SurveyUSA for Denver Post (6/15-17, registered voters for general, likely voters for primary, no trendlines):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 53
Andrew Romanoff (D): 36
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.4%)Ken Buck (R): 53
Jane Norton (R): 37
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43
Ken Buck (R): 46
“Third Party”: 6
Undecided: 5Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44
Jane Norton (R): 47
“Third Party”: 5
Undecided: 4Andrew Romanoff (D): 40
Ken Buck (R): 49
“Third Party”: 6
Undecided: 5Andrew Romanoff (D): 41
Jane Norton (R): 45
“Third Party”: 8
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±2.6%)
SurveyUSA, at the behest of the Denver Post, takes its first look at the two hotly-contested (and underpolled, except by Rasmussen) Colorado races. SurveyUSA’s results, as you might expect, aren’t as optimistic as PPP or pessimistic as Rasmussen, giving small leads to the GOP in general matchups. The real drama, for now, is the primaries, where SurveyUSA sees appointed Dem incumbent Michael Bennet with a comfortable lead (as all other polls have seen). SurveyUSA, however, is the first public pollster (well, second, if you count Magellan) to see Tea Party-preferred Ken Buck moving into the lead in the GOP primary against establishment choice Jane Norton, and by a quite substantial margin (PPP gave Norton a 5-point edge in May). Is it any wonder that Norton is sprinting to the right, going the full Rudy with her loathsome new 9/11 themed ad?
Gubernatorial numbers released separately:
Scott McInnis (R): 57
Dan Maes (R): 29
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.6%)
John Hickenlooper (D): 43
Scott McInnis (R): 47
“Third Party”: 6
Undecided: 4John Hickenlooper (D): 44
Dan Maes (R): 45
“Third Party”: 5
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±2.6%)
The teabagger challenge to ex-Rep. Scott McInnis in the GOP gubernatorial primary, from businessman Dan Maes, isn’t going as well as Buck’s insurgency, which probably has a lot to do with Maes’ low name rec. Interestingly, though, Maes performs almost as well as McInnis in the general election matchups against Denver mayor John Hickenlooper, suggesting that there’s a big chunk of the Colorado population determined to vote Republican, even if it’s someone they’ve never heard of.
Buck really is one of those come from nowhere candidates. I could see him easily beating Norton by 20 points at this point.
…I treat this one in my mind as something between an open-seat contest and an incumbent contest, probably closer to an open seat.
I don’t think this race will be, to voters, a referendum on Bennet. He’s not been there long enough, and he was appointed after never having run for anything in his life. Bennet’s not in the same position as Reid or Lincoln or some others that way.
As a result, I think the national environment will factor much more here, as generic party preference is a bigger factor.
In that regard, I’m actually feeling good about Bennet down just 3 against Buck (and Norton, for that matter). He’s just not a traditional incumbent as far as I’m concerned, and he doesn’t need to be near 50 yet to have a very plausible path to victory.
from the standpoint that Colorado has a generally independent-minded electorate, much like New Hampshire. This is a state that went hard for Barack Obama for president and for Mark Udall in the Senate race. It also elected Betsy Markey in CO-4 by a huge margin over Marilyn Musgrave. The blue wave hit extremely hard here in 2008, and it would not surprise me at all if the red wave hit back just as hard, giving the republicans the Senate seat, and perhaps a house seat or two (I’m guessing CO-4 is going to flip back, and with a strong challenger in CO-7 and a republican-leaning district in CO-3, neither is totally out of the question either)
Colorado currently ranks 4th on my list of democratic senate seats most likely to flip, behind North Dakota, Arkansas, and Delaware in that order. A month ago I had Nevada as more likely but with Sharron Angle winning the GOP nomination, a GOP pickup in CO seems more likely now.
Are there ads yet? Or will this, like PA-SEN, not take off until the final weeks?
The races are tossups, and our candidates are way better than theirs.
Colorado looked like a big problem six months ago, but both races should end up three to four point wins, with Hick a little better than Bennet.
For all the bluster and whining that goes on, almost all signs point to this being a normal cycle in general, especially after the GOP sideshow primaries stop getting all the attention.