Author: jwaalk

It took me a couple of tries to get a feel for the geography, but I finally came up with, what I feel, is a fantastic 7-3 map, and along the vein of what State Democrats should be considering.

Seattle Close up:

In essence I wanted to do two things, create a Democratic leaning new district, and eliminate Reichert while shoring all 5 current Democrats, to create a strong 7-3 map.

WA-01: To start, I tried to strengthen Norm Dicks a little bit. Not that I think he’d really have that much trouble; he’s fairly moderate, and he’s got an immense amount of incumbency, having represented the area for the last thirty-six years. The new district gave Patty Murray, (her 2010 race is actually great data because I think it represents the normal low point for a Democrat in Washington), 52.1% of the vote to Rossi’s 47.9%, a 12,000 vote margin. The district’s boundaries change a bit, and with Inslee running for Governor, (all but assured), I felt free to reconfigure that district and thus give the first all of Democratic leaning Kitsap, as well as Island and San Juan Counties from Larsen’s district. A small portion of King County that is across the bay is also included, and it helps push it a bit more to the right. This area has a lot of counties that are rather reliably Democratic, so there shouldn’t be any trouble for a competent Democrat to hold this district when Rep. Dicks retires.

WA-02: Technically I’m considering this Olympia-Vancouver district to be the newly created district. It’s not especially Democratic, though Senator Murray won it by 1.2%, or 3,000 votes. It’s likely more Democratic than it appears on the surface because Murray underperformed a bit in the Vancouver area. Rep. Herrera doesn’t live in this district, though her home is just a few miles outside. But the 3rd should be much more attractive and I don’t see her being able to win this WA-02 against a strong, moderate Democrat. I feel she would have lost this district in 2010, which represents a bit of a low point in the normal scheme for Democrats.

WA-03: This area is quite the vote sink, for Republicans. It gave Rossi 58.6% of the vote; which equated to a 40,000 vote margin. Jaime Herrera lives in this district, and represents a sizable portion of it at the present time. The major change is that it absorbs most of the suburban, Republican leaning areas of Pierce county.

WA-04: This is quite a bit of work I feel. It contains all of heavily Democratic Tacoma, plus some Democratic leaning King County suburbs, like Federal Way and parts of Des Moines. It also contains Dave Reichert’s home of Auburn, which means if he wants to seek reelection he’d have to run in a district that is 80% or so unfamiliar, against incumbent Rep Adam Smith who retains most of his territory, and in a district that gave Senator Murray 54.5% of the vote in the 2010 climate, (a 21,000 vote margin). Believe it or not this actually represents Representative Reichert’s best opportunity, even though it also nearly nil.

WA-05: Inslee’s district undergoes a lot of changes, but this shouldn’t be a problem since it will be an open seat. It retains a north King County base, with Shoreline and Redmond being the big centers, with a smidgen, 50k or so, of North Seattle, and then turns north to take in a large portion of Snohomish County. Overall, I’d say it might be a little more Republican than the current district, but Rossi still lost it 55.1-44.9, a healthy 27,000 vote margin for Senator Murray. I’d be surprised if Obama didn’t get around 60% here in 2012, which means its a huge stretch for Republicans to have a shot at it against a competent Democrat. To win it a Republican would have to get a big margin, (bigger than Rossi in 2010), out of Democratic trending Snohomish county, while, (and this is even more difficult to envision), holding down the Democrat’s margins in King County.

WA-06: This is my favorite part. The bulk of Rep. Reichert’s district is here, including the rural and exurban boondock parts of King County, and Republican-friendly Sammamish, (Dino Rossi’s stomping grounds I believe), and Issaquah. It also keeps Bellevue, and takes in Mercer Island and Renton. Most importantly about a quarter of the population of the district is in heavily minority southeastern Seattle. This created a district that gave Patty Murray 58.2% of the vote, a 43,000 vote margin. Dave Reichert has no chance here. Particularly in 2012, when Obama and Cantwell will both be pulling in 62+ percent here if my predictions are correct. In essence, both realistic options for him are extremely difficult and far-fetched. He could pursue a kamikaze run against Senator Cantwell, but I feel, particularly after the health problems he had this cycle and after the stress of 3 consecutive non-stop, competitive reelections, that Reichert will hang up his spurs and call it a day. That was my primary objective.

WA-07: This is Rick Larsen’s district. In 2010 he had a costly reelection campaign, and a massive has-been, (the guy he defeated by a 100 votes in back in the 2000 election for the open seat), held him to a 51-49 margin. I definitely felt that even with the district’s Democratic trend, (I’d say this, Reichert’s and Inslee’s are the only districts in WA you could truly say that about), something needed to be done to shore it up. But when all was said and done, I didn’t make that much of a a radical alteration. It continues to contain all of Whatcom and Skagit counties, the main difference is that it tendrils down Snohomish and takes in the most Democratic areas, enough to shift it about  three points to the left. The result it gave 54.2% to Senator Murray, (22,000 votes ahead of Rossi). It’s enough to where, with Rick Larsen in for the long-term, Democrats shouldn’t have any real issues barring scandals. This should be a pretty reliable district that any competent Democrat could hold.

WA-08: This is Jim McDermott’s district. It remains overwhelmingly Democratic. Not much to see here. It’s still Seattle-based, still 70+ Democratic. This district is Nancy Pelosi-level Democratic.

WA-09: I did what I could to keep this district from being totally off the table for Democrats, but it still pretty much is so. Dino Rossi got 58.3% of the vote here, though McCain’s margin was probably in the 7-9 point range. It doesn’t change that radically, and, barring any Democratic shift in Spokane county, will remain a Republican district.

