Quinnipiac (7/6-11, registered voters, 5/4-10 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 43 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 43 (42)
Undecided: 12 (16)
(MoE: 2.7%)
Considering that every poll released by Quinnipiac since May of last year has shown Sestak trailing Toomey, I think we can consider this to be a dose of good news. (Yes, according to Pollster.com, Toomey held leads of varying degrees in six consecutive Q-polls.) Nearly half of voters haven’t heard enough about either candidate to form a solid opinion about them, though, so this race has plenty of room for movement. One danger sign for Sestak is that Barack Obama is losing to a generic Republican opponent by 41-40 in a 2012 match-up. It could be worse, but that’s a major fade for a state that supported Obama by double digits in ’08.
Meanwhile, Toomey has considerable edge in fundraising, bringing in $3.1 million in the second quarter and holding $4.65 million in the bank. Sestak, who’s replenishing his reserves after spending big on his primary win over Arlen Specter, raised $2 million in the last three months and has the same amount on-hand. Toomey is already flexing his financial advantage with new ads, but, as usual, NWOTSOTB (no word on the size of the buy).
And, finally, the gubernatorial numbers:
Dan Onorato (D): 37 (37)
Tom Corbett (R): 44 (43)
Undecided: 18 (19)
(MoE: 2.7%)
This is actually one of the better polling results we’ve seen for Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato, but the numbers also illustrate just how challenging this race will be for a Democrat to win. By a 55-32 margin, voters want the next Governor to discontinue Ed Rendell’s policies, meaning that Onorato will have to walk a delicate line if he attempts to cast himself as a reformer.
I can live with $4.65 milliion vs. $2 million. I feared Sestak might have a lot less than $2 million right now. I vaguely recalled he raised $4 million total for the primary, and spent it all, so I feared he wouldn’t be able to raise 7 figures very quickly.
Toomey’s ads I think are still relatively new and might not yet have had enough time to take effect, so those ads still worry me.
But Sestak’s $2 million raised and banked makes me think the chatter courtesy of Politico that Sestak was running a bad campaign seems to have been yet more fo Politico’s eye-rolling “journalism.”
I wonder if in all that earlier polling (pre-May primary) of Toomey v Sestak, that your average non-political respondents just weren’t taking seriously the possibility that Spector wouldn’t be on the ballot in Nov.
Also, I’m a bit surprised that Sestak didn’t pick up a lot more name rec after that epic primary where he managed the rare feat of ousting an incumbent Senator.
Haven’t seen them in philly yet.
Democrat – 40%
GOP – 40%
Independent – 20%
Corbett – 15/90/53 = 54%
Onorato – 85/10/47 = 46%
Sestak – 87/10/48 = 47%
Toomey – 13/90/52 = 53%
Same strategy with with Specter, show a pic of on TV of Toomey with Bush. Game over as long as he doesn’t mess up something.
Only thing keeping Toomey in the hunt now is he is so unknown he still functions as a generic candidate, rather than one where hist stands on an issue or two can be used against him.
Like other places, the federal race favors the Dem but the state/Guv race is more of a problem. Still the ground to be made up is not that much.
I had made in another ad regarding Toomey’s ads. I saw one today, or at least the last 10 seconds. It featured Sestak saying he would have voted for a bigger stimulus ($1 trillion) and the narrator painting him as too liberal.
Good ad for Toomey’s base, but a good ad for Sestak’s base too. I’m not sure where it hits Indies but probably tilts well for those who are anti-incumbent.
The real question will come down to if people want the govt to do more to fix the economy, do they want more stimulus or do they believe the tax cuts will work. Of course this will be the crux of MANY elections this fall.