WI-Gov: Barrett Trails by Single Digits

PPP (pdf) (6/26-27, Wisconsin voters, 3/20-21 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 38 (39)

Scott Walker (R): 45 (42)

Undecided: 17 (19)

Tom Barrett (D): 36 (38)

Mark Neumann (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 23 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

PPP’s Wisconsin gubernatorial sample is out, showing some slight movement within the MOE against presumptive the Democratic nominee, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, to succeed outgoing Dem Jim Doyle. Doyle’s incredibly unpopular at 28/59 approval, which may be rubbing off on Barrett, who’s slightly underwater at 28/30 favorables. Barrett does marginally better against former 8th CD Rep. Mark Neumann than Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, who might be cutting into Barrett’s base a bit. Polling of the Republican primary has been sparse at best, but it seems Neumann – and his abhorrent favorables at 18/35 – would be the weaker target (compare to Walker’s 36/28).

Though Indies are breaking for Neumann 41-29 and Walker 43-30, there is some upside in these numbers. More Democrats (20% in Barrett-Neumann and 14% in Barrett-Walker) remain undecided than Republicans (16% and 9%), and Barrett’s only losing 7% of Democrats against Neumann and 8% against Walker. If Barrett can consolidate Democratic support, it’d go a long way towards closing that gap. Either way, there’ll be more certainty in this race after Wisconsin’s late primary, September 14th.

80 thoughts on “WI-Gov: Barrett Trails by Single Digits”

  1. Not sure it would change the overall results much but PPP tends to under sample younger voters. According to the 2006 CNN exit poll of the Wisconsin Gov race 17% of the voters were age 18-29, PPP’s sample is 6% 18-29 year olds. If you look at almost all their recent polls the 18-29 year old demographic is way under sampled compared to 4 years ago.

  2. I’m surprised they would release this garbage too.

    As with the Senate poll, they are projecting for every 100% unit of Mccain voters they are projecting only 72% of Obama voters will vote for anyone.

    Using 2006 as rough guide, a 70% turnout of Mccain voters would be normal.  There were 1,262,000 Mccain voters, so that would project to about 883,000 voters in 2010.  

    Using PPP’s numbers then, Obama voter turnout in 2010 would be about 900,000.  

    This means 777,000 Obama voters will not vote, while 380,000 Mccain voters will not vote.  More than twice as many Obama voters will not vote for any candidate.

    Also according to PPP the total number of voters in 2010 will be about 1,783,000…. while 2006 turnout was 2,150,000.

    So PPP is projecting a historic bad turnout for Wisconsin, approximately 15% less than the 52% in 2006.

    This is absurd, especially when PPP’s Ohio poll shows they expect ony 2% of Obama voters will stay away…. that’s 2% Obama non-voters in Ohio and 28% Obama non-voters in Ohio (and 100% Mccain voters in both).

    Impossible.  Not only are Ohio and Wisconsin not that different, Wisconsin is a normally higher turnout state, and its AA voter percentage is lower.  PPP’s poll is impossible.

  3. I was under the impression that Barrett was some kind of superstar that could hold onto this seat for the Democrats, after Jim Doyle’s disasterous approval ratings came to light. I mean, the guy took on a crazy mugger and lived to tell about it, broken hand and all. Of course, that didn’t really provide any sort of bounce in the polls, as this Scott Walker fella seems to be picking up steam.

    Both Barrett and Walker seem to have a plan to slash government spending, but I guess voters are looking for an actual conservative when it comes to that issue. Another thing hurting Barrett is his association with the Obama White House, whom I understand persuaded him to enter the governor’s race in the first place.

  4. Is the attack ads the RGA has been running. They are doing good this year, defining their opponents before they define us. That has to explain why Barrett went from being one of the most popular politicians PPP tested to a negative rating.  

Comments are closed.