WA-10: Doc Hastings’, (for some reason his name always makes me think of some 1950s Western TV show character. Thus my image of him is a of a hefty guy with a thick reddish beard and a flannel shirt with denim jeans and boots), district doesn’t change much either. It gave Dino Rossi 63.6% of the vote, a 54,000 vote margin. It’s hard to believe that Jay Inslee held a district with somewhat similar boundaries in the early 1990s, and even more surprising that he managed to get 48% in his 1994 reelection campaign. (I hope he can display that same kind of strength in the Cascades during his gubernatorial run). I’d be confused if Democrats don’t start making some headway into this district though; it has a massive and quickly growing Hispanic population; as it is it’s only 60% white, (total population), and has a Hispanic population of over 220,000 thousand.

I feel strongly that this an example of the kind of map that fulfills most requirements. It’s fairly loyal to communities of interest, its fairly compact, and at the same time it creates 6 relatively safe Democratic districts and leaves a 7th that Democrats should win under normal circumstances. Thus this is a +2 map for Democrats, which will go a long way towards helping them get back the majority in the House of Representatives.

And as a final note, I’m usually curious about what kind of response/audience I get for something like this, that a fair amount of effort went into, and so can I please ask you to vote in my poll so that I have a counter of sorts to see how many readers I get.

Everyone so far it seems has gotten a little carried away with Gerrymandering Maryland. I’ve even seen some outrageous 8-0 maps. With both the Governorship and both houses of the legislature held by Democrats, another Democratic gerrymander is inevitable, particularly with the state having gotten even more Democratic over the last decade.

However, I was interested in pursuing a gerrymander that didn’t look so outrageous, as the current one does, unfortunately. The fact that the current map looks like it does is even more outrageous because it is utterly unnecessary that it look so discontinuous and spindly, (Sarbanes’, Ruppersberger’s and district all look line vines that have grown wild over the state of Maryland). I made a point to reduce the clutter, and to reduce county-splitting while making a completely reliable 7-1 map.  

First notice how I didn’t go wild with MD-01, (blue), like some have been doing. It doesn’t traverse the entire state and mishmash rural middle class white voters from Kent County with rich suburban black voters in Prince George’s County, (the most ridiculous thing I’d seen in a while), no, with only superficial tweaking, (does the district look that radically different to you?), I cut 7 percentage points out of McCain’s vote total, taking from 58-40 to 51-47; which also, incidentally, wipes out the totality of the margin that Harris was able to get there in this the best Republican year in a generation; what’s more I cut out the areas that Harris performed strongest, (suburban Baltimore and northern Hartford), and left a greater emphasis on counties where Kratovil over-performed the most, in addition the portion of Anne Arundel is much larger, and more Democratic. So basically, I created a swing district that would firmly favor Kratovil, particularly seeing as how his base in the upper central part of the East Shore is now also the most Republican part of the district. (Surprisingly the southern reaches of far-right Hartford County are diverse and Democratic leaning). Without radically gerrymandering, or tossing in communities of disparate interests, I managed to create a favorable district that favors a Kratovil rematch, (and draws Harris completely out of it in fact). I don’t think you can gerrymander better than that.

MD-01: 134,186 McCain, (51%), 124,315 Obama, (47%). 79% White, 16% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic, (compared to previous 58-40 McCain, 85.5% white).

Maryland’s Second Congressional District is really a masterpiece; I’m quite proud at how I managed to pack in almost every hardcore Republican area in the state into one district. It runs along the panhandle, across the state into northern Baltimore and Hartford counties. I figure that Andy Harris will probably run in this district rather than face Kratovil in the First. It will either be open, (Bartlett will be 86 on Election Day, 2012), or he can primary Bartlett for being far to moderate for such a hard-right district. In any case I shifted the old district five points to the right, pretty much through that shift alone accounting for my seven point shift in MD-01.

MD-02: 190,590 McCain, (63%), 106,803 Obama, (35%), 93% White, 4% Black.

Perhaps the most disgustingly gerrymandered district in the country is John Sarbane’s. It looks like a clusterfuck of sorts, a spasmodic tendril growing wild over central Maryland and taking in parts of some 6 counties, (counting Baltimore City). It’s simply crazy, and, what’s more, utterly unnecessary. As you can see, the new 3rd, (which does not contain John Sarbane’s home, though claiming a different residence is a trivial move to make, if Maryland even has a residential clause), occupies a solid space in north-central Maryland, taking in a southeastern portion of Montgomery County, northern reaches of Anne Arundel, and all of Howard County, (including the more Republican northern reaches). Howard County has reliable Democratic lean, that ranges from, (as in the 2010 Gubernatorial race), from considerable, to overwhelming, (2008 Presidential Election), and of course the county is trending Democratic at a fairly steady rate. The Anne Arundel portions have a moderate Republican lean of 9-20 points depending on the election, and these are balanced of course by the heavily Democratic portions of Montgomery county which are reliably Democratic. All in all, the current district voted for Obama by more than 20 points, and gave O’Malley at least a 7 point margin over Ehrlich by a conservative calculation. Sarbanes should have little trouble holding onto it, and what’s more it should give him a solid base should he run for Senate in 2016, (though I suspect he would have some intense competition, perhaps from Van Hollen or Donna Edwards).

MD-03: 164,854 Obama, (59%), 109,923, McCain, (39%), 69% White, 16% Black, 7% Asian, 6% Hispanic, (compared to 77.3% White previously).

Nothing much to see here. I took in southern Frederick County; which has been ‘infected,’ (using paranoid Conservative hate-talk), with liberals spilling out of Montgomery County. It’s no longer a Republican stronghold, (McCain won it 50-48), and the fact that Ehrlich only managed to win it 54-42 over O’Malley is telling. The southern portion, including the city of Frederick, is significantly more diverse and Democratic leaning, the portion now in Van Hollen’s district gave Obama a 54-45 margin and should only get more Democratic. Of course the district is still concentrated in Montgomery County, (though it loses the Prince George’s portions, though seriously, even an attempted Connie Morella comeback couldn’t hope to get more than 40% of the vote in this district). Rockville and other areas of Montgomery are overwhelmingly and reliably Democratic. This is still a 2:1 Obama district that gave O’Malley a twenty to thirty point margin as well. The other upside for Van Hollen is that this district gives him a slightly better springboard for statewide office, including as it does a shift into swingier areas.

