We’re back from a successful Netroots Nation, and in the midst of sweeping up from half a week of limited posting, we’re going to do a polls-only digest first and tackle the rest of the damage later today.
• AK-Sen (pdf): Local pollster Ivan Moore is out with the first (and probably only) public look at the Republican primary between incumbent establishment figure Lisa Murkowski and Tea Party fave (and proxy for foxy GOP doxy Sarah Palin) Joe Miller. Y’know what? Alaskans know that their local economy is largely propped up with federal dollars, and the teabagger message isn’t likely to have much resonance here, no matter how much pro-gun posturing it gets dressed up in. The poll finds Murkowski with 53/29 positives, and a 62-30 lead over Miller.
• FL-Sen, FL-Gov (pdf): The Attack of the Shady Billionaires seems to continue unabated, as they pour even more money into advertising. PPP looks at both of their primaries. It’s still a close race in the Democratic Senate primary, where Rep. Kendrick Meek leads the yacht-crashing Jeff Greene 28-25 (with Tom Jensen observing “Democratic voters seem uninterested in this election,” with many of them already having settled on Charlie Crist). In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Columbia/HCA-crashing Rick Scott is in firm control, though, leading AG Bill McCollum 43-29. McCollum’s favorables among Republicans are a horrible 26/40, while Scott’s are 35/32.
• KY-Sen: Another public poll places the Kentucky Senate race in near-dead heat territory. Braun Research, on behalf of local politics website cn|2, finds Rand Paul with a 41-38 lead over Jack Conway. Conway has substantial leads among moderates (52-18) and among women (43-36).
• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon camp and the NRSC exchanged fire over the last few days, issuing dueling internal polls with dramatically different takes on their races. Melancon struck first with an Anzalone Liszt internal showing a much closer race than anyone has seen before: David Vitter led Melancon only 44-43 (the previous A-L internals had 10-point spreads). The NRSC responded with a POS poll over the weekend, giving Vitter a more predictable 48-31 lead when including leaners. Maybe more importantly, this poll is the first look at the GOP primary, and it shows Vitter may not have too much trouble with it: he claims a 76-5 lead over Chet Traylor.
• NC-Sen: Here’s one more Democratic internal that really serves to shake up what’s been considered a Republican-leaning race. The Elaine Marshall camp released a poll from Lake Research last Thursday giving her a 37-35 lead over Richard Burr (with 5 to Libertarian Mike Beitler). Burr’s favorables are 34/43, and he has a re-elect of 25/31, numbers no incumbent would like to see.
• GA-Gov (pdf): I have trouble believing this one, but maybe Nathan Deal, who seems to be staking out more conservative turf than Karen Handel, is consolidating more of the votes of the various primary losers than is Handel. Deal is out with a new internal, from McLaughlin & Associates, giving him a 39-38 lead over Handel in the GOP gubernatorial (or goober-natorial, in Georgia) runoff. 56% of respondents say Deal is conservative, while 35% say Handel is and 30% call her a moderate.
• MI-Gov: A new poll of the Democratic primary from Inside Michigan Politics gives a different result from just about everybody else: they give a significant lead to Virg Bernero, who leads Andy Dillon 36-22. The article is strangely silent on other details about the poll, especially the issue of sample size, where Inside Michigan Politics has been pushing the limits of credibility.
• OK-Gov: SoonerPoll.com, on behalf of the Tulsa World, is out with what’s probably the last word on the gubernatorial race before this Tuesday’s primaries. Tuesday night looks to be pretty drama-free: on the Dem side, AG Drew Edmondson leads LG Jari Askins 49-33 (up from a 10-point gap in their previous poll, way back in January). For the GOPers, Rep. Mary Fallin leads state Sen. Randy Brogdon 56-18 (which is actually a drop for Fallin from the last poll). They also look ahead to November matchups, finding Fallin leading Edmondson 47-39 and Askins 46-40.
• TN-Gov: The Tennessee primary will also be fast upon us, and Mason-Dixon, on behalf of the Tennessee Newspaper Network, takes their first look at the GOP gubernatorial primary there. Like other recent polls, they give the edge to Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, who’s at 36. Rep. (and now, apparently, aspiring secessionist) Zach Wamp is at 25, and Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey is at 20. (All three candidates are from the eastern third of the state, and western Tennesseeans are disproportionately undecided (29%). That would tend to benefit the biggest advertiser, which is Haslam.) Mason-Dixon also tried out November matchups, finding Dem Mike McWherter looking DOA against the sorta-moderate Haslam, 49-31, but in closer races against the more strident Wamp (45-38) and Ramsey (43-38).
