Everyone so far it seems has gotten a little carried away with Gerrymandering Maryland. I’ve even seen some outrageous 8-0 maps. With both the Governorship and both houses of the legislature held by Democrats, another Democratic gerrymander is inevitable, particularly with the state having gotten even more Democratic over the last decade.
However, I was interested in pursuing a gerrymander that didn’t look so outrageous, as the current one does, unfortunately. The fact that the current map looks like it does is even more outrageous because it is utterly unnecessary that it look so discontinuous and spindly, (Sarbanes’, Ruppersberger’s and district all look line vines that have grown wild over the state of Maryland). I made a point to reduce the clutter, and to reduce county-splitting while making a completely reliable 7-1 map.
First notice how I didn’t go wild with MD-01, (blue), like some have been doing. It doesn’t traverse the entire state and mishmash rural middle class white voters from Kent County with rich suburban black voters in Prince George’s County, (the most ridiculous thing I’d seen in a while), no, with only superficial tweaking, (does the district look that radically different to you?), I cut 7 percentage points out of McCain’s vote total, taking from 58-40 to 51-47; which also, incidentally, wipes out the totality of the margin that Harris was able to get there in this the best Republican year in a generation; what’s more I cut out the areas that Harris performed strongest, (suburban Baltimore and northern Hartford), and left a greater emphasis on counties where Kratovil over-performed the most, in addition the portion of Anne Arundel is much larger, and more Democratic. So basically, I created a swing district that would firmly favor Kratovil, particularly seeing as how his base in the upper central part of the East Shore is now also the most Republican part of the district. (Surprisingly the southern reaches of far-right Hartford County are diverse and Democratic leaning). Without radically gerrymandering, or tossing in communities of disparate interests, I managed to create a favorable district that favors a Kratovil rematch, (and draws Harris completely out of it in fact). I don’t think you can gerrymander better than that.
MD-01: 134,186 McCain, (51%), 124,315 Obama, (47%). 79% White, 16% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic, (compared to previous 58-40 McCain, 85.5% white).
Maryland’s Second Congressional District is really a masterpiece; I’m quite proud at how I managed to pack in almost every hardcore Republican area in the state into one district. It runs along the panhandle, across the state into northern Baltimore and Hartford counties. I figure that Andy Harris will probably run in this district rather than face Kratovil in the First. It will either be open, (Bartlett will be 86 on Election Day, 2012), or he can primary Bartlett for being far to moderate for such a hard-right district. In any case I shifted the old district five points to the right, pretty much through that shift alone accounting for my seven point shift in MD-01.
MD-02: 190,590 McCain, (63%), 106,803 Obama, (35%), 93% White, 4% Black.
Perhaps the most disgustingly gerrymandered district in the country is John Sarbane’s. It looks like a clusterfuck of sorts, a spasmodic tendril growing wild over central Maryland and taking in parts of some 6 counties, (counting Baltimore City). It’s simply crazy, and, what’s more, utterly unnecessary. As you can see, the new 3rd, (which does not contain John Sarbane’s home, though claiming a different residence is a trivial move to make, if Maryland even has a residential clause), occupies a solid space in north-central Maryland, taking in a southeastern portion of Montgomery County, northern reaches of Anne Arundel, and all of Howard County, (including the more Republican northern reaches). Howard County has reliable Democratic lean, that ranges from, (as in the 2010 Gubernatorial race), from considerable, to overwhelming, (2008 Presidential Election), and of course the county is trending Democratic at a fairly steady rate. The Anne Arundel portions have a moderate Republican lean of 9-20 points depending on the election, and these are balanced of course by the heavily Democratic portions of Montgomery county which are reliably Democratic. All in all, the current district voted for Obama by more than 20 points, and gave O’Malley at least a 7 point margin over Ehrlich by a conservative calculation. Sarbanes should have little trouble holding onto it, and what’s more it should give him a solid base should he run for Senate in 2016, (though I suspect he would have some intense competition, perhaps from Van Hollen or Donna Edwards).
MD-03: 164,854 Obama, (59%), 109,923, McCain, (39%), 69% White, 16% Black, 7% Asian, 6% Hispanic, (compared to 77.3% White previously).
Nothing much to see here. I took in southern Frederick County; which has been ‘infected,’ (using paranoid Conservative hate-talk), with liberals spilling out of Montgomery County. It’s no longer a Republican stronghold, (McCain won it 50-48), and the fact that Ehrlich only managed to win it 54-42 over O’Malley is telling. The southern portion, including the city of Frederick, is significantly more diverse and Democratic leaning, the portion now in Van Hollen’s district gave Obama a 54-45 margin and should only get more Democratic. Of course the district is still concentrated in Montgomery County, (though it loses the Prince George’s portions, though seriously, even an attempted Connie Morella comeback couldn’t hope to get more than 40% of the vote in this district). Rockville and other areas of Montgomery are overwhelmingly and reliably Democratic. This is still a 2:1 Obama district that gave O’Malley a twenty to thirty point margin as well. The other upside for Van Hollen is that this district gives him a slightly better springboard for statewide office, including as it does a shift into swingier areas.