MD-04: 173,988 Obama, (66%), 83,776 McCain, (32%), 69% White, 9% Black, 10% Asian, 9% Hispanic, (previously 62% White).

Baltimore Close-Up:

While Dutch Ruppersberger’s district isn’t exactly beautiful now, it is at least considerably better and more compact than it is currently. It contains some heavily African American precincts in southwestern Baltimore County, plus carves out the white areas of Baltimore City, which also have a heavy Democratic lean. My main goal was to make a district that not even a Republican politician with a base in white Baltimore County voters, like Bob Ehrlich, could win in an open seat situation in a Republican leaning year. In other words, I wanted primarily to ensure that this district, like MD-03 and MD-04 would not be going Republican barring extraordinary circumstances. I succeeded, to put it simply. In every set of my goals; from making it more Democratic to making it look less ridiculous, (though I also think that Ruppersberger actually lives a few miles outside of this district in a Republican leaning precinct in central Baltimore County, however like I said with Sarbanes such problems are quite trivial in the bigger picture).

MD-05: 177,253 Obama, (66%), 87,651 McCain, (32%), 68% White, 25% Black.

Again, not much going on with Elijah Cummings’ district. It becomes slightly more Republican, (taking in some mostly white, wealthy, overwhelmingly Republican precincts in southeastern Baltimore county that were previously mostly in MD-01), and it’s actually slightly more Black, (about 2% more so than previously). Simply put the changes are rather superficial. This is still about as heavily Democratic a district as you can find, and completely following the VRA and representing the black community in central Maryland around the Baltimore area. I can see no objections that could be found with it.

MD-06: 179,598 Obama, (78%), 47,910 McCain, (21%), 61% Black, 35% White.

Prince George’s County Close Up:

That third map should clarify the boundaries around that area, which because of the colors are rather fuzzy on the wider view. Steny Hoyer’s district changes a bit, but the top lines and demographics aren’t all that different. It doesn’t take in a considerable portion of southern Prince George’s County anymore, but it still contains most of the basis of the old district; all of Charles, (steadily diversifying and growing more Democratic from over-spill out of Prince George’s), St. Mary’s, Calvert, and western Anne Arundel, (the latter three all of having a significant conservative lean). It reaches up and takes in a sizable portion of heavily Democratic, diverse Prince George’s county, the northern portions really, as well as the very bottom sections of Montgomery, (which are diverse and heavily Democratic as well). The result is a district that is still quite reliably Democratic, and which Hoyer shouldn’t have any trouble holding nor any Democrat after him.

MD-07: 159,947 Obama, (61%), 98,368 McCain, (38%). 65% White, 22% Black, 4% Asian, 6% Hispanic, (previously 60% White, 30% Black).

With MD-08 there really is nothing to see or talk about, (except the numbering being different and the fact it no longer does a ridiculous and pointless loop up into Montgomery County, with the two sections connected by a tiny thread, why Maryland Democrats felt the need to make such a gerrymandered looking district out of such overwhelmingly Democratic territory I’ll never understand). The district has a larger percentage of Black voters than before, and is as Democratic as ever. I fail to see any objections local pols might have to such a commonsense adjustment.

MD-08: 232,589 Obama, (92%), 18,494 McCain, (7%). 69% Black, 18% White, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian, (previously 56.8% Black, 27.6% White, 7.5% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian).

So, in nutshell that is the gerrymander I would strongly support being enacted. For one, it doesn’t look like the brutally effective gerrymander that is, and maintains effectively communities of interest, (meaning there isn’t the fallout or controversy provoked by the last map), and it maintains 6 safe Democratic seats while putting forth one heavily Republican district and one flat out swing district. The 6 Democratic Districts can divided out as such, Overwhelmingly Democratic, (6th, Cummings, 8th, Edwards), strongly Democratic, (Van Hollen, 4th, Ruppersberger, 5th), and moderately Democratic, (3rd, Sarbanes, 7th Hoyer). I’m confident that not only is this map safe and effective, but for a Gerrymander it is also relatively fair and noncontroversial in look. (I considered adding my thoughts on Maryland, providing a rudimentary political analysis of the different regions, but as a college student I have other work to move on to and must quit playing around, and this piece here is long enough, so I will continue other thoughts later, at different time in a different place). Thanks for reading and I’m always interested in your feedback.  

I’m gonna be quick on commentary for now, (got to get back to college work and quit fooling around with piddling little bits of politics), but I’ve been messing around with Colorado, reading bits on its politics and trends, and trying to make the best map possible for Democrats, (as they seem more likely than not to control the trifecta). After a few tries, this is what I came up with:

Sorry about the lack of numbers, an oversight on my part. As for political data, the only district I calculated was teh purple, the current version of John Salazar’s 3rd district. I managed to, if my vague guestimations and additions are right, to shift it a bit to the left, from 50-48 McCain, to 51.5-48.5, in Obama’s favor.

As for the rest, I lopped off the vast, 75% Republican rural areas from the 4th, instead making a diverse, Fort Collins-Greeley-Longmont-Thornton district that would certainly have a considerable Democratic lean, (getting bigger all the time), and that Betsy Markey would be a great fit for. (Red)

The 2nd, Green, changed a bit, and is perhaps a few points to the right of where it used to be, but it’s still safely in the Democratic corner, I even gave it a portion of the whiter, South Denver areas as well to add Democratic votes to it.

The 7th, Gray, takes in Commerce City, parts of Thornton, Lakewood, Wheat Ridge, Golden, Westminister, Brighton, heavily black portions of north Denver, and rural Weld and Adams counties plus conservative Morgan County. It’s very diverse, with a 30% hispanic population, and probably even more Democratic than it currently is.

