The answer, unforunately, is that there are relatively few places with competitive races where Obama can help, given his modest approval ratings and unpopularity in many pockets of the country. Below is a list of states and districts where Obama exceeded 60% of the vote in 2008. If I were a candidate, I would only want an Obama visit in these places. It would be a potential risk just about anywhere else unless things really turn around.
1. LA-02 – Cedric Richmond (D) v. Joseph Cao (R)
2008 Result: 74-25 Obama
If there’s a district Obama can outright win for a candidate, this is it.
2. HI-GOV – Neil Abercrombie (D) v. Duke Aiona (R)
2008 Result: 72-27 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 72-26
Obama should make the trip for one big event.
3. HI-01 – Colleen Hanabusa (D) v. Charles Djou (R)
2008 Result: 70-28 Obama
Make it happen, Barack.
4. VT-GOV – Deb Markowitz (D) v. Brian Dubie (R)
2008 Result: 67-30 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 62-37
Room for the Democratic nominee to grow here, and Obama can help.
5. NY-GOV, NY-SEN(B) – Andrew Cuomo (D) v. Rick Lazio (D); Kirsten Gillibrand (D) v. Joe DioGuardi (R)
2008 Result: 63-36 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 61-39
New York statewide candidates may not need help.
6. CA-GOV, CA-SEN – Jerry Brown (D) v. Meg Whitman (R); Barbara Boxer (D) v. Carly Fiorina (R)
2008 Result: 61-37 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 59-39
Obama needs to come up huge in these races.
7. MD-GOV – Martin O’Malley (D) v. Bob Ehrlich (R)
2008 Result: 62-36 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 56-43
Obama can help a lot in Baltimore and DC.
8. MA-GOV – Deval Patrick (D) v. Charlie Baker (R)
2008 Result: 62-36 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 56-43
You can bet on Obama helping out his old friend.
9. RI-GOV – Frank Caprio (D) v. Lincoln Chafee (I)
2008 Result: 63-35 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 55-43
Would Caprio want the help? Would Obama campaign against supporter Chafee?
10. IL-GOV, IL-SEN – Pat Quinn (D) v. Bill Brady (R); Alexi Giannoulias (D) v. Mark Kirk (R)
2008 Result: 62-37 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 54-46
Chicago turnout will be everything for these guys. Obama needs to get there a lot.
11. DE-SEN, DE-AL – Chris Coons (D) v. Mike Castle (R); John Carney (D) v. Glen Urquhart (R)
2008 Result: 62-37 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 54-46
Biden a better fit here obviously.
12. OR-01 – David Wu (D) v. Rob Cornilles (R)
2008 Result: 61-36 Obama
Obama had tremendous Portland area enthusiasm in 2008.
13. IL-10 – Dan Seals (D) v. Bob Dold(!) (R)
2008 Result: 61-38 Obama
Obama should be able to help in Chicago area district.
14. CT-GOV, CT-SEN – Ned Lamont (D) v. Tom Foley (R), Richard Blumenthal (D) v. Linda McMahon (R)
2008 Result: 61-38 Obama
Latest Job Approval: 53-42
Blumenthal doesn’t need the help; Obama will probably only be able to help Lamont a little.
But there must be second as well. With name similar to “Where Obama must be avoided by any means!”