MD-04: 173,988 Obama, (66%), 83,776 McCain, (32%), 69% White, 9% Black, 10% Asian, 9% Hispanic, (previously 62% White).
Baltimore Close-Up:
While Dutch Ruppersberger’s district isn’t exactly beautiful now, it is at least considerably better and more compact than it is currently. It contains some heavily African American precincts in southwestern Baltimore County, plus carves out the white areas of Baltimore City, which also have a heavy Democratic lean. My main goal was to make a district that not even a Republican politician with a base in white Baltimore County voters, like Bob Ehrlich, could win in an open seat situation in a Republican leaning year. In other words, I wanted primarily to ensure that this district, like MD-03 and MD-04 would not be going Republican barring extraordinary circumstances. I succeeded, to put it simply. In every set of my goals; from making it more Democratic to making it look less ridiculous, (though I also think that Ruppersberger actually lives a few miles outside of this district in a Republican leaning precinct in central Baltimore County, however like I said with Sarbanes such problems are quite trivial in the bigger picture).
MD-05: 177,253 Obama, (66%), 87,651 McCain, (32%), 68% White, 25% Black.
Again, not much going on with Elijah Cummings’ district. It becomes slightly more Republican, (taking in some mostly white, wealthy, overwhelmingly Republican precincts in southeastern Baltimore county that were previously mostly in MD-01), and it’s actually slightly more Black, (about 2% more so than previously). Simply put the changes are rather superficial. This is still about as heavily Democratic a district as you can find, and completely following the VRA and representing the black community in central Maryland around the Baltimore area. I can see no objections that could be found with it.
MD-06: 179,598 Obama, (78%), 47,910 McCain, (21%), 61% Black, 35% White.
Prince George’s County Close Up:
That third map should clarify the boundaries around that area, which because of the colors are rather fuzzy on the wider view. Steny Hoyer’s district changes a bit, but the top lines and demographics aren’t all that different. It doesn’t take in a considerable portion of southern Prince George’s County anymore, but it still contains most of the basis of the old district; all of Charles, (steadily diversifying and growing more Democratic from over-spill out of Prince George’s), St. Mary’s, Calvert, and western Anne Arundel, (the latter three all of having a significant conservative lean). It reaches up and takes in a sizable portion of heavily Democratic, diverse Prince George’s county, the northern portions really, as well as the very bottom sections of Montgomery, (which are diverse and heavily Democratic as well). The result is a district that is still quite reliably Democratic, and which Hoyer shouldn’t have any trouble holding nor any Democrat after him.
MD-07: 159,947 Obama, (61%), 98,368 McCain, (38%). 65% White, 22% Black, 4% Asian, 6% Hispanic, (previously 60% White, 30% Black).
With MD-08 there really is nothing to see or talk about, (except the numbering being different and the fact it no longer does a ridiculous and pointless loop up into Montgomery County, with the two sections connected by a tiny thread, why Maryland Democrats felt the need to make such a gerrymandered looking district out of such overwhelmingly Democratic territory I’ll never understand). The district has a larger percentage of Black voters than before, and is as Democratic as ever. I fail to see any objections local pols might have to such a commonsense adjustment.
MD-08: 232,589 Obama, (92%), 18,494 McCain, (7%). 69% Black, 18% White, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian, (previously 56.8% Black, 27.6% White, 7.5% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian).
So, in nutshell that is the gerrymander I would strongly support being enacted. For one, it doesn’t look like the brutally effective gerrymander that is, and maintains effectively communities of interest, (meaning there isn’t the fallout or controversy provoked by the last map), and it maintains 6 safe Democratic seats while putting forth one heavily Republican district and one flat out swing district. The 6 Democratic Districts can divided out as such, Overwhelmingly Democratic, (6th, Cummings, 8th, Edwards), strongly Democratic, (Van Hollen, 4th, Ruppersberger, 5th), and moderately Democratic, (3rd, Sarbanes, 7th Hoyer). I’m confident that not only is this map safe and effective, but for a Gerrymander it is also relatively fair and noncontroversial in look. (I considered adding my thoughts on Maryland, providing a rudimentary political analysis of the different regions, but as a college student I have other work to move on to and must quit playing around, and this piece here is long enough, so I will continue other thoughts later, at different time in a different place). Thanks for reading and I’m always interested in your feedback.