The 1st, (blue), is maybe 6-10 points more Republican, but considering it gave Obama 75% to begin with, it can afford to lose a little. It’s got a large minority population; 49%, and is probably still very Democratic, in the 66-68% range.

Of the two Republican districts, the 5th, yellow, is about 57% McCain, and the 6th is now about 60-61% McCain.

Anyway, that’s what I came up with, sorry for the haste. I think it is a fairly logical example of what Democrats would do if they controlled the trifecta, even if, godforbid, Salazer and Markey don’t survive. It certainly makes its easier for them to make political comebacks in 2012.  

I’ve finally decided to take the plunge into a series entries on the House, my take on them and beyond. I’m starting with the West Coast, California, Oregon, Washington, plus Hawaii.

Hawaii:

HA-01: I don’t know how the pundits are kidding themselves here, I really don’t. Polling is really underestimating Hannabusa, and people are somehow, (CQpolitics, I’m looking at you), ignoring the fact that the number of votes she received, practically unopposed, in the Democratic primary a month ago, amounted to 51% of the total votes cast in the 2006 GENERAL Election. The total number of votes cast for Democrats in that primary amounted to 62% of the total number of 2006 votes cast in the General. So basically, in justifying this as a toss up, these pundits are saying that the conservative Djou will win every Democratic primary voter that didn’t vote for Hannabusa, plus benefit from a massive spike in normal midterm turnout, that also heavily benefits him. Sorry, it just ain’t happening. Hannabusa is comfortably ahead and has plenty of resources plus the strong backing of the Inouye party machine and popular local district Representative Abercrombie at the top of the ticket in a competitive race. Djou has lots of money and a good local profile, so he might be able to make it closer than it should be; but unfortunately for him that means he loses 55-45, instead of 60-40.

Washington:

WA-08: I’m calling it right now. This is my prediction for the unexpected upset, the late developing race that surprises people. Suzan Delbene has been a great fundraiser, and from what I’ve heard, a tireless campaigner. She’s finally up all over the air, and Reichert, as many have noted, is not getting his usually support and cover from the Seattle Times and other local media outlets. What’s more is that voters are concerned about his vitality, and he has been campaigning very lightly since a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in mid-summer. This is a Democratic leaning district, though one with a lot of moderates that like to toss in some Republican votes here and there, and which settle the balance.

Unfortunately for Reichert though, the trend in Pierce and especially King, is undeniably towards Democrats. On a local level Republicans have been undercut and Democrats have for the first time started to have a general edge. Delbene comes off as young, energetic, and likable, and now that’s gone into the General Election mode, seems to be really making up for name recognition. It will be very close, but I think she will win by a few thousand votes, then during redistricting her district will be shifted, made more techie, and entirely based in the inner suburbs of Seattle, giving Reichert a new 8th, (should he want a comeback), one that includes the outer half of King, plus rural/suburban parts of Thurston and Pierce, and counties like Lewis and Pacific. But that’s a big ‘if’; whether Reichert would run in that well-tuned district. A major part of why his lead is dissolving is that, it seems, from my outside perspective, like his heart just really isn’t in it anymore, and that’s he thoroughly tired of these constant, stressful, barn-burner elections.

WA-03: For a while it seemed like time to write this off. But Republicans seem to be taking it for granted. The national party hasn’t waded into the field yet, and for that reason Herrera is floundering. A low double digit lead has dwindled into a low single digit one as Heck, who saved his resources till post-primary, has blasted her, making use of his 7:1 cash advantage. He’s been hitting the district hard on a nonstop campaign tour, while, from what I read, Herrera hasn’t been out and around much. This race is tightening, the best hope of course is that outside groups don’t come in and aid Herrera until it’s too late. I think this is shaping up to be a surprise hold, and Heck, a conservative Democrat, is really a better fit for this swingish, middling district than Herrera is. The only thing bothering me about this race is why Brian Baird retired, especially this year, this cycle, adding to the burdens of Democrats. He’s only 54, (Heck is actually older by 4 years), and he would have had a fairly easy time winning again had he stuck it out for just one more cycle.

WA-02: Washington, for once, is a hot spot for house races, after a few dull cycles with only WA-08 around. WA-02, like WA-08, leans Democratic rather reliably, and it certainly seems to be getting more Democratic like the rest of WA, as Republicans have lost considerable ground there between 2000, when it was a flat up swing district, to 2008 when Obama won it by double digits. Even Kerry improved substantially here and since his close initial race Rick Larsen has won easily.

The main Democratic candidates won a majority of the vote in the Washington Primary, and since then Larsen hasn’t seemed to be taking anything for granted. He’s got a cash advantage and he’s using it, and he seems to be slowly pulling himself ahead. The big thing really is if Murray will be able to narrowly win this district, which, judging by Rossi’s past races, he’s typically underperformed WA-02 slightly compared to his state totals. Basically, if Murray wins, she will be at around 51-52 percent in WA-02. Right now Murray looks like she’s in a good position, but somehow, inexplicably, Rossi is holding on, despite hits to his favorables and a very shaky campaign so far, (one that has alienated many of the past power groups and business groups in WA that have provided him with critical support). Maybe it’s just the environment…

I don’t believe Adam Smith is in any trouble. Particularly if takes heed and starts running ads and campaigning. His margin might be smaller, 55-56 percent instead of 60-something percent.

California:

CA-03: Ami Bera is running a great campaign, he’s raised huge bucks, and he’s serving as the first really strong challenger Lundgren has received. Unfortunately he’s not running in 2008, or he’d be favored. Democratic turnout will be lower, and both Whitman and Fiorina will win CA-03 by high single digits to low double digits. While Lundgren, who is originally from South California, isn’t particularly popular locally, I suspect the environment and top of the ticket Republican coattails will pull him over the finish-line. However, this district is going Democratic, and I would say at one of the fastest rates of any of the Republican-held seats in California. Just keeping the current lines, I think Bera would win in a 2012 rematch with Obama at the top of the ticket and higher turnout.

