pm: While NJ-06 and NJ-12 are not high on anyone’s takeover lists, the establishment GOP picks in each race – Diane Gooch and Scott Sipprelle – are both trailing teabaggers, as nj1122 points out.

9:19pm: John Runyan, the establishment choice by a hundred yards in NJ-03, is only up 54-46 on Justin Murphy with about 38% in.

9:15pm: Back in SC-04, Trey Gowdy has 49.6% of the vote with 50% reporting. That rounds up to 50, of course, but he’ll actually need 50%+1 to clear the runoff hurdle.

9:13pm: In SD-AL, establishment fave Chris Nelson only has a narrow lead over Kristi Noem, 41-39 with 25% in.

9:12pm: With 19% of the vote in in SD-Gov (R), Dennis Daugaard has a huge 53-21 lead over Scott Munsterman. Daugaard is generally considered to be the more conservative contender.

9:11pm: Blanche Lincoln up 54-46 with about 2% reporting.

9:09pm: Oy. Let’s hope not.

9:07pm: Note that our model for Arkansas is being thrown off right now by the absentee votes. As more votes come in, it should start to make more sense.

9:03pm: Polls have also now closed in the western part of South Dakota (they closed in the east an hour ago).

9:00pm: The AP has called SC-Gov (D) for Sheheen, who wins the Dem nod without a runoff.

8:56pm: No results in from Maine yet, but we also have a model (more of a back-of-the-envelope projector) that aggregates results by county for ME-Gov.

8:51pm: Meanwhile, in SC-04, our model is predicting a runoff. Trey Gowdy has 44% and Rep. Bob Inglis has a truly feeble 26%. Even if Inglis survives to a runoff, he’ll be in extremely bad shape.

8:50pm: With a little over a third of the vote in, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen is pulling an impressive 58% in SC-Gov (D), while Jim Rex trails at 23 and Robert Ford is at 19. Sheheen might avoid a runoff here. On the GOP side, Nikki Haley is at 46 and Gresham Barrett at 26.

8:48pm: Looks like a handful of votes have shown up in Arkansas, but zero precincts are listed as reporting, so I’m guessing absentees and the like.

8:33pm: We have a bitchin’ model for the AR-Sen runoff, which you can check out here. We’ll keep it updated throughout the night so that you can see our latest projections.

Polls have now closed in Arkansas, and we’re still counting votes in ME, NJ & SC.

RESULTS:

157 thoughts on “AR, ME, NJ, SC & SD Results Thread”

  6. and I’m a modeler myself.

    Why can’t I read read, not edit the formulas? And why aren’t the results for Round 1 not already in there? I don’t understand what that all means.

    Also, why are you only listing 2 counties per CD? Are they representative/swing counties?

  13. I don’t know if absentee ballots skew towards Lincoln but he definitely seems to be under performing at the moment. He better win election day returns.  

  16. He has increased his support from the previous election in the county. Basically, he needs to hope that his election day returns in Pulaski are better than the early votes or it will already be over.

  19. He’s only ahead by 8 votes there with one precinct left; last time he won the county by 180 votes.  

  20. Tea partier Anna Little up 4,389 to 3,595 over establishment choice millionair Diane Gooch in NJ 12 with 83% of the Monmouth County, the little bit of vulnerability that Frank Pallone had appears to be disappearing with this result.

  21. I googled Green and this is what I found:

    http://www.free-times.com/inde…

    He sounds like as much some dude as they come. At least he is a veteran. That is good. The guy doesn’t have any website. He has a face book, but its his private account, not a campaign site. WTF? I wonder if his race contributed to his victory. He did not even go to the state convention.  

  22. These seem to be the only counties that have enough results that we can make a judgement. Anyone know how Halter performed in those?

  23. More likely to win than Rowe, and she just moved up to 1st, with a five vote lead.

    And I don’t remember hearing about this LePage person who’s whomping on the GOP side.

  24. Incumbent Converse Chellis is probably on his way out.  Losing by a 61-39 percent with 63 percent in.

  25. It’s 56%H – 44%L compared to 47H-44L-9M last time. Only 21/41 precincts for the county are in, however.

  28. with a 58H-42L final. I would note that he increased from the early vote totals, which were 54H-46L in the county. It also compares fairly equal to the last election, 47H-30L-24M. Of course Halter really needs to gain more Morrison votes than Lincoln.

  32. Halter was losing Craighead (Jonesboro) and Crittenden county (West Memphis) by 30-40 points in absentee ballots but is now behind by much less… this could end up being a real barn burner

  36. Now (May 18)

    Ouachita: 54-46 Lincoln (43-42 Halter)

    Grant: 53-47 Halter (43-32 Halter)

    Guys, not to be Tekzilla, but I think we need to emotionally prepare for a Lincoln victory. If this election doesn’t show the importance of ground game in a low-turnout affair, nothing does.

  37. ‘Bout the only thing good from Blanche hanging on is to put some of that “anti-incumbent voters blah, blah, blah” media narrative to rest. That’s about the only good thing I can see happening if Lincoln pulls it out.

  39. Despite all the controversy, the result was quite close a few weeks ago though.

  42. 4,438 for Spirrelle and 4,208 for Corsi in NJ 12 with all but 2 districts in for Monmouth and Mercer Counties but still over 200 remaining in Middlesex where one would have to believe Spirrelle would do well.

    With virtually all of Monmouth County in Little still maintains around a 9% or 800 vote lead.

    Repbulican Incumbent Leo Lance survives a bunch of tea-baggers in NJ 7 with around 55% of the vote so far.

  44. Marion County in the north is now fully in.

    Halter won 61-39 as compared to 51-38 on May 18.

    Things look bad for him, but if he can keep getting swings like that, he’s still in the game.

  45. But NJ results look really, really good for Dems so far.  Dems winning confortably in contested races, tea party candidates beating establishment choices, Runyan unimpressive.

    Reminds me of the PA primary a few weeks back, that night went very well for Dems IMHO.

  47. No, not tonight’s results, but why should I care so much?

    I’ve never seen so much liberal Democratic activist energy poured into deciding who gets to enjoy being strung up by John Boozman.

    I understand Halter consistently polls slightly better than Lincoln, but both trail by pretty big margins.  And it’s a conservative state in a good Republican year.

    I enjoy the entertainment of the AR-Sen primary as much as anyone, but man, so many people care so deeply about this, and isn’t it a bit misplaced?

    My apologies to anyone here who actually lives in Arkansas or otherwise has a personal connection there, as you folks obviously should care about tonight.  Just as I care about seeing what I can do for Jeff Barnett in VA-10 even though Frank Wolf is perfectly safe.

  52. Halter’s pulling even in the rest of the state. But those 5% of votes now in from Pulaski, plus its vote in the primary, make the prospects a tad gloomy.

  53. Teabaggers leads are shrinking, Little up 53-47 or about 650 votes with 64% of the vote in in NJ 6, but much of the vote is left in Middlesex county where Gooch is showing some early strength, should be very close.  Meanwhile in NJ 12 Spirrelle has pulled into the lead with 51.6% of the vote over teabagger Corsi with 70% of the vote in, looks like he’ll pull it out there with the unenviable task of taking on the vastly popular Rush Holt.

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