SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Afternoon Edition)

• CT-Sen: You might recall that late last week Peter Schiff was looking unlikely to qualify for the ballot, not having enough signatures. Well, now it looks like he will qualify; I’m not sure whether the outcome was ever in doubt or he was gaming expectations. At any rate, he managed to get the signatures of 2% of all registered Republicans in the state, and the SoS announced his certification today. Also in the Nutmeg State, Joe Lieberman, who’d floated the idea of a Linda McMahon endorsement, now sounds like he’ll stay out of the Senate race entirely… given the choice between supporting arch-foe Richard Blumenthal or McMahon (who, given her unlikeliness of winning, isn’t a good use of political capital).

• IL-Sen: The optics on this just aren’t good for Mark Kirk: after an appearance at the Metropolitan Planning Council, Kirk literally ran out the door instead of taking questions from the media (who probably want to know about his military and teaching claims) and peeled out in his SUV. Alexi Giannoulias was also present; in a sign of how the worm has turned, instead of running out the door (as he probably would have several months ago) he lingered comfortably. Bad news on the cat fud front, though: Mike Niecestro, the rich guy who came out of nowhere last week to announce that he had 25,000 signatures and $1 million for an independent Senate bid to Kirk’s right, has had to back down. Turns out he didn’t have enough signatures after all. However, here’s some limited good news: Niecestro says he’s backing somebody by the name of Randy Stufflebeam, who’ll be running under the Constitution Party banner. Stufflebeam doesn’t seem to have Niecestro’s money, but he at least seems to have enough signatures to qualify. (Also on the filings front, pawnbroker-turned-LG-nominee-turned-laughingstock Scott Lee Cohen brought in 130K signatures for his independent IL-Gov bid, five times as many as he needs.)

• AL-Gov: The recount is over in Alabama, and as expected, Tim James’ $200K was very badly spent. The official tally: he now finished down by more than 200 votes, instead of the 167 he trailed by on Election Night. This means that Robert Bentley has clinched the slot in the GOP runoff against Bradley Byrne.

• IA-Gov: In what’s not a surprise, Terry Branstad has been on bended knee trying to get the backing of GOP primary rival Bob Vander Plaats, but it’s not going well. Vander Plaats reportedly requested the Lt. Governor spot, which Branstad isn’t going to do. However, this is a surprise to me: apparently Iowa doesn’t have a sore loser law, because now there’s talk of this leading to an independent run by Vander Plaats, which he’s now “seriously considering.” A kamikaze run by Vander Plaats that peels off 10% might actually give Chet Culver a route to staying in office.

• MI-Gov: Another EPIC-MRA poll of the Michigan governor’s race is out, this time only of the two primaries. On the Dem side, Andy Dillon has a 34-24 lead over Virg Bernero (leaving 42% undecided). On the GOP side, here’s a new development: Mike Cox is actually pulling into the lead, at 26. He leads Peter Hoekstra at 24, Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Bouchard at 16, and Tom George at 2, with 12 undecided. Is this just a blip, or is Cox really gaining some ground, having gotten some big conservative endorsements (Michigan Right to Life, the DeVos family) lately? Chances are it’s for real, now that there’s another round of attack ads out targeting Cox for allegedly helping cover up a party-out-of-bounds at then-Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s mansion. (The radio ad is paid for by the mysterious Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, which the Cox camp seems to think is linked to Snyder.)

• NV-Gov: The Hatch Act is an obscure little piece of legislation, although it’s at the core of what the GOP thinks is illegal about the PA-Sen/Co-Sen “jobsgate.” Well, it might just bite the Republicans in the butt, too: there are increasing questions over whether Brian Sandoval, who stepped down from the federal district court in order to run for Governor, engaged in politicking with still on the bench. The RGA’s Haley Barbour and Nick Ayers reportedly heavily recruited Sandoval into the race; considering how little time passed between his resignation and his entry into the race, some of that recruiting must have happened while son the bench.