As it is, this Democrats will hopefully be able to shift this district significantly to the right; simply shifting Yolo back into it and dropping some of the outer reddish suburbs alone would be enough to send Lungren packing.

CA-11: This race feels close. But again, CA-11 is trending Democratic, at about the same pace as CA-03. That’s why McNerney was able to knock off Pombo and win by a larger than expected margin against a highly touted Republican candidate in 2008. The environment sucks this time, and if Dean Andal had run again, I would be hard-pressed to bet against him winning. However he’s not; instead they have district hopping David Harmer, a guy who’s about like Pombo, only maybe a little more conservative, and a little more abrasive. He’s raised big bucks, but that doesn’t change the fact he’s made some pretty offensive statements during the course of the campaign and McNerney has established himself pretty well over the past two terms and looks set to get the crossover votes from Whitman-Fiorina that he will need to get 50%, (they’ll almost certainly win his district narrowly, unless they both completely implode and end up around 40%). I’m just grateful he’s up against the brusque and unpolished Harmer who is a terrible fit for this district.

CA-18: Dennis Cardoza is in trouble, but so long as he realizes it he should be okay. His district’s burgeoning Hispanic population is sending it further into the Democrat’s camp, and Cardoza is a relatively moderate Democrat who has run and won tough campaigns before. The problem this year is local issues particularly stirring up Conservatives and sentiment against Democrats, and the fact Hispanic turnout won’t be anywhere near what it was in 2008. That means the electorate here will be more like the 50-50 electorate. Luckily he has a third tier opponent with few financial resources, and can outspend him and turn the corner on him campaign wise. Still, around a 55-45 race if he does this.

CA-44: This will be closer than people are expecting, but Hedrick doesn’t have the resources or the environment to pull it off, despite the rather stunning Democratic trend of this district and it’s general tepidity towards Calvert.

CA-45: I am more bullish on this one though. Another race where I say, in 2008, it’s a Democratic pick up. Now? It stays Republican, but narrowly. Bono Mack will actually have to work hard for reelection this time. Steve Pougnet is a compelling candidate with a strong base of support to compete with Bono Mack in Palm Springs, (the district’s population center). He has plenty of money as well, but not the right environment. In 2012 though Democrats will hopefully be able to, (assuming the proposition on the ballot right now fails), shift a few more points to the left and set up a favorably rematch.

CA-48: Again, again, wrong cycle. Even so Beth Krom hasn’t impressed me too much. Her fundraising has been lackluster, and she would have needed 1-1.5 million to run a highly visible and effective campaign in this urban district. She has a fantastic profile and base of support, and really seems to be an ideal candidate for 2012, assuming a little tinkering is done to make the job easier.

CA-47: Similar to CA-18. This district is closer to 50-50 with low Hispanic turnout. And unlike in CA-18 Republicans have a legitimate and well funded candidate in Assemblyman Van Tran. The only things Democrats have for them is Loretta Sanchez’s considerable local popularity, if it’s still holding up. She’s been around this area for a while, and has fought very hard to shift it towards Democrats and is fairly popular among moderates. She can win in a 50-50 electorate if she doesn’t make anymore mistakes and campaigns hard.

I’m not buying the arguments for competitive races in CA-50.

Oregon:

OR-05: Democrats seem to consistently win this district, just not by much. Darlene Hooley won 6 terms with the following percentages, (starting from 1996 onto 2006), 51.24%, 54.71%, 56.77%, 54.75%, 52.86%, 53.99%, and was followed by Kurt Schrader’s 54.34%. Republicans have a pretty reliable base here; even Erickson’s mess of a campaign mustered almost 40%, which is probably the floor for any credible Republican running here. Therefore I don’t have trouble believing State Representative Scott Bruun is competitive right now. But I also think that Democrats have a consistent 52% of the vote here. That might dwindle down closer to 50% in this poor environment, but Kurt Schrader is a better candidate and a better campaigner than Darlene Hooley ever was.

The biggest challenge for Republicans here is that OR-05 isn’t as swingish/conservative as it used to be. Clackamas is considerably more friendly to Democrats now, than say, it was in 2002, though Marion and Polk remain tough. Schrader should be able to pull it off though, he seems to be running a good campaign and even Republican polling has tended to show him narrowly ahead. What’s more, Kitzhaber seems to have staunched the bleeding and is inching ahead of Dudley, who has a bad few months down the stretch of the campaign. This race will be close, but I think that closeness is rather superficial; covering up a reliable Democratic coalition that is able to win this district, normally, despite occasional exceptions like Gordon Smith, (who was far more liberal and well-known than Bruun though).

I am highly skeptical of any claims that Reps David Wu or Peter DeFazio are remotely vulnerable. Both might see their normal margins take a slight hit, but that’s fairly inconsequential.

Conclusion:

The West Coast looks to be in good shape for Democrats, should current trends continue, and national conditions condition their apparent easing. The micro-climate here is, in my opinion, overriding the national one. I have been annoyed by some people talking about delusional optimism among all of us who aren’t wailing, and don’t begin every tag with, “Abandon Hope all ye who enter here.”

There are critical differences between 2010 and 2006. For one, in 2006 Democrats were actually a popular alternative, people were reacting positively to the Democratic counter-message. That’s not so this time, there is strong opposition from liberals and moderates against the Republican platform and as a whole people actually dislike the Republicans more than they dislike Democrats in poll after poll. That’s not the kind of thing which sets a party up for sweeping gains.

What’s more is that people aren’t taking into account that a big part of Democratic successes in 2006 was recruiting good candidates who were good fits the key districts, and ran great, well-funded campaigns. This cycle one can look at numerous districts where Republicans have poor fits running, or underfunded campaigns, (ala Herrera). The micro-climate stinks for them, quite frankly.

