SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings

127 thoughts on “SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings”

1. KS-Governor. Has something happened in that race to make Brownback less likely to win?

   Otherwise, I can see the logic for all of these.  

2. 6 out of 40 is not much. Even if economy improves, say, in August-September (and present situation shows few signs of it, rather some sort of stagnation) – some time must go before people will perceive that and react correspondingly. So all the talk that “it’s more then 3 month before election” doesn’t sound very convincingly: of course some Republican candidates may implode, like we see now in Colorado, but generally – situation for Democrats is not difficult, it’s very difficult. Especially in Governor and House races..

3. move CA-Sen to tossup personally. Fiorina is still weighed down by what happened at HP, but with Boxer’s polarizing personality and the fact everyone down here in California hates politicians from Sacramento to Washington, Fiorina might be able to limit the damage attacks on tenure at HP that will come from Boxer and the DSCC

4. I didn’t see any poll showing Carney within single digits

5. You have IA-03, Leonard Boswell, going FROM “lean R” to tossup.  That had to be “lean D” before, right?  No one ever had Boswell the underdog!

6. Does anyone actually consider New Hampshire Senate a tossup at this point?  Barring some freaky outcome in the primary, this race is lean Republican.

7. My own opinion is that we know as much as the “experts.” And this election is going to test that. Rothenberg and Cook have had strange updates (Spratt as a toss-up, Dahlkemper too despite a weak opponent). I personally think they are getting too much information and out-thinking themselves.

8. Has no one noticed that Barnes has been running practically even (sometimes a little ahead, sometimes a little behind) for months??

   Real Clear Politics has the race at “Lean R” even though when you look at the data, Barnes is ahead!

9. Any explanation?

   I’m calling it Likely D, with Leans D at worst.

10. While Politico is still as useless as ever with their promotion of non-stories and beltway gossip as serious political reporting, I thought this quote from Rep. Alcee Hastings, regarding the president’s purportedly tepid support of Rep. Kendrick Meek’s run for the open Florida Senate seat:

    “If they do not step up their support for Kendrick, then they cannot expect that I and my allies will support them in 2012,” Hastings said, after describing the West Wing’s treatment of Meek as “poor.”

    Is he for real? I’m sure the leader of the free world cares what Alcee Hastings thinks.

    Also this slice of whatever from Rep. Hastings:

    “President Obama is going to be on the ballot in 2012. If Kendrick Meek could win this election, then Obama’s election is a slam dunk,” Hastings said.

    I do not understand this gentleman’s logic at all. I mean, I’m probably more optimistic than most Democrats about November and I see no way whatsoever that Kendrick Meek can beat Crist or Rubio in a three-way race, especially after having to spend money to defeat that loser Jeff Greene. If this were a one on one fight in the general, he might have a shot.

    One particularly infuriating part of this story is that the writer tries to shoehorn the Shirley Sherrod debacle into all this in order to advance the narrative that President Obama is somehow insensitive to African Americans.

11. That must be some kind of record.

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