Washington: 7-3

It took me a couple of tries to get a feel for the geography, but I finally came up with, what I feel, is a fantastic 7-3 map, and along the vein of what State Democrats should be considering.

Seattle Close up:

In essence I wanted to do two things, create a Democratic leaning new district, and eliminate Reichert while shoring all 5 current Democrats, to create a strong 7-3 map.

WA-01: To start, I tried to strengthen Norm Dicks a little bit. Not that I think he’d really have that much trouble; he’s fairly moderate, and he’s got an immense amount of incumbency, having represented the area for the last thirty-six years. The new district gave Patty Murray, (her 2010 race is actually great data because I think it represents the normal low point for a Democrat in Washington), 52.1% of the vote to Rossi’s 47.9%, a 12,000 vote margin. The district’s boundaries change a bit, and with Inslee running for Governor, (all but assured), I felt free to reconfigure that district and thus give the first all of Democratic leaning Kitsap, as well as Island and San Juan Counties from Larsen’s district. A small portion of King County that is across the bay is also included, and it helps push it a bit more to the right. This area has a lot of counties that are rather reliably Democratic, so there shouldn’t be any trouble for a competent Democrat to hold this district when Rep. Dicks retires.

WA-02: Technically I’m considering this Olympia-Vancouver district to be the newly created district. It’s not especially Democratic, though Senator Murray won it by 1.2%, or 3,000 votes. It’s likely more Democratic than it appears on the surface because Murray underperformed a bit in the Vancouver area. Rep. Herrera doesn’t live in this district, though her home is just a few miles outside. But the 3rd should be much more attractive and I don’t see her being able to win this WA-02 against a strong, moderate Democrat. I feel she would have lost this district in 2010, which represents a bit of a low point in the normal scheme for Democrats.

WA-03: This area is quite the vote sink, for Republicans. It gave Rossi 58.6% of the vote; which equated to a 40,000 vote margin. Jaime Herrera lives in this district, and represents a sizable portion of it at the present time. The major change is that it absorbs most of the suburban, Republican leaning areas of Pierce county.

WA-04: This is quite a bit of work I feel. It contains all of heavily Democratic Tacoma, plus some Democratic leaning King County suburbs, like Federal Way and parts of Des Moines. It also contains Dave Reichert’s home of Auburn, which means if he wants to seek reelection he’d have to run in a district that is 80% or so unfamiliar, against incumbent Rep Adam Smith who retains most of his territory, and in a district that gave Senator Murray 54.5% of the vote in the 2010 climate, (a 21,000 vote margin). Believe it or not this actually represents Representative Reichert’s best opportunity, even though it also nearly nil.

WA-05: Inslee’s district undergoes a lot of changes, but this shouldn’t be a problem since it will be an open seat. It retains a north King County base, with Shoreline and Redmond being the big centers, with a smidgen, 50k or so, of North Seattle, and then turns north to take in a large portion of Snohomish County. Overall, I’d say it might be a little more Republican than the current district, but Rossi still lost it 55.1-44.9, a healthy 27,000 vote margin for Senator Murray. I’d be surprised if Obama didn’t get around 60% here in 2012, which means its a huge stretch for Republicans to have a shot at it against a competent Democrat. To win it a Republican would have to get a big margin, (bigger than Rossi in 2010), out of Democratic trending Snohomish county, while, (and this is even more difficult to envision), holding down the Democrat’s margins in King County.

WA-06: This is my favorite part. The bulk of Rep. Reichert’s district is here, including the rural and exurban boondock parts of King County, and Republican-friendly Sammamish, (Dino Rossi’s stomping grounds I believe), and Issaquah. It also keeps Bellevue, and takes in Mercer Island and Renton. Most importantly about a quarter of the population of the district is in heavily minority southeastern Seattle. This created a district that gave Patty Murray 58.2% of the vote, a 43,000 vote margin. Dave Reichert has no chance here. Particularly in 2012, when Obama and Cantwell will both be pulling in 62+ percent here if my predictions are correct. In essence, both realistic options for him are extremely difficult and far-fetched. He could pursue a kamikaze run against Senator Cantwell, but I feel, particularly after the health problems he had this cycle and after the stress of 3 consecutive non-stop, competitive reelections, that Reichert will hang up his spurs and call it a day. That was my primary objective.

WA-07: This is Rick Larsen’s district. In 2010 he had a costly reelection campaign, and a massive has-been, (the guy he defeated by a 100 votes in back in the 2000 election for the open seat), held him to a 51-49 margin. I definitely felt that even with the district’s Democratic trend, (I’d say this, Reichert’s and Inslee’s are the only districts in WA you could truly say that about), something needed to be done to shore it up. But when all was said and done, I didn’t make that much of a a radical alteration. It continues to contain all of Whatcom and Skagit counties, the main difference is that it tendrils down Snohomish and takes in the most Democratic areas, enough to shift it about  three points to the left. The result it gave 54.2% to Senator Murray, (22,000 votes ahead of Rossi). It’s enough to where, with Rick Larsen in for the long-term, Democrats shouldn’t have any real issues barring scandals. This should be a pretty reliable district that any competent Democrat could hold.

WA-08: This is Jim McDermott’s district. It remains overwhelmingly Democratic. Not much to see here. It’s still Seattle-based, still 70+ Democratic. This district is Nancy Pelosi-level Democratic.

WA-09: I did what I could to keep this district from being totally off the table for Democrats, but it still pretty much is so. Dino Rossi got 58.3% of the vote here, though McCain’s margin was probably in the 7-9 point range. It doesn’t change that radically, and, barring any Democratic shift in Spokane county, will remain a Republican district.

WA-10: Doc Hastings’, (for some reason his name always makes me think of some 1950s Western TV show character. Thus my image of him is a of a hefty guy with a thick reddish beard and a flannel shirt with denim jeans and boots), district doesn’t change much either. It gave Dino Rossi 63.6% of the vote, a 54,000 vote margin. It’s hard to believe that Jay Inslee held a district with somewhat similar boundaries in the early 1990s, and even more surprising that he managed to get 48% in his 1994 reelection campaign. (I hope he can display that same kind of strength in the Cascades during his gubernatorial run). I’d be confused if Democrats don’t start making some headway into this district though; it has a massive and quickly growing Hispanic population; as it is it’s only 60% white, (total population), and has a Hispanic population of over 220,000 thousand.

I feel strongly that this an example of the kind of map that fulfills most requirements. It’s fairly loyal to communities of interest, its fairly compact, and at the same time it creates 6 relatively safe Democratic districts and leaves a 7th that Democrats should win under normal circumstances. Thus this is a +2 map for Democrats, which will go a long way towards helping them get back the majority in the House of Representatives.

And as a final note, I’m usually curious about what kind of response/audience I get for something like this, that a fair amount of effort went into, and so can I please ask you to vote in my poll so that I have a counter of sorts to see how many readers I get.

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