• SC-Gov: Mitt Romney really, really wants to see Nikki Haley as Governor (probably because he’d like to have someone in charge of S. Carolina in 2012 who owes him a favor or three); he just gave $42K to Haley, who faces a GOP runoff tomorrow. (He was able to give that much, despite contribution limits, by harnessing six different PACs.) There have also been some eyebrows raised over a $2,000 consulting fee paid to Haley in 2008 by a construction firm, revealed when she disclosed her tax returns; it has a quid pro quo-ish whiff to it (the firm’s head said it was to pay for business leads and “help with things”), but isn’t likely to put a dent in the outcome of tomorrow’s runoff at this point.

• CO-04: Cory Gardner’s decision to bail on a fundraiser with unpalatable Iowa Rep. Steve King may hurt him more than if he’d actually gone through with it. King is still harping on Gardner’s lack of fortitude. King was joined on a conservative radio talk show in Colorado last Friday by ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo, who took turns tag-team insulting Gardner for an hour.

• ID-01: I don’t know how much weight to give this, but Rep. Mike Simpson (from the 2nd) is publicly saying it’s possible that Rep. Walt Minnick could play a role in voting in a different speaker than Nancy Pelosi, if the Dem majority is small enough after 2010 and whatever Blue Dogs are left hold the vote in the balance. Minnick, for his part, shrugged it off, although without a categorical denial, saying it’s “premature.” In a weird way, though, Simpson might be doing Minnick a favor here. Already a beneficiary of endorsement as the Tea Party Express’s token Democrat, this gives Minnick further cover to keep Dem leadership at arm’s length in the runup to November.

• NC-08: “I’d do everything the crazy guy would do; I just wouldn’t do it in a crazy way,” seems to be the argument here, which may not be the best electability argument. But that’s Harold Johnson’s way of framing tomorrow’s GOP runoff in the 8th, saying that he’d vote the “basically the same way” as Tim D’Annunzio.

116 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. Stufflebeam can’t be the thorn that Niecestro could’ve been unless Niecestro completely bankrolls his campaign. But he does have some cred among the looney right, and Kirk is already running scared of those people, so maybe it’ll do just enough damage.

    And at this point, “just enough” probably isn’t much at all. Kirk’s got a One-word Negative now, which is one of the most painful things you can have in politics. I actually read the Tribune this morning (because of the Blackhawks posters, but still…) and even his supporters among the LTEs had to be like, “Yes, he was slimey about his experience, but…”

    OTOH, Cohen getting into the GOV race probably means a Republican pick up. Pity Pat Quinn, I really think he was just doing what he thought was best with an absolutely terrible situation.

  2. and, therefore, something that will go away, or is it potentially very bad and something that could sour public attitudes toward Rahm Emanuel and either make him step down or/and rub off onto the White House and possibly Congressional Democrats?

    Rahm Traded Favors with Blago: Report

    Excerpt:


    President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, then a congressman in Illinois, apparently attempted to trade favors with embattled Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich while he was in office, according to newly disclosed e-mails obtained by The Associated Press.

    Emanuel agreed to sign a letter to the Chicago Tribune supporting Blagojevich in the face of a scathing editorial by the newspaper that ridiculed the governor for self-promotion. Within hours, Emanuel’s own staff asked for a favor of its own: The release of a delayed $2 million grant to a school in his district.

    The 2006 discussion occured with Blagojevich’s top aide, Deputy Gov. Bradley Tusk, and doesn’t appear to cross legal lines;  Emanuel couldn’t speed up the distribution of the funds. But it offers a peek at ties between two high-profile Illinois politicians – one now the president’s right-hand man, the other facing years in prison if convicted of political corruption.

    My reaction is that it’s smelly, but I don’t know how people in Illinois will react to it. It doesn’t seem directly relevant to any current campaign anywhere in the country, but you know Republicans will use ANYTHING to make the President, his Administration, and the Democrats look bad. And this is legitimate to criticize as an effective, though tacit quid pro quo.

