Some big, and possibly wonderful news. A local Colorado political blog has reported that all its signs and sources point to the RGA and Republican groups dropping serious efforts to pick up this Governorship. http://www.coloradopols.com/di…
One Republican consultant for a consulting group said, according to them, “We have no money,” and with the RGA not even paying for a “tracker” to follow Hickenlooper to his public events anymore, it seems they have given up on this race following McInnis’s game changing plagiarism charges.
I suspected this all along, but I still can’t believe some here brushed it off as a wine-track scandal, as even less of a big deal than Kirk’s minor embellishments, or Blumenthal’s consistently poor wording, or that voters would care about this less than if McInnis had had, say, an affair. Ridiculous. This is not a wine-track scandal and that’s become obvious. I think everyday, average joes still find it a turn off when they see a candidate was paid 300,000 dollars to write a series of essays, and then plagiarized large portions of them directly from another author; that is essentially cheating, scamming, even defrauding an employer for work you didn’t do, and I think no voter has a hard time being bothered by that.
However with McInnis firmly sticking to his guns and refusing to step out, Republican groups seem to be quietly cutting their losses. Hickenlooper has emerged from being a narrow underdog to being firmly in the drivers seat for the rest of the campaign. I’m personally ecstatic about this. This is a big deal, it gives Colorado Democrats complete control of the redistricting process, as they seem favored to control the state house, and, judging by a list of what Democratic seats are up in 2010, the State Senate is not really in play. That will allow them to shore up Betsy Markey and John Salazar while keeping Perlmutter, Polis, and DeGette safe.
What’s more is I’ve always been a fan of Hickenlooper, he’ll be a strong, and popular governor, capable of keeping Colorado on its Democratic trend. His record as Mayor of Denver is excellent, and he’s also a much more reliable progressive than Bill Ritter. This is great news for the future of the Colorado Democratic party, and it may even have a positive impact on the Senate race, where appointee Michael Bennett is in a fierce spot to get elected to a full term.
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But let’s not assume that Betsy Markey will be reelected. She has a very tough fight on her hands, wouldn’t you say?
I am curious, though, how Tom Tancredo would fare in a third-party bid. I suspect, if the GOP nominee is that flawed, he could pick up the bulk of Republicans.
But I think they’ll let him win the primary and then force him to drop for another candidate. And it’s not like the RGA doesn’t have money, they’re flush with cash. They’re probably just not spending any money right now because it would be a waste at this time.
In the end, I think Penry or someone will be the replacement candidate, and while it’ll definitely still be an uphill climb, I don’t know that I’d write this one off yet.
Is Tancredo even a member of the Constitution Party? Does he not realize for the sake of party unity and the chance to win this seat he should not even be considering this?
will eventually cut loose Sharron Angle in a similar manner. She has proven to be a disaster as a candidate, and they won’t want to waste any more money on her.
I want to believe that we win this seat. However the pessimist in me keeps me wondering. I mean I think the scandal is a BIG deal, I would never support a candidate who did this regardless of party. However I wonder if voters will really be that concerned, I am not for sure. The pessimist in me also says Maes could win, we was actually fairly competitive in the SUSA poll if I remember correctly. The pessimist also says that if it is clear voters care about this McCinnis will drop out after getting the nomination, and the Republicans do a Dick Blumenthal and nominate someone nearly unbeatable like former Governor Bill Owens or the Attorney General and we lose by ten points. I actually voted yes but I am still not completely sure. Time will tell.
According to Colorado Pols, if McInnis wins the primary as expected, he’s going to be asked by the powers that be in the Republican Party and the Republican Governor’s Association to step down. If he refuses to step down after that, they’re just not going to give him money. He’s all but done in this race.
The CO GOP is done. This whole Norton-Buck mess, added on top of Tancredo’s ultamatum and the two worst candidates for Governor you could ask for, Bennet and Hickenlooper will be swept into office, Hick in a landslide, Bennet by about 6-7 points.
makes me think of this South Park episode
http://www.southparkstudios.com/episodes/103603/
Tancredo is running as a constitution party candidate as of today, making the question of who the GOP candidate is almost irrelevant. Tancredo may not pull more than 5 points, but it sure looks like McInnis or whoever the GOP has will need those points.
Tancredo may also have the effect of making it harder for the GOP to find a replacement candidate since they will have to contend with Tancredo undermining his/her run.