Then there is an additional element which doesn’t get mentioned and that’s the fact that the LV models seem to be shaky this time around. Turnout among Democrats could end up being higher than expected, and what’s more, there’s a critical underlying factor on the generic ballot. Mainly, Republicans are ahead nationally because of a massive lead in the south. Breakdowns I’ve seen have had Democrats essentially tied or just barely behind in the midwest and the west, down by like 18 in the south, and ahead by 9 or so in the northeast.

So yes, I am optimistic. I’m thinking in terms of 25-30 losses. And none of them on the West Coast, where, in fact, I believe Democrats should gain one seat overall when all is said and done.

My next region is the America West. Idaho, (Does Minnick need to be worrying about taking this race for granted?), Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona. Other previews are that I think Representative Harry Mitchell is marginally favored, and Ed Perlmutter needs to start paying attention and responding. Until then, to paraphrase Ron Burgundy, Stay Classy SSP.  

Some big, and possibly wonderful news. A local Colorado political blog has reported that all its signs and sources point to the RGA and Republican groups dropping serious efforts to pick up this Governorship. http://www.coloradopols.com/di…

One Republican consultant for a consulting group said, according to them, “We have no money,” and with the RGA not even paying for a “tracker” to follow Hickenlooper to his public events anymore, it seems they have given up on this race following McInnis’s game changing plagiarism charges.  

I suspected this all along, but I still can’t believe some here brushed it off as a wine-track scandal, as even less of a big deal than Kirk’s minor embellishments, or Blumenthal’s consistently poor wording, or that voters would care about this less than if McInnis had had, say, an affair. Ridiculous. This is not a wine-track scandal and that’s become obvious. I think everyday, average joes still find it a turn off when they see a candidate was paid 300,000 dollars to write a series of essays, and then plagiarized large portions of them directly from another author; that is essentially cheating, scamming, even defrauding an employer for work you didn’t do, and I think no voter has a hard time being bothered by that.

However with McInnis firmly sticking to his guns and refusing to step out, Republican groups seem to be quietly cutting their losses. Hickenlooper has emerged from being a narrow underdog to being firmly in the drivers seat for the rest of the campaign. I’m personally ecstatic about this. This is a big deal, it gives Colorado Democrats complete control of the redistricting process, as they seem favored to control the state house, and, judging by a list of what Democratic seats are up in 2010, the State Senate is not really in play. That will allow them to shore up Betsy Markey and John Salazar while keeping Perlmutter, Polis, and DeGette safe.

What’s more is I’ve always been a fan of Hickenlooper, he’ll be a strong, and popular governor, capable of keeping Colorado on its Democratic trend. His record as Mayor of Denver is excellent, and he’s also a much more reliable progressive than Bill Ritter. This is great news for the future of the Colorado Democratic party, and it may even have a positive impact on the Senate race, where appointee Michael Bennett is in a fierce spot to get elected to a full term.  

Well I recently attempted to redistrict my home state of Louisiana. And having way too much time on my hand and finding redistricting with Dave’s App to be rather fun, I couldn’t just redraw it once, so I did it three times, (really more like 20, but there are only three important ones); one compromise, reasonable map, a Democratic Gerrymander, and then the merely absurd.  

First let me display my compromise map:

This is basically a 4-2 map; however Representative Fleming could be vulnerable. If Democrats were to nominate a candidate from Lake Charles, like Willie Mount, they could turn the corner on that geographic divide. If that Democrat were also capable of getting a double digit margin out of Caddo, while winning De Soto, Red River and keeping Webster 50-50 basically, they could win. It’d be a tall order, but it’s possible, and I drew it with that in mind. Also, fun little note, this district perfectly matched the population requirement, by random one in a thousand fluke, 0 voters over or under.

Oddly enough I also see a possibility for a Democrat to win the new LA-05, should some far-right Republican like State Senator Neil Riser unseat Rodney Alexander in a primary and Democrats had a strong, Bobby Bright level conservative Democratic State Senator or DA in the wings. Buddy Caldwell would actually be an ideal candidate for this seat.

The new LA-06, Rep Boustany’s seat, is technically possible. Democrats recently narrowly held onto a State Senate District covering Houma and Lafourche in a special election. It gave McCain over 70% of the vote, yet a Democrat, who admitted that he voted for Barack Obama, won the special and could possibly serve as a future candidate. Any Democrat that wins Terrebonne and Lafourche, along with the more Democratic Parishes of Iberia, St. Mary and St. Martin, would have a good chance of countering the Vermillion-Lafayette Parish Republican vote. Willie Mount would hold this seat now if it weren’t for the stupid run-off system, (poor election scheduling has cost Louisiana Democrats 3 seats in the last 3 cycles).

Okay. I made this LA-03 for Don Cazayoux. I admit it. It’s tailored for him. It’s about 43% black, heavily Democratic on a local level, (the white voters are more liberal here than elsewhere and Landrieu would have gotten some 60% of the vote here). Even Michael Jackson trying to play spoiler here wouldn’t be able to stop him from winning this time around, (Cassidy won with a plurality of votes last time).

Then of course there is the “Abandon all hope, all ye Democrats that enter here” district in LA-01. While it is possible for a conservative local Louisiana Democrat to win Tangiopha and Washington Parishes, it is not possible for them to win Livingston and ST. Tammany.

This LA-02 is fairly Democratic; St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes are significantly more favorable to conservative local Democrats than national ones, (and let’s face it, we aren’t getting a progressive out of this seat, not with all the machine Democrats being conservatives). It’ll still be an easy hold, though thankfully Cao will already be gone; because he could have possibly survived in this district. It is not majority black, but it is plurality minority which would hopefully sustain VRA mandates.