    Here’s an exchange (excerpted, and of course without attribution) between a conservative Republican friend of mine and a friend of his on Facebook:

    This is only the stuff we know about. Wonder how much more stuff is building in the Chicago to Washington pipeline.

    and who is going to prosecute? Holder? Which is why elections are important. Senate hearings and special prosecutors are called for.

    Nothing will be done, unless a complete change in leadership, congress , etc. Yet the Republicans are pussies.

    Amazing! I’m constantly reading on DailyKos – and saying – that the Democrats are – well, spineless or/and in some cases, paid agents of big business. Here are two folks saying the Republicans are pussies!

    But the point is, whatever dirt comes out from Democrats will be used – legitimately or not – by Republicans to paint the whole party as corrupt. Running on the fact that the Bush Administration and Congressional Republicans actually let businesses write legislation and regulations that affected them would probably not blunt Republican attacks based on actually documented instances of Democratic wrongdoing or sleaziness because “they all suck” cancels things out, at best, and redounds to the detriment of the party in power, at worst.

  3. for Fiorina and Palin.  I’m surprised that the Chronicle would print it.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…

    Carly and Palin come off a lot better in this story than Boxer when you just look at the surrogates that the Chronicle turned to to represent both sides.  One side is a successful business executive making a positive case for Palin and fiorina and boxer’s side are political operatives just slamming palin and fiorina.

    I suppose Boxer isn’t particularly friendly with the California media.

  4. King and Tancredo are nutbags, everyone knows that.  Tancredo is worse than Musgrave was, and remember Musgrave survived 2006 only because of a 3rd candidate, and she got crushed in 2008.  Gardner I’m sure realizes, thus he doesn’t want to be associated with the lunatic fringe.  He just wants their votes, and he’ll get ’em, they won’t stay home.  But he can’t afford to piss off the broad middle, and if anything he’s helped a little by being on Tancredo’s and King’s bad side.

  6. I would love to see BVP go indy and help re-elect Chet Culver.  I know this isn’t the site to say this on, but I do wish all states would get rid of sore loser laws, it would make elections more exciting in some cases.  

  7. I love seeing the pro-lifers show how their morality is very hollow on everything else.  Cox is an admitted serial adulterer.  

    I could care less what people do in their bedrooms as long as they are competent, but I do not preach a morality agenda either.  

  8. I just want to let you know it is not too late to make calls for it. This is a big chance to pick a seat and put us one seat away from the 2/3 majority. We will need it if Meg is elected. Laird is a liberal progressive and a strong environmentalist. His opponent, Blakeslee is a conservative former Exxon Oil executive and has received contributions from…BP, yes the BP with the oil spill. If we will get a 2/3 State Senate majority in California, we must pick up seats like this one. It would be great to sign up and make a few calls.

    http://www.lairdforsenate.com/…

  9. What is the deadline for Branstad to pick a Lt. Gov nominee? If its after the filing deadline for independents, could he just play along like BVP was being considered and then announce after the filing deadline that he picked someone else?

  11. Ralston reports on and links Reid’s Spanish-language ad on Univision during the World Cup.

    Ralston notes Univision World Cup ratings have been sky high, and wonders why only Reid is advertising there.  I’m glad Reid is the only one, that the Republicans are doing nothing.

    Also, am I alone in thinking it’s bunk how much the media thinks immigration reform legislation is soooooo critical for Dems to turn out the Hispanic vote?  This is white media ignorance at its worst (I’m speaking myself as a man of color).  Hispanics, like blacks and other people of color, have a wide range of political and policy concerns, and are adults and know exactly what they’re doing.  The media’s reductionism to one or two big issues they just assume decide the votes of people of color is nauseatingly ignorant, and worst yet ignorant on its face.  Hispanics have been voting one-sidedly for Democrats for a long time with no immigration reform bill, their votes don’t depend on that one thing even if it’s a big thing.

    All of the above in mind, Reid is going to get a lot higher Hispanic turnout and higher Hispanic vote share with actual voter contact like he’s doing and like OFA will do, than from any particular legislative initiative.  Immigration reform is not remotely close to make-or-break.

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