North Carolina, South Carolina, & Utah Primary/Run-Off Preview

Here’s what’s on-tap for tonight:

• NC-Sen (D): They take a long time to get around to their runoffs in North Carolina, but we’re finally here. The marquee contest pits Secretary of State Elaine Marshall against former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Marshall led 36-27 in the first round, with 17% going to third-place finisher Ken Lewis, who endorsed Marshall a few weeks after the primary. As evidenced by Lewis’s backing, Marshall seems to have rallied the black political community to her side, while Cunningham still retains the support of the DC establishment (DSCC chair Bob Menendez’s PAC recently gave him $5,000). The only public poll of this race was from PPP, which showed things tied at 36. However, that survey was taken just after the primary, at the beginning of May, and it’s hard to say how things may have changed since then. But if Marshall can consolidate Lewis’s vote (see Jeff’s maps here), she ought to be in good position to win.
• NC-08 (R): It’s hard out there for a nutter – really, it is. There’s so much competition these days – from Rand Paul, from Sharron Angle, even from Vaughn Ward. But Tim D’Annunzio’s tried his best. In fact, he’s tried everything, from claiming he knows where the Ark of the Covenant lies buried (Arizona) to suing his opponent, former TV sportscaster Harold Johnson (for defamation). The entire Republican establishment from chimpan-a to chimpan-z has rushed to get behind Johnson, but he’s only raised about $363K. Meanwhile D’Annunzio has been flushing money like a smack addict (which he once was), to the tune $1.3 million. In a recent survey, PPP nonetheless had Johnson leading 49-39, but we can – nay, we must – still root for Timmy D!
• SC-Gov (R): Despite some misgivings from elements of the SC GOP establishment (including the Chamber of Commerce), it appears that state Rep. Nikki Haley is the smart money bet to win the Republican gubernatorial run-off against Congressman Gresham Barrett. Haley came oh-so-close to an outright victory in the first round of voting, scoring 49% to Barrett’s 22%. Third-place finisher Henry McMaster, the state’s attorney general, threw his support to Haley while Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer backed Barrett. It’s been mostly smooth sailing for Haley in the runoff, though, and an internal poll released by her campaign a week and a half ago gave her a commanding lead over Barrett. (J)
• SC-01 (R): The run-off for the nod to replace GOP Rep. Henry “Smokey” Brown in the House of Representatives is coming down to African-American state Rep. Tim Scott and attorney Paul Thurmond, the son of Strom. Scott has a lot going for him, including the support of the NRCC and other Washington power-players who are exited by the prospect of finally electing another black Republican to the House. Scott also has the muscle of the Club for Growth behind him, so it would probably be a serious upset if Thurmond, who won only 16% of the vote to Scott’s 31% in the first round, prevailed. (J)
• SC-03 (R): Businessman Richard Cash, who finished with a surprisingly strong 25% in the first round, and Laurens County State Rep. Jeff Duncan (who received 23%) are squaring off to replace outgoing would-be governor Gresham Barrett. The pair have split the endorsements of some also-rans, Duncan earning the support of 5th place finisher Neal Collins and Cash that of 6th place’s Mike Vasovski. Third and fourth place finishers Rex Rice (who was widely expected to make the runoff) and Joe Grimaud haven’t endorsed either. Duncan is the institutional candidate, but both are somewhat teabaggish. Regrettably, regardless of who wins, he will likely be the next Congressman from this R+17 district. (JMD)
• SC-04 (R): Bob Inglis version 2.0, and his rare voice of rationality in the House GOP caucus, seem to be going the way of Windows 3.1. His 28% tally in the first round against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (who received 39%) and assorted teabaggery is the weakest of any House incumbent so far. Though none have made endorsements, Inglis’ other opponents in the first round, seem to be more in line ideologically with Gowdy. Given this, and despite a late endorsement from Stephen Colbert, we can likely chalk this one up to America Glenn Beck 1, Sanity 0. (JMD)
• UT-Sen (R): With three-term incumbent Bob Bennett having been unceremoniously retired at the GOP convention, Utah Republicans are deciding between the two insurgents who beat Bennett, former Utah County GOP chair Tim Bridgewater and Mike Lee, the former counsel to ex-Gov. Jon Huntsman. Bridgewater may have the mantle of “establishment” thrust upon him, thanks to the endorsement of Bennett, and correspondingly, while Lee is running with the conglomerated FreedomWorks/Club for Growth/Jim DeMint/RedState axis backing him — but, as Ed Kilgore points out, that doesn’t really make Bridgewater appreciably any less ultra-conservative than Lee. Bridgewater leads the most recent public poll of the race, 42-33, but Lee is out with his own internal giving him the lead. (C)
• UT-02 (D): Rep. Jim Matheson shouldn’t have trouble winning tonight’s Democratic primary against activist and teacher Claudia Wright; it’s more a question of by what margin? It was something of a surprise when Matheson got forced into a primary at the Democratic state convention, but (like the flipside of the GOP convention) that’s dominated by the activist base, some of whom seem eager to punish Matheson over his ‘no’ vote on health care reform. A number of other anti-HCR Blue Doggish Dems (Heath Shuler, Tim Holden, Larry Kissell) in red districts have been held in the 65% region by no-namers in their primaries; the one poll of this primary, giving Matheson a 52-33 lead, suggests a similar outcome here. (C)

Bonus race:

• CA SD-15: There’s one other race to watch tonight: the special election to fill the 15th Senate district in California, left vacant by Republican Abel Maldonado’s ascension to Lt. Governor. If there’s one good place left in California for a Democratic legislative pickup, this is it. It’s a D+5 district on California’s Central Coast, where Democratic former Assemblyman John Laird faces off against GOP Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee. Don’t forget, though, under California’s unusual special election system, this probably isn’t the decisive night. There are also an independent and Libertarian on the ballot, and if nobody clears the 50% hurdle, there’s a runoff on August 17. (C)