Now time for the juicy Democratic Gerrymander, the nightmare of GOPVOTER, hehe:

Anyone familiar with Louisiana politics sees the wonderful, elegant beauty of that map. It neatly assures that Fleming will lose reelection by making his district 48% minority and only 52% white, it includes a 43% black population which is simply too much for a southern Republican to survive, especially against a conservative White Democrat capable of getting 30% of the white vote combined with 90% of the black vote. He would never have won in the first place without Sabine, Vernon, Grant, and Beauregard parishes bailing him out.

My new LA-06 draws Rodney Alexander and Charles Boustany into one district, (though technically Alexander lives in Fleming’s district now, no matter, it’s not hard to move a few miles or change claimed residences), with the new district perhaps favoring Alexander a little bit.

Again I drew a district just for Don Cazayoux. Combing the primarily black areas of Lake Charles, north Lafayette and St. Landry with the large black population in Pineville-Alexandria and Hammond over on the other end of the district. It also contains such Democratic bastions as Point Coupee, Iberville, St. Helena with Democratic leaning parishes such as St Martin, Evangeline and Allen. The result is a district that probably gave McCain 56% of the vote or so, but with it’s large black population and the specific white areas it contains, is tailor made for a conservative white Louisiana Democrat like Don Cazayoux.

What’s more is that by tying in the black voters of Baton Rouge I managed to save the south Louisiana, Cajun district for Democrats. As the Iberia, St. Mary, and East Baton Rouge parish portions of the district should be enough to override St. Bernard’s, Plaquemines, Lafourche and Terrebonne, particularly with a Democrat who can narrowly win Lafourche and hold down the margins elsewhere.

This LA-04 is even more a “Abandon all hope all ye who enter district”. I reckon it’s close to an 80% McCain district and just as hopeless for any Louisiana Democrat. My LA-03 on the other hand, is 50% black, keeping the VRA requirements by the skin of its teeth and remaining fairly liberal, and at least a double digit Obama district and probably about 65% for Landrieu in 2008, so fairly safe for any competent Democrat.

Finally, there were those who said it would be very difficult to make two VRA districts in Louisiana, (in actuality it is pretty easy and not even that ugly). So I set out, having too much time, to do the eye-poppingly impossible: make three VRA districts in Louisiana, and somehow, I did it.

Here, my friends, is the absurd:

Don’t ask me how in the hell I did this, but I did it. Districts 1, 2 & 3 are all 50-52 percent black.

After Mark Critz narrowly held on to PA-12 for the Democrats I began considering redistricting plans. Right now I expect Democrats to narrowly hold on to the State House of Representatives, and I see the Governor’s race as no worse than a toss up, with, in my opinion, Onorato having the advantage over Corbett, due to simple geography. Corbett has only barely won two tight races against second tier candidates before, while this time he’s up from against a candidate with a strong base in Southwestern Pennsylvania. No Republican can win statewide in PA anymore without holding Democrats to a very narrow margin in the SW corner of the state. Corbett is floating along in the Philly suburbs right now based on nothing more than name recognition, and the liberal lean of those areas will eventually bite him once Onorato gets his message out and points out how out of line Corbett’s views are with this blue state, (he joined the campaign to challenge the new health care laws for Christ’s sake).

So, assuming Democrats held those two areas I would figure Republicans in the Senate would pretty much have to acquiesce, I know in Indiana that however holds two of the three is able to control redistricting.

What I decided to do was mainly incumbent protection.

That is what I did to the Southeast corner of the state. First off I kept Reps Brady and Fattah in basically the same district. I might have made Fattah’s a few percentage points more black, and Brady’s a few percentage points more white.

Unfortunately there are no PA partisan numbers available yet for Dave’s Redistricting App, so I was largely left to guesswork. But my intentions were to help Patrick Murphy. He gets all of Bucks County, and the remaining population requirements are filled by a small, (and hopefully heavily Democratic), tendril of southern Montgomery County and northeastern Philadelphia.

I was fed up with the jumbled look Montgomery County had, so I cleared up the boundaries of PA-04 and PA-06, (Schwartz’s and Gerlach’s districts). PA-04 should be basically the same, partisan leanings wise, while PA-06 might have inadvertently gotten more Republican, though I did my best to change that by taking in the cities of Reading and Lancaster proper with two narrow tendrils. Both those urban areas have a fairly strong Democratic lean, (I can assume), and add a significant minority population to the district, (mostly Hispanic). So hopefully it’s current Democratic leanings, 58-41 Obama, are preserved.

CD-17 and CD-18 are basically preserved as districts that gave McCain double digit wins, or something close to that.

Now for two of the districts that I have calculated, as best I can, the new Presidential numbers.

First is the new PA-07, built for savvy Rep Tim Holden who defeated George Gekas in the biggest upset of 2002. I decided to give him a Democratic leaning swing district by taking Dauphin County, (where he seems to have established quite nice base and political machine the past decade), his home area of Pottsville in Schuylkill County, and Allentown/Lehigh County.

The result is, as carefully as I can measure it:

New District: Obama: 55%, McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama: 48%, McCain 51%

However there is a minor flaw in those numbers, which is that I simply had to figure out how much population of this district was in Schuylkill, then find what percentage of the county’s total population that was, and, making turnout and voting patterns even, take that percentage of the total votes cast in the district to get numbers for the new PA-07’s portion of Schuylkill.

I know Charlie Dent is from Allentown. It is irrelevant. I’m being aggressive here. One I expect him to lose this time around, and two, even if he doesn’t I don’t think he can beat a savvy, moderate Dem like Holden in this district. Not only did Obama win it by double digits, (and will be on the ballot again in 2012), but all the Republican areas that he needs to win are Holden’s base and are places he’s never represented before. Dent has never impressed me with his political skills, and in a difficult campaign, during a Presidential year, against a savvy, moderate Dem like Holden, I don’t think he could even win Lehigh County, (his base). Thus one Republican in the PA map is gotten rid of, and a more reliably Democratic seat is created along the edge of Central Pennsylvania.

