369 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread 2.0”

  6. I noticed on OurCampaigns.com that the Democratic Senate Primary is on September 14, but every other primary in the state is on September 7. Is that correct?  

  8. Number from Ras from yesterday:

    Otter 53, Allred 36

    Sounds horrible, doesn’t it?

    Going back to March and May:

    Otter 60, Allred 28

    Otter 54, Allred 32

    That might just be the biggest improvement of any race that Ras has shown in the last year.

    All I’ve got to say is that making a 32% spread a 22% one and then making it a 17% one is big, and it could continue.

    One thing here in Idaho is that it doesn’t seem like a different year politically, so this could be a 2006.

    Jerry Brady lost here 53-44.

    Here are the polling numbers from 2006 (Ras didn’t poll here) from late August, mid-October and two from late October.

    D-18-42-43-41

    R-42-40-44-36

    In other words, Keith Allred is already in a better position than Jerry Brady was four years ago, and everybody says that Brady ran such a great campaign (and it was the best since Andrus’s last. So you might want to keep an eye out here.  And on Walt Minnick’s behalf, thank god.

  9. 1. A strict partisan who isn’t afraid to stand for their own principles but usually takes the maximalist position, thereby shifting the overton window. Think Alan Grayson, Anthony Weiner or Jim Demint.

    2. A consumate deal maker who inserts themselves into the process regardless of their knowledge or expertise in an issue. Usually ideologically flexible. John Breaux and old school Arlen Specter come to mind.

    3. A backroom bill writer. The kind that usually doesn’t angle for the cameras but whose fingerprints can be found on hundreds of bills. Henry Waxman is the obvious example.

    4. The policy buff who has years of experience in a particular issue. Jay Rockefeller for Health Care and Dick Lugar in Foreign Affairs.

    5. Someone with “new ideas”. A wonk who pushes for root and branch reforms, a la Ron Wyden and Paul Ryan.

    6. An unpredictable maverick like Russ Feingold.

    7. Finally, the old school pork barrel politician. Someone who isn’t particularly keen on the issues but brings home the bacon. Pretty much any random politician fits this description the best example was “Senator Pothole”, Al D’Amato.

    There’s considerable overlap between these categories, but most politicians will earn there reputations for one of them. Which of these makes for the best politician/candidate?

    I would gladly pay you a dollar Tuesday, for a hamburger today

  10. WV-SEN Manchin 51% (D), Raese 35% (R) — Manchin gets 29% Of Republicans

    AZ-GOV Brewer 56% (R), Goddard 37% (D)

    AR-SEN Boozman 60% (R), Lincoln 35% (D)

    RI-GOV Chafee 37% (I), Capiro 30% (D), Robitaille 23% (R)

  12. To quote Natasha Simons’ “Alvin Greene is the great avant-garde performance artist of the 21st century.”

    Let’s see Dale Peterson or Carly “Demon Sheep” Fiorina top that!

  13. 2012:

    John Ensign 43% (R), Generic Democrat 45% (D)

    John Ensign 51% (R), Dina Titus 41% (D)

    John Ensign 48% (R), Cortez Masto 38% (D) (She’s the state Attorney General)

    From January PPP poll:

    John Ensign 47% (R), Ross Miller 36% (D), (The state secretary of state)

    John Ensign 49% (R), Shelley Berkley 40% (D)

    House polls in Nevada:

    The sample size was not big enough to release the precise numbers but NV-03 is a tossup, Heller should win easy in NV-02, and Berkley is Safe Dem in NV-01.

  15. one pro-life woman in the senate.  anyone know if ayotte is? if she’s not, there’ll hopefully be still one in the next senate, which would be kinda ridiculous.  i’m hoping fiorina, angle, norton don’t win obviously

  16. Target, the store, has donated $150k so far to help elect Tom Emmer.  The gays are pretty pissed, as am I.  I’ll be boycotting through election day, which is hard to do.  

  19. How big of impact can he have on the 2010 election? Brad Ellsworth announced today that he was going to give all of his Rangel money to charity, I assume he will not be the first. I think it could cost us some seats, and I would like him to resign.  

  20. I have been a reader of this website for about a year, and decided to koin today. Can anyone explain to me how you can creat a diary??????????????????