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the first person to read it voted that it wasn’t an effective gerrymander. They also don’t appear to have posted an explanation as to why they think it isn’t.
and probably the best choice. However, because the MD Dems don’t have (and shouldn’t have) a “clean looking lines” fetish, they can draw a more effective map.
There should be 7 districts won by Obama by at least 10 points.
Except that while I tried my best to “clean up” the boundaries and preserve two African-American majority districts (I wanted full VRA compliance), I didn’t end up changing too much.
– MD-01 ended up as a 57-41 McCain district, but it also ended up as a mostly Eastern Shore district, so Kratovil shouldn’t be totally shut out of this district.
– MD-02 ended up as a 62-36 Obama district that runs smoothly from the northern Baltimore City neighborhoods to the Baltimore County suburbs immediately east and north.
– I admit I had to get a little more creative with MD-03, but that ended up as a 61-38 Obama district that runs from Annapolis down to some of the Prince George’s (DC) suburbs down to Charles, St. Mary’s, and Calvert county shores.
– MD-04 is 58% African-American, 73% overall minority-majority, almost all Prince George’s County (with just a few Anne Arundel precincts thrown in, to help balance out MD-03), and 86-13 Obama.
– OK, OK, I also had to get a little more creative with MD-05. But ultimately, I decided to stretch it from the western and southwestern Baltimore County suburbs southward to eastern Howard County and northwestern Anne Arundel County, to the northeastern Montgomery County (DC) suburbs. The lines are funny, but they’re still more compact and rational than the current gerrymander. It’s now a 64-34 Obama district.
– MD-06 didn’t change too much, other than perhaps some new northern Montgomery County precincts. It’s still a 58-40 McCain district.
– MD-07 is 53% African-American, 58% overall minority-majority (VRA compliance here), and is mostly Baltimore City… Except for a few nearby Baltimore County and Anne Arundel precincts thrown in. It’s a 76-23 Obama district.
– And finally, MD-08 is now entirely Montgomery County, forming more of a compact oval spanning from Silver Spring and Bethesda to just past Germantown at the Frederick County line. It’s a 73-25 Obama district.
Hopefully when I can upload my screenshots, I can give you a better sense of what these districts look like.
You managed to combine a sensible, logical gerrymander with a map that still allows the people to pick their representatives instead of the other way around. I’m a big fan of the communities of interest argument, and I think you demonstrated a way to uphold that ideal without committing unilateral disarmament.
Unfortunately, they might not be inclined to move Sarbanes’ district so far away from his house, but he represents a lot of that territory anyway, so he could probably move and introduce himself to new voter if he wants to.
I think we need to keep that in mind. While Obama’s vote total is famously not a maximum in certain parts of the state, expecting a district to mirror those results is going to be overly optimistic most of the state.
For MD-01 to do what it did in 2008…it took a Presidential election in a Democratic year, a nasty and divisive GOP primary leading to removed a longtime incumbent in favor of a very unappealing Republican candidate, and a strong Democratic candidate with a perfect profile, who got the blessing of said incumbent. Two years later, even the same lousy Republican candidate cleaned up, including on most of the Shore, when the situation changed.
The margin of defeat for this year’s MD-01 was quite a bit bigger than many analysts and pollsters expected. What this tells me is that either we’re willing to be at least a little “brutally effective” or that we’re willing to tolerate 2 Republican-held districts for the forseeable future and making our job of taking back the House (against a force that has no qualms about redistricting shenningans to boot) that much harder.
If the concern is cutting down the black population in the PG-County-based VRA district…it’s really not, outside of straight compliance, an issue. Heck, Donna Edwards probably owes her primary win over Albert Wynn to Montgomery County progressives of all races. Even very white parts of MoCo have demonstrated their eagerness to vote for black candidates….they just want nothing to do with PG County or its famously dysfunctional county government.
The other issue is a 3rd district that also stretches a long way. Even though the shapes and lines are more pleasing to the eye, it sprawls just as much and creates a very split media-market district, which the current 3rd really isn’t (Columbia and Odenton are borderline) unless you consider Annapolis a separate market. Also, a map that purports to group together communities of interest that runs from Pasadena to downtown Silver Spring….
It is a mistake to somehow believe that a district centered in Howard County and drawing in significant and diverse portions of Montgomery and Anne Arundel counties is somehow an elegant solution to the “communities of interest” approach.
In terms of MD politics and community identity, the split (in addition to racial) is really between Baltimore-identifying and DC-identifying. They are two distinctly different media and economic markets.
Building a district that straddles the 2 metropolitan areas is doing something very new and different to the existing 3rd district, which is distinctly Baltimore-centered construct.
