Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch (pdf) (7/19-21, registered likely voters, no trendlines):
Robin Carnahan (D): 42
Roy Blunt (R): 48
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)
Mason-Dixon takes its first look at the Missouri Senate race; they are not the bearers of good news, finding Robin Carnahan down 6 in the race against Roy Blunt to claim the retiring GOPer Kit Bond’s seat. The big problem here seems to be Barack Obama’s approvals in this reddish-tilting state, which are a terrible 34/57, and may be rubbing off on Carnahan. (It may be a rather Republican-heavy sample, though: check out this one detail from the crosstabs. People say they “generally support” the agenda of the Tea Party movement 44/39. I’ve never seen numbers like that out of a swing state before, and come to think of it, I don’t I’ve ever seen 80% of a population have an opinion of the Tea Party before.)
Here’s one other interesting aside: it looks like the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has gotten a new pollster, as this is their first pairing with Mason-Dixon. Anybody remember who their previous pollster was? (Discussion is already underway in liberalpragmatist‘s diary.)
UPDATE: They also did an oversample of likely primary voters, finding that the GOP field here is a pretty big case of teabagger fail. State Sen. Chuck Purgason — one far-right anti-establishment challenger who didn’t seem to ever catch fire — is trailing Blunt 62-13 in the primary. Also, they took a look at Proposition C, which is a statewide ballot measure that will be decided on primary election day, not in November, and will attempt (unconstitutionally, I would imagine, seeing as how there’s this little thing called the Commerce Clause) to say that Missouri voters are exempt from federal penalties starting 2014 for not carrying health insurance. For some convoluted reason, they don’t release an aggregate result, but predict passage based on its support from 27% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans.
Was their last pollster.
I am really hoping that SoS Robin Carnahan can win this seat in November. I think a win here, and possibly one in KY and/or OH (and to a lesser extent NC) can even out our definite losses in AR and ND (and probably IN and DE). Any hope in maintaining somewhat of a majority of 54-59 Democratic senators (comfortable enough to ensure Crist will caucus with the dems, the majority) rests in the fact that we can win this seat and play offense in a couple of other places. I think she would be a great addition to the Senate and has the ability to win.
Only question is, how is her campaign and ground game so far? I know that there are many stories of McCaskill’s excellent campaign in 2006- anyone in MO have any stories/links/first hand accounts of Carnahan’s ground operations in MO right now? I really hope she can campaign hard and fight for this seat. I think this seat is extremely important, as well as OH, because they appear to be our best chances for offense, in a year where we will need offense to balance out our losses.
Carnahan’s campaign on the ground is well orchestrated and well-planed. She’s got something going for her with these “Stop the Bull” tours. I am a diehard Carnahan supporter, and I think she can win, she will win, but it will be under two points either way. She went to a Memorial Day event in KC and went to a Breat Cancer run (Highlighting that she is a breast cancer survivor). She has been trying, and suceeding at trying to be the advocate for the working Joe. However a five-letter word is making this very difficult for her, it’s not Claire (McCaskill), it’s not Nixon, but Obama. Roy Blunt’s campaign has been rather shaky, only recently getting out his first advertisments. If you’ll notice in his commericial you only see “Roy” with a picture of Missouri in the middle of the “O”. He doesn’t mention the name “Blunt”, which would remind them that he is the father of one of the worst governors in Missouri history.
don’t get why people think Obama is God. Paitience is a virtue and the American People seem not to realize that.
I’m clearly to the right of the average person on this blog, I can tell you that already. I get a sense that this blog had a large quanity of Bill Halter supporters…
not likely voters. Nothing in the report suggests likely voters:
http://bloximages.newyork1.vip…
It also shows Obama’s favorables at 33/55. Carnhan and Blunt have effectively the same personal numbers.
As for the disparity in party id, it could be that fewer people are willing to identify as democrats while more are willing to identify as Republicans. The 2008 electorate may no longer exist.
and whether or not it is skewed somewhat Rep, I think it just states what everybody knows *and why polling Missouri is a bit of s fool’s errand)… the race is tossup. Whoever gets the turnout and agenda/momentum/attention in October will win by a point or two.
On the positive side for Dems, Blunt is clearly the more dominant personality, meaning his screwups will be more hurtful than her screwups.
if both roy and rory! are only going by their first names, will the opposition go the extra length to emphasis their names come time for negative ads? also, does this mean we can call him roy! now?
n/t
I think we are starting to see people be more friendly to IDing themselves as Republicans in general. If this plays out across the country, this is probably the worse news the Democrats can receive. I think the largest thing holding the Republicans back at the moment from having a landslide is a general sense of unease towards Republicans.
If people are being more comfortable identifying themselves as Republicans or at least not having a hostile opinion towards Republicans, this means the Republicans can truly capitalize on Democratic weakness. Up to this point, the Republicans have been capitalizing on Democratic weakness, but not selling themselves as a viable alternative. If they can start selling themselves as a viable alternative, it no longer becomes a question of whether the Democrats lose the House, but how large the Republican majority will be. Additionally, the Senate would be obviously in play under such circumstances.
when their Nevada poll showed Reid leading Angle.
In a year that Democrats are slipping, Roy Blunt should be running away with this by double digits. On election day, this race is going to have a thin margin, 1% or 2% and I think Carnahan can pull it off, if Democrats turn out, in Missouri, it’s critical for a Democrat to have strong numbers to even have a shot of winning.