    I’ve been trying to figure it out for several hours, but still can’t.

  22. http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

    I was expecting resignation calls to start with Republicans, not Sutton. I’m surprised. I wonder if her’s will open a floodgate of Dem reps wanting to, largely to protect themselves, but worried about the reaction from Dem leaders if they did.  

  24. Does anyone remember the name of the crazy presidential candidate from 2008 who had the Basil Marceaux-esque website? I’m struggling to remember his name, I just remember that he was black.  

  25. What do ya’ll make of him? With Richmond and LaFonta struggling to raise money, could Dems turn to him? Are his connections to Jefferson an asset or a liability? I could see it working both ways. One, he might be able to raise a little more money than the other two since he was a former chief of staff to Jefferson and probably has some DC connections. However, is being tied to someone so corrupt that they elected a Republican to replace him going to hurt? I don’t think so, considering Dems re-nominated him twice. I think if he can raise money, some of the DC establishment might begin to support him. I’m just hoping he forces a run-off and wins 😉

  26. With Jim Webb going all Steve King/Tom Tancredo, is he vulnerable to a primary? I personally don’t think its that big of a deal, but for a Democrat, it may be. If Periello  loses this year, I could see him taking on Webb. Its not like he’d have much to lose.  

  27. Anyone know how old she is? She looks like she could be anywhere from her mid 30’s to 50. I can;t find anything anywhere on how old she is.  

  31. If you could save any five candidates who have lost from the 2000 election to now who would they be? There are rules of course, they can’t be from your state or any state you have ever lived in and no presidential candidates either. They do not have to be in any particular order unless you want to. Here is mine:

    Tom Daschle- He was a good Senator and his loss was embarrassing. Plus Thune has his job until he does not want it anymore.

    Inez Tenenbaum- Had she won in 2004 she would have saved us from one of the worst members of the United States Senate.

    Ned Lamont- I have never been that big on him but I HATE LIEberman. I do not see how you can be a member of the Democratic Party and vote for him. Even if you agree with him on foreign policy the pig supported McCain and tried his absolute best to bring down HCR.  

    Walter Mondale- Mondale’s loss was embarrassing as he was the former VP and all. Plus I can’t stand Coleman.  

    Max Cleland- His loss was so heartbreaking. Plus the way his opponent won is plain and simply disgraceful.

     

  33. For 2012, what is a Republican ticket you think would have the best chance of beating Obama? The ticket doesn’t have to be led by someone who is likely to run. It can be someone who won’t run if you think they’d be strong. For me, I’m gonna have to say a Petraeus/Portman (if he wins) or if not, Petraeus/Daniels.

    Petraeus is extremely popular and, if he ran, I think I’d be willing to say he’d be a very slight favorite against Obama if he runs a decent campaign. Portman brings Ohio, great fundraising skills, and a knowledge of the government outside of the military that Petraeus would need. Same for Daniels, who would take IN out of play (I doubt it even is in 2012). He could also boost Petraeus in Ohio and Michigan since he comes from a state bordering them.  

  34. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07…

    Willie W. Herenton, the former mayor, is accusing Steve Cohen, the white two-term United States representative, of “trying to act black.” He tells voters in this majority-black city that they “need to come off that Cohen plantation and get on the Herenton freedom train.”

    I can’t believe you can be considered a legitimate candidate by calling your opponent a plantation owner especially since Steve Cohen is an upgrade over Harold Ford Jr. who was using Memphis as a stepping stone to statewide office.

  35. This week of bad press for Tom Emmer will him proposing we pass a bill that we already passed and that he voted no on.

    Not quite sure what would be the worse strategy for him, be the tea-bagger he is and be honest about it and lose big, or try to hide his past, get caught up in his lies and lose big.

  36. has New Hampshire & California out this week. New Hampshire – They are polling Senate and Governor races. The House races of course, require a certain number of people to respond to be released publicly. California – Senate, Governor, Favorite Baseball Team, and probably some lower level races as well.

  39. When I;m doing a redistricting map and I have a district with the exact racial composition I was trying to get but you still need 20k more people, and its almost impossible to keep it the same!  

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