• PA-03: There’s one House internal to mention, and, as has been the trend lately, it’s from a Republican. It’s from a race that been on most people’s back-burners; we’ll have to see if this raises auto dealer Mike Kelly’s profile. Kelly’s own poll, via the Tarrance Group, give him a 48-37 lead over freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper.
• Rasmussen
• AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 50%, Jim Keet (R) 40%
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 35%, John Boozman (R) 60%
• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 37%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 56%
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 35%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%
• FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 34%, Charlie Crist (I) 36%
• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 43%, Nathan Deal (R) 49%
• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 44%, Karen Handel (R) 45%
• ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 53%
• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 46%, Rick Berg (R) 49%
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Rick Lazio (R) 27%
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%
• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 37%
• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 33%, Victor Moffitt (R) 18%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 36%
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 35%
Is garbage. This one is even worse, with a sample size of 87. Ballenger tried to defend it by saying that with Grebner’s lists “he knows exactly how each of these people will vote.” I’m sorry, but you just can’t poll with a sample size under 300. The odds of getting a sample that isn’t representative are simply too high.
There was also a Republican half to the poll, with a sample size of 125 or so. It showed Hoekstra in the lead in the low 20s, Snyder at 19 or so, then Cox a point behind him.
I watched the panel you guys had with Kos, and when AZ-Gov. came up, I was disappointed that was not discussed. The only thing that was said was Kos thinking that the race is winnable. I fail to see the logic of that statement. Since Brewer signed that immigration bill, she’s been on fire. She’s actually gotten enough political capital to endorse other candidates (i.e. Karen Handel)
It may be the only thing working for her, but it’s working. She may not win in a landslide, but she’s going to win, unless there’s a sex scandal somewhere we don’t know about. I only wish Kos elaborated more on his statement.
that Handel and Deal rip each other to shreads. Reclaiming a governorship in a year like 2010, especially in a Red state, would be great for Democrats.
http://blogs.denverpost.com/th…
Wow that is an improvement for us. It looks like the race it is still winnable. Probably lean R though but still I think a lot of people had it at likely R for a while so it is nice to see poll numbers like that.
Anzalone Liszt probably has the best reputation among internal pollsters for Southern Democrats, and possibly the best general pollster for Southern races more generally at this point. If their internals for Melancon show a solid surge over their previous ones, I’m inclined to believe them, especially because they’re rather specific on which voters are turning against Vitter (unmarried white women) and why (the whole women’s-issues-guy-knifing-his-girlfriend issue).
Admittedly, I have been among the most optimistic of posters on Melancon’s chances, but I just really hope I get to say “I told you so” a lot on this one because I think we all agree that the Senate would be better off without Diaper Dave.
Seems like some very good news for us lately:
The implosion of the Colorado governor’s race almost assures us a victory there, and very likely helps out with the senate and congressional races.
We’ve just seen what may be the first poll (albeit an internal poll) showing Dems with a lead in NC.
Conway is within a few points in KY, and I don’t think he’s really gone negative on Paul yet (at least not in the form of advertising dollars), which can’t be too hard to do at this point.
Reid’s situation in Nevada seems to improve by the day.
We’re likely to gain a Dem-caucusing independent in the Florida senate race, and our prospects improve in the governor’s race with every dollar that Rick Scott spends.
We’ve got a good chance in TWO open-seat governorships in red, southern states (Texas and Georgia). Any Georgians have an insight into who’s better to face in the general, Handel or Deal? My impression has been that Deal would be better for us, but I’m not quite sure.
Louisiana is still a hard nut to crack, but I think Chet’s primary challenge (even though it looks to be languishing right now) is a sign of some real division among Republicans about whether Vitter is acceptable anymore. I don’t think anyone should count Melancon out here.
Plus, our generic congressional ballot numbers have been increasing lately. I don’t want to get too optimistic or anything, but things look much better than they did a month or two ago, right?
Thoughts? Comments?
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
as the above post talked about Democratic prospects improving, PPP will have a poll out tomorrow showing Kelly Ayotte’s matchup with Paul Hodes the closest its been in any poll so far this year. She has also opened up a wide lead in the primary, thanks to the endorsement of Sarah Palin.
And as it relates to hair in California, a quite meaningless question, Boxer’s hair is favored by 5 points. (19-14).
I really like this ad, I think it will work.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
That said, I’ve grown to have mixed feelings about this one. I’m a cold-blooded realist, and I see only Crist as having a plausible path to victory among the two guys who would caucus with Team Blue.
But Meek is still my ideal choice, so I can’t help but be happy when he does good.
They have Proposition 19 up 52-36.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
Their sample has 40% saying they’ve smoked before, so take it for what it’s worth. I mean, it sounds reasonable, but that’s not usually a question that comes up in exit polls, so I guess we’ll never know for sure >.>
The sample was 77% age 50 and older.
Beyond silly.