SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Morning Edition)

  • FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Florida Chamber of Commerce Political Institute and Cherry Communications (6/9-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

    • Rick Scott (R): 35

    Bill McCollum (R): 30

    Undecided: 33

    (MoE: ±_%)

    Alex Sink (D): 26

    Rick Scott (R): 30

    Bud Chiles (I): 15

    Alex Sink (D): 26

    Bill McCollum (R): 31

    Bud Chiles (I): 15

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Kendrick Meek (D): 14

    Marco Rubio (R): 31

    Charlie Crist (I): 42

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • IL-Sen: Really gotta wonder what’s going on here. The New York Times keeps digging into Mark Kirk’s past and finds that the nursery school where he claimed to teach for a brief spell in 1981 “never, ever considered” Kirk a teacher, according to a leader of its affiliated church.
  • UT-Sen: Mike Lee has an internal poll, conducted by Wenzel Strategies, showing him with a 45-35 lead over Time Bridgewater in the GOP primary. However, an independent poll conducted by Dan Jones and Associates for the Deseret News & KSL-TV has almost opposite numbers: 42 Bridgewater, 33 Lee.
  • IA-Gov: Chet Culver is out with his first ad of the general election campaign, attacking ex-Gov. Terry Branstad for his dodgy fiscal stewardship of the state during his long tenure in the governor’s mansion. No word on the size of the buy.
  • AR-02: Rove acolyte Tim Griffin is out with an internal poll from OnMessage showing him with a 50-34 lead over Joyce Elliott. He also announced the endorsement of weirdo D.C. Morrison – yeah, the guy who ran in the Democratic senate primary. Not really a surprise, though, since Morrison previously said he planned to support John Boozman in that race.
  • NY-23: Good news, everybody! I opened up the ballot box, and Schroedinger’s cat fud is very much alive! In fact, there’s a 100% chance of a right-wing split in NY-23 no matter what happens now. That’s because the Independence Party gave their line to Matt Doheny, who is also seeking the Republican nomination. But of course, our old friend Doug Hoffman is also vying for the GOP nod – and he already has the Conservative Party’s endorsement. This means that regardless of who wins the Republican primary, at least one ballot line will remain occupied by a legitimate Republican candidate.
  • ID-01: This is sorta weird. You remember that Vaughn Ward ripped off an Obama speech, right? Well, it turns out that he also ganked large chunks of a speech from Pat Meehan, too, who is running in PA-07. (At least Meehan’s a Republican.) What’s odd, though, is why is TV news station KTVB investigating this stuff now, weeks after Ward lost the GOP primary? Aren’t there actual candidates worth reporting about?
  • UT-02: Those same media organizations (see UT-Sen item above) also had Dan Jones poll the 2nd CD, finding Rep. Jim Matheson leading Claudia Wright 52-33 in the Democratic primary. That’s good for Matheson, but by no means great, given his almost comical spending advantage.

    • 48 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Morning Edition)”

    3. I think democrats are going to do surprisingly well in the house and surprisingly poorly in the senate. Reason being is that House races tend to be primarily local. and any attempt to nationalize house races usually leads to be seen as out of touch (see NY-23, PA-12). So absent of major scandals democrats will probably keep house races localized. The opposite is true with senate races which tend to be nationalized (MA 2010, RI 2006)  so the national anti-whatever environment   will affect senate races more profoundly.  

    4. What is a teacher?  I was considered a Teaching Assistant in college even though I was referred to as a Research Assistant by my boss and my scope of employment was entirely research oriented.  Apparently the administration called me a teaching assistant even though I never went into the classroom to actually teach.  Now on resumes, I list being a TA on my work experience section.  I was not classified that by my boss, but the administration loved classifying me in such a way.

      Seeing Kirk was on some sort of work study at the time, I am curious if there is a similar academic bureaucratic reason for it.  Again this is a great example of why we should all be skeptical of academic bureaucrats.

    5. From Hotline On Call:

      For the first time this cycle, the NRSC has reported having more cash on hand than its Dem counterpart, spending frugally even as the DSCC has outraised its rival.

      The NRSC raised just $3.6M in May, but spent only $2.5M. The committee ended the month with $18.1M in the bank.

      Dems, meanwhile, raised $5M for May but spent $4.56M last month. The committee has $17.57M in the bank. Neither the DSCC nor the NRSC has any debt.

      Both party committees have begun spending on infrastructure in several states, and the difference between the 2 is negligible in the long run. The DSCC has raised slightly more — about $66.8M to the NRSC’s $64.1M — but it’s the first time a GOP committee has more money physically in the bank than their Dem rivals.

    6. FL-Sen: Looks like Crist is still going to trounce Meek…but in a totally unexpected way.  And this time, looks like we might actually want that to happen.

      NY-23: (Nethack reference) You feel as if someone put a ring of conflict on.

    7. PPP tweeted today:

      Just polled a race no one except Ras has polled in months and our numbers may really change the conventional wisdom on it

      No, they didn’t say what race, but Pennsylvania and Texas won their last contest and are where PPP was going next, and Pennsylvania has been polled by quite a few outfits beyond just Rasmussen.

      So I’m guessing we’re talking TX-Gov, where polling has, indeed, been scarce, and I can’t recall anyone but Rasmussen post-primary.

      I’m hopeful this means White is doing REAL well!

      Or, maybe he’s getting the crap kicked out of him?

      Rasmussen has had White up in the orbit of 10 points, a 48-40 margin last time and 52-41 before that.  It was 44-40 immediately post-primary.  All those numbers actually looked reasonable, since Rasmussen bounces around wildly when it comes to passing the laugh test.

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