The next one I want to discuss is a district that I made for John Callahan/Paul Kanjorski. I expect Kanjorski to lose at the moment, and Callahan to win, so this district is technically more tailored to Callahan and intended to retire Kanjorski if he somehow survives yet again.

Here the political numbers for this new PA-08:

New District: Obama: 56%, McCain: 44% w/o Luzerne County. Estimate 55.5% Obama.

Old District: Obama: 57%, McCain: 42%

And I admit the Luzerne numbers are a complete guess. I just assumed Hazelton was more conservative, and thus put areas I guess to be closer to 55% Obama in this district to keep up the Democratic lean. I think it would be difficult for this district to be won by a Republican.

Now my wider map looks like this:

The new PA-09 is my proudest creation on this entire map. I secured a Republican area, pushing it over into the realm of Democratic leaning swing district, and tailor made it for Chris Carney to defeat another Republican in the state’s delegation, Lou Barletta, who I expect to win.

New District: Obama: 52.7%, McCain: 47.3% w/o Luzerne County, I estimate that it’s 51-48 Obama.

Old District: 54% McCain, 45% Obama

Again those estimates are largely geographical guesstimates based on the overall political leanings of Luzerne County. Still Barletta has his work cut out for him. Most of the district would be new to him, and he’d be left only with with his Hazeltown base. It keeps Scranton, which is bad news for Barletta because it really singlehandedly kept Kanjorski in office this last cycle. Even worse is that Carney has dominated the outer, more conservative areas of Lackawanna County, and I can only imagine what he’ll do with the entire County.

It’s again a Tim Holden like case, on paper the Republican seems to have a chance, but the problem is all the Republican/swingish to conservative areas he needs to win are not his turf, but the Democrats. Carney has won Wayne and Pike in the past, and has a political base in Susquehanna County, and has also won Columbia. It’s another case where I can’t see the Republican managing to steal these new voters away from their Representative of more than half a decade.

Next I made an effort to help Kathy Dahlkemper. This is also one of my proud, thinking outside of the box moments. Whereas her old district went for McCain by a few hundred votes, her new district looks like this:

New District: Obama: 53.8%, McCain: 46.2%

Old District: McCain 49%, Obama: 49%

A full four point shift. It remains an Erie based district, and it extends outward into more conservative areas like Crawford and Warren that she would likely need to win, but I also went out into rural central Pennsylvania, adding Elkhart County, which is a traditional, old school Democratic county, (it even went for McGovern in 1972), and more importantly Democratic trending Centre County, which gave her a big boost.

Not having political data of course completely ended any attempts for me to do what I needed to in the Southwest corner. My intentions are quite simple; no matter how ugly it looks I wanted to split up Doyle’s 70% Obama Pittsburgh based district and create three 55% Obama districts in order to hold that area down for Democrats for another decade. Mark Critz probably got the best deal, getting the southern half of Cambria County, including Johnstown, while losing the outer and more Republican areas to Murphy, and then getting a large swath of black neighborhoods in north Pittsburgh, while Doyle gets a Washington-Fayette-Green based district along with southeast Allegheny and a good sized portion of Pittsburgh, including his base.

Meanwhile CD’s 15, 16 and 11 are all made 60+ percent McCain districts that Democrats have no shot at ever competing in.

As a whole I think this is a damn good map, and it tackles ever weak spot or want of Democrats in PA while also aggressively taking out a pair of Eastern PA Republicans.  

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll the Florida Gubernatorial race, which had seemed to be slipping away, is now narrowing as CFO Alex Sink is now with four points of Attorney General Bill McCollum, who leads 40-36.

One of the first things to take away from the poll is that McCollum’s right-wing pandering leading the charge to overturn the HCR Bill has hurt him in the general, with 38% saying it makes them less likely to support his bid, and 54% of voters saying he should not be suing to try to repeal the bill.

Independent voters especially have panned the move:

The Quinnipiac University poll released Monday found 41 percent of independent voters said the challenge would make them less likely to vote for McCollum, compared with 27 percent who said they were more likely to vote for him.

http://www.google.com/hostedne…

Meanwhile Sink continues to tout her Economic Plan, attempting to woo moderates:

“I’m going to bring my business career to Tallahassee,” said Sink, former president of Bank of America Florida. “That is our future.”

 

http://www.tampabay.com/news/p…

I can’t tell yet if Sink is going to quit going at McCollum with kiddie gloves and running a Craig Deeds-esque campaign or if she is going to start slamming him for his right-wingery and presenting herself as a true viable alternative for ordinary voters while also shoring up support from progressives by campaigning on Democratic principles, a crucial two-prong campaign she has to run to win statewide: get the independent vote, and get the progressive Demographics to show up. Kendrick Meek running should definitely help her by driving turnout among black voters.

I hope to hear in the near future about her launching a new campaign direction and taking on a new tone. This polls gives new hope, and if she can start running a stronger campaign we have a strong chance to pick up this crucial gubernatorial race, with the teacher pay fiasco also blowing up in the face of Florida conservatives, invoking the wrath of teachers and education groups across the state. Sink is well positioned to tap that as well.

It’s was just revealed about an hour ago that Representative Dave Reichert WA-03 has been hospitalized in D.C. for a Subdural Hematoma, (the same unrealized injury that killed Natasha Richardson). Current indicators are that he is expected to make a full recovery and will be released from the hospital in a few days.

The cause of the injury was vague, and the only information given was that it was do to an unspecified minor head injury. Certainly we all hope that Rep. Reichert is okay.

These kinds of health scares are not minor things and they can be life-changing. These shocks can definitely change a person’s entire outlook on life.

At this point there is no current affirmation whether Rep. Reichert will continue his run for reelection, but he could very well be reevaluating it during this period of recovery, depending on whether any long-term damage occurred.

I hope Representative Reichert is able to make a full recovery, and more information should arrive shortly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c…