SSP Daily Digest: 7/14 (Morning Edition)

  • CO-Sen: Ken Buck raised $417K in Q2 and had $664K cash-on-hand – more than rival Jane Norton does, despite the fact that she outraised him.
  • KY-Sen: Rand Paul campaign chair David Adams is leaving – or being asked to leave. You never know with these things. Anyhow, Adams supposedly prefers state to federal politics (especially funny in the context of this campaign) and is going to manage some unspecified gubernatorial candidate. As CNN notes, though, Adams had actually been Paul’s campaign manager, but was recently demoted after Rand’s disastrous set of post-primary interviews.
  • NV-Sen: In an interview with Ralph Reed, Sharron Angle informs the world that “God has been in this” – her campaign – “from the beginning.” I think Harry Reid would agree, since it’s a damn near miracle that we landed an opponent so awful!
  • WA-Sen: Dino Rossi says he raised $1.4 million since launching his campaign six weeks ago, but no word on his cash-on-hand. That’s not too shabby, and it might look impressive compared to Patty Murray’s $1.6 million haul for the entire quarter. But that first batch of cash is always the easiest to raise – the proverbial low-hanging fruit. Can he sustain that momentum?
  • WI-Sen: King of the Loons Jim DeMint has endorsed Ron Johnson – a rare instance, as Dave Catanese points out, where the establishment choice has also been DeMinted.
  • WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin says he’ll name a temporary replacement for Robert Byrd by 5pm on Friday. Manchin also released the text of proposed legislation to change WV’s succession laws. The new law would allow a special election this November, with primaries (if necessary) to be held on August 31st.
  • AZ-Gov: It’s pretty amazing how much becoming the standard-bearer for xenophobia has dramatically altered Jan Brewer’s entire candidacy. She was an accidental governor, elevated to the post by Janet Napolitano’s appointment to the Department of Homeland Security. She also looked like electoral roadkill, losing ugly fights with an even further-right state legislature and drawing several high-profile opponents. But along came SB 1070, Arizona’s infamous new immigration law. Brewer’s full-throated support for the legislation, and her hysterical ranting about undocumented immigrants, have made her the conservative belle du jour. Just a few days ago, one of her major challengers, state Treasurer Dean Martin, bailed on the race. And now, the other big name running against her – wealthy NRA board member Buz Mills – is also dropping out. So at this point, it’s pretty much game on between Brewer and Dem AG Terry Goddard.
  • GA-Gov: Magellan Strategies (7/8, likely Republican primary voters, no trendlines):

    • Karen Handel: 32

    Nathan Deal: 18

    John Oxendine: 18

    Eric Johnson: 12

    Ray McBerry: 3

    Jeff Chapman: 3

    Otis Putnam: 0

    Undecided: 14

    (MoE: ±2.8%)

  • MI-07: Former Rep. Joe Schwarz, who held this seat for one term, has endorsed Brian Rooney in the GOP primary, over the man who primaried him out in 2006, Club for Growth cabana boy Tim Walberg. It’s not clear how much a Schwarz endorsement helps in a Republican race, though, considering he also backed now-Rep. Mark Schauer (D) in 2008. And this bit of support is entirely conditional – not only does Schwarz say he’ll definitely support Schauer if Walberg wins the primary, but he might even do so if Rooney wins, saying he’ll re-evaluate things later.
  • MN-06: Both Michele Bachmann’s chief-of-staff and (of more relevance to her campaign) her finance director have parted ways with the polarizing congresswoman. It’s often tricky to tell whether a departure is a sign of turmoil, an indicator that a campaign is getting an upgrade, or really just nothing doing. But in this case, the fact that no replacements are being announced suggests that this isn’t part of an orderly transition. What’s more, why would Bachmann’s fundraiser leave right after announcing such an enormous quarterly haul? It’s especially telling that the fundraiser, Zandra Wolcott, wouldn’t say if she left or was pushed.
  • NM-01: A healthy quarter for Martin Heinrich: $376K raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand.
  • PA-07: Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates for Pat Meehan (6/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    • Bryan Lentz (D): 26

    Pat Meehan (R): 47

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Meehan favorables: 33-12. Lentz favorables: 12-7. A Lentz spokesperson attacked the poll as “skewed” but offered no specific critiques.

  • SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is out with her first ad of the campaign season, a bio spot which touts her vote against a “trillion-dollar health care plan.”
  • TN-08: The hip-hop wars are raging again! But it’s no longer Tupac vs. Biggie – this time it’s Republican Rob Kirkland versus radio station owner George Flinn on the mean streets of Memphis, TN. You may recall the odd situation here where Rob has been spending a fortune on allegedly “independent” expenditures on behalf of his brother Ron, who is the actual candidate in this race. Anyhow, Rob’s latest broadside is against Flinn’s ownership of a local hip-hop station, which (according to a Kirkland tv ad) “promotes gang violence, drug abuse, and insults women.” Another mailer attacks Flinn for “filthy gangster rap into our district.” Hey, guess what? Tipper Gore called, she wants her 1992-era harangue back.
  • DSCC: Seriously, who in hell allowed this to happen? Pretty much every Democratic senate candidate under the sun participated in a trial lawyers fundraiser… in Vancouver, CANADA. WTF? Could the optics be any worse? A fundraiser in a foreign country? And I don’t want to get all GOP-talking-point on you, but the fact that it’s the trial lawyers doesn’t really help. I’m filing this one under “DSCC” because you can’t possibly pull off an event of this magnitude without the DS knowing – and someone there should have had the brains to stop it. Or at least change the fucking venue to, you know, the United States of America. Maybe? Jeez.
  • Iowa: Jonathan Martin has an interesting piece at Politico about Christie Vilsack, who says she is “really interested” in running for office, perhaps as soon as 2012. It sounds like the House is her most likely target, but it’s hard to say where she might run. She and her family have ties all over the state, and Iowa is likely to lose a congressional district after the census. Though Martin doesn’t mention it, it’s not inconceivable that Sen. Tom Harkin will retire in 2014 (when he’ll be 75), which would create a big opening.

    • 99 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/14 (Morning Edition)”

    1. I think refer to her belief that she has the Lord’s strength and grace behind her as she goes through this trial of a campaign. It’s not like she’s the first person to invoke God’s support in anything one does. There really shouldn’t be any political flak for such a statement.

    2. This just adds credibility to the Flinn campaign and its impact on the primary electorate. Flinn has stuck primarily to a job creation message with a recent touch of attack ads, while Fincher and Kirkland have hammered each other over who has the most Democratic friendly associations.  

    3. In Georgia, is there a chance now that with Deal and Oxendine tied that Deal could overtake him and go to the runoff against Handel? Because that’s what it looks like with this poll.

      As for Arizona, does anyone get the sense that ever since Napolitano left, massive amounts of proverbial crap have just gushed forward? This immigration bill is probably just the start; I also heard some GOP lawmakers trying to ban photo radar down there. Janet Napolitano must have been the lid on Pandora’s Box all this time.

    6. and it doesn’t matter? http://www.kptv.com/yourvote/2…

      “If Chris Dudley’s campaign said, ‘We need to do this. It’s important to us,’ he would be there,” Hibbitts said. “Their judgment is that it isn’t that important and they can afford to blow it off politically. And, I would say candidly, I think they’re correct.”v

      Hibbitts is the gold standard for political analysis (and polling) in OR.

      I hate to say it, but he’s probably right. Voters aren’t paying attention yet.

    7. Bachmann is notorious for massive staff turnover.  That’s because she’s fucking batshit crazy, and even many of her conservative Republican staff privately know that and don’t want to serve that.  So they leave.  These latest departures are business-as-usual on Planet Bachmann.

    8. Looks like Lentz is roadkill no?  Meehan seems like someone who can hold the seat for a while too.  Sestak had better win the Senate race, otherwise that move looks abysmal.

    9. Remember the POS poll of OH-1 from July, 2008 that showed Chabot destroying Driehaus 50-37, and sporting a 63% favorability rating?

      http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

      Or the Connolly poll from around that same time showing him 31 points up?

      http://gerryconnolly.wordpress…

      Just putting those out there to remind anyone freaking out (or encouraged) by the recently released lopsided internals that what happens in November is often very different from what campaign shows you happening in July.

    11. More plagiarism allegations propping up, and, big news, The state’s largest newspaper suggested McInnis should not be governor:

         If you put your name on something and take money for it – a lot of money in this case – it is your responsibility to make rock-solid sure it is bona fide, original work that will stand up to scrutiny.

         The state’s chief executive must be someone Coloradans can believe in as the state suffers a stretch of tight budgets and a struggling economy.

         If Scott McInnis cannot be trusted to turn in what amounts to an overpaid term paper – without plagiarizing someone else’s work – there is no way he can be relied upon to guide Colorado through these complicated times.

    12. Schwarz is a good person and sadly a dying breed.  I was kind of disappointed that he didn’t run for Governor although I like Bernero’s populism some of his plans for Michigan may lack specifics.  Schwarz would have added well to the debate.  

    17. First, good polling out today.  Patriot Majority did a poll, 600 respondents, showing Reid up 44-40.  Reid at 45-52 favorability, Angle at 40-41.  No link to poll, just Ralson’s Tweet at http://twitter.com/RalstonFlas…  Second, Ralston apparently e-mailed on that poll to his list serve including Taegan Goddard, who posted at Political Wire ( http://politicalwire.com/archi… ) that Ralston says he’s seen a “non-Dem” poll (after conceding Patriot majority is partisan pro-Dem 3rd-party group) with what he called “nearly identical numbers.”  

      Third, Ralston tweets also that Reid reports $19.2 million raised total, $8.9 million banked, $2.4 million raised in Q2.  He’s in great shape!

      Fourth, new Reid ad again slams Angle on jobs, yet again using audio of her own words against her:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

      Really, Reid is kicking ass and I’m more confident every week.  Angle and Rove just can’t come remotely close to keeping up, and Angle is a constant disaster everytime she opens her mouth.

    Comments are closed.