Perhaps population shifts will require creating a new district that straddles the DC/Baltimore divide (thereby eliminating a Baltimore-centric district) – but that should only be done if demographics dictate it, not just because it looks a little better on the map.
But I think the 7-1 approach, throwing Harris’s Baltimore county base in with Bartlett, absorbing parts of Frederick into Van Hollen’s district, etc all makes sense. A very good start at a good Maryland map.
..not crazy about putting the East Side of Baltimore County in the designated VRA district.
Currently the extra territory that MD-07 grabs is the parts of Howard County not in MD-03. The problem with that from a Democrat’s POV is that you’re wasting too many Democrats in places like Columbia.
The East Side looks like a GOP bastion…if you’re looking at Obama/McCain data. But there’s much more to the story. From what I can tell about this area, they did not like Obama much but are often quite willing to vote for local Democrats. (The 6th legislative district, which includes most of this area, was the only “Kerry-McCain” district in MD.) In 2006 Michael Steele way underperformed there relative to Bob Ehrlich.
The evidence suggests that that are unlikely to care much for Eli Cummings or anyone else the rest of this district would choose for their representative, but are perfectly fine with Dutch Ruppersberger and probably wouldn’t mind John Sarbanes either.
Not that any of this would prevent Cummings from winning this district…but if you’re going to bring in hostile voters, it seems like less of a waste to bring in voters who vote against Democrats regardless. You can find those in northern and central Harford County, in pretty much all of Carroll County, or in northern Anne Arundel County.
Looking to the data it is obvious what the republicans are taking advantage of the redistricting process. Between all the 435 house seats, 194 are D+, 9 are EVEN, and 232 are R+ districts following the Cook Partisan Voting Index. That mean it is easier for the republicans win the majority in the US House cause of the current redistricting.
In the 23 rated as EVEN or D+ they are 78 US House districts with R+ rate. The republicans will hold 71 of these districts and the democrats 7 after the elections.
In the 27 states rated as R+ they are only 50 D+ or EVEN districts. The democrats will hold 46 and the republicans will hold 4 (FL-22, OH-01, OH-12 and OH-15).
The democrats has the chance of Gerrymander Maryland and Illinois. It is necessary to do it for down the advantage what the republicans have from previous Gerrymander.
This is outrageous for me, not a 8-0 map for Maryland.
This is my 8-0 map for Maryland with at 59% Obama or plus districts, but they are more options:
is, as usual, gerrymandering. MD-08, despite being heavily democratic, was until 2002 represented by a very moderate republican, Connie Corella. She was often described as the most liberal republican in the house, being very liberal on social issues while moderate on economic issues (which is a perfect fit for Montgomery Co), and being the only republican to vote against BOTH Iraq wars in 91 and 02. But the Dem-controlled MD general assembly wanted to beat her, so they gerrymandered in a few heavily democratic and mainly black PG county precincts while giving MD-04 some parts of MontCo that had previously been in Morella’s district (and were her base in many of her previous elections, as she had represented some of these areas in the House of Delegates). This was a large part of why Chris Van Hollen defeated her in 2002. Van Hollen very narrowly carried the Montgomery Part of the district (due to some of Morella’s strongest areas being given to MD-04), but he overwhelmingly won the few precincts in PG County, giving him a 52-47 victory overall.
but we can do better. There is no reason why we should have less than an 8D-0R map.
and short of continuing the existing districts, this is probably the next most mild thing we could do to Republicans. I’d say the GOP would actually be relieved if this is the worst we do to them in Maryland.
So I’d tend to agree with some other commenters here that we ought to push a little harder. An 8-0 map probably is inadvisable, at least not until 2022 perhaps. Stretching Bartlett’s panhandle district into Montgomery county or into Baltimore does look pretty ridiculous and would probably be the equivalent of stretching tendrils out of Chicago districts downstate to soak GOP voters. Totally opposed communities of interest. Still, we are going to get burned badly elsewhere and we will need to make it up somehow.
The far easier target (as you recognize) is shifting the Eastern Shore district to make it more tenable for a Democrat. You did well without having it drop right into Baltimore like others suggested, but I think we should still aim to get an Obama majority in this district somehow. If Kratovil doesn’t run again, it’s a tough win for us given McCain’s 4% margin of victory here.
I think many of you fear “dummymanders” too much. But note that a “dummymander” is only likely to backfire in a year where the Democrats weren’t going to win the House anyway. If control of the House rests a handful of seats, then the Democrats are probably winning by a small margin nationwide (thanks to current Republican incumbency advantage + gerrymandering + natural packing of Democrats). In such an event, seats that tilt Democratic in a neutral environment would lean Democratic in that environment, and that’s good enough to maximise your chances of winning the House.