So here are my updated House predictions. In my last predictions, I had Dems losing 26 seats (30 Republican takeovers, 4 Dem). The new number is 23 seats (27 Republican takeovers, 4 Dem). IA-03 was added to the takeovers, and FL-24, IL-14, and NV-03 fell off. This was a new, somewhat more scientific approach, so I wasn’t really trying to achieve any consistency with the old picks. I tried to estimate partisan turnout based on statewide exit poll data extrapolated district-by-district according to PVI.
I am also paring the list down, noting only the races I expect to be decided by 10 or less. And for you nitpickers, I have tried to account for third party candidates. Most of the totals that do not add up to 100% are attributable for that. For a few races where there were no third party candidates, the margins totaled 99% so that I could represent an odd-numbered margin without using decimals.
AR-02 – Griffin 59, Elliott 39 – Waffling on Pelosi? Really, Ms. Elliott?
CO-04 – Gardner 50, Markey 45 –
DE-AL – Carney 53, Rollins 45 – Monster hall for Rollins a little disconcerting.
KS-03 – Yoder 52, Moore 45 – Moore had a solid fundraising haul for Q2.
LA-02 – Richmond 52, Cao 44 – Not that I don’t believe internal poll, but this one should move a lot when voters inform themselves.
MI-01 – Allen 52, McDowell 44 – McDowell fundraising hall was disappointing.
NH-02 – Bass 51, Kuster 45 – Don’t like the way NH is shaping up for Dems this cycle.
NY-29 – Reed 58, Zeller 40 – My sense is that Dems are just trying to build Zeller’s profile.
OH-01 – Chabot 49, Driehaus 44 – Hard for Driehaus to replicate 2008 turnout.
OH-15 – Stivers 51, Kilroy 44 – Tough for Kilroy to put together her fragile coalition this year.
PA-07 – Meehan 52, Lentz 46 – Hard to deny that Meehan has the edge here.
PA-11 – Barletta 53, Kanjorski 47 – Kanjorski cannot stop tripping over his own feet.
TN-06 – Tracey 62, Leming 35 – Dems won’t contest this.
TX-17 – Flores 51, Edwards 46 – Well-funded Flores almost has to beat Edwards after 2008 result.
VA-05 – Hurt 51, Periello 44 – Can’t completely